ATP Finals, Day 4 Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Andrey Rublev; Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

ATP Finals

Can the Red Group underdogs have their say on Wednesday? While Rublev and Tsitsipas are eyeing an upset, Djokovic and Medvedev will be seeking revenge in Turin.

WATCH: Andrey Rublev comes back from a set down to defeat Daniil Medvedev in the 2022 ATP Finals round robin stage.

Novak Djokovic vs. Andrey Rublev

Djokovic has plenty of history with most members of the ATP’s 20-something generation. Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Zverev: He’s played them many times, and on the biggest stages. Rublev? Not so much. The Serb and the Russian have met just twice. Djokovic won in straight sets at the ATP Finals a year ago, and Rublev won in three sets on clay in Belgrade this spring. The latter result should probably come with a semi-asterisk, as Djokovic was still getting his legs under him again after a two-month spell on the sidelines.

So this match will contain a little more mystery and novelty than many of the others we’ll see in Turin. One thing is clear, though: Djokovic will be the favorite. He beat Rublev on the same court 12 months ago, and he was in fine form in his straight-set opening win over Stefanos Tsitsipas two days ago.

But Rublev presents an interesting question at the moment: Namely, can he sustain the level and style of play that he used to beat Daniil Medvedev in a third-set tiebreaker on Monday? That performance was the one that many of us had been waiting to see from Rublev. Instead of belting every ball into oblivion, he played with patience and craft. He was 1-4 against Medvedev coming in, and had a history of losing close sets against his fellow Russian. This time Rublev beat Medvedev at his own steady game, and turned the tables by winning a close final set of his own, 9-7 in the tiebreaker. He even survived a 37-shot rally on his fifth match point.

Winning a point, and a match, like that represents progress for Rublev, the type that could move him into the next ranking tier, and deeper into majors, in 2023. More immediately, it’s also the type of performance he’ll need to beat Djokovic in Turin. Winner: Rublev

Daniil Medvedev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

Unlike the two players in the afternoon match, the evening-session combatants know each other well—a little too well, at times. Medvedev and Tsitsipas have had a word or two for each other in the past, and are unlikely to be on each other’s Christmas card lists anytime soon.

Medvedev leads their head-to-head 7-3, but that record is somewhat misleading. While he won their first five meetings, in 2018 and 2019, since then Tsitsipas has more than held his own. Starting at the ATP Finals at the end of 2019, Tsitsipas leads 3-2, and he’s coming off a win in their last meeting, in three sets in Cincinnati in August.

There’s plenty of motivation to go around this time. Both men had their moments on Monday, but both lost. Another defeat would mean near-elimination from the semifinals. Medvedev won’t want to lose two in a row to Tsitsipas for the first time. As for Tsitsipas, he couldn’t hide the disappointment on his face after his defeat to Djokovic in his opener; he has fought hard but come out on the losing end of some tight matches lately. That’s a pattern he’ll want to break as soon as possible.

Medvedev and Tsitsipas have each won this tournament once. Each is a good indoor player, and each is healthy. With all of those things being equal, what will be the difference-maker? Medvedev’s slightly superior serve? Tsitsipas’s slightly shakier backhand? Or could it be Tsitsipas’s attitude? Despite his recent defeats, he keeps making comebacks and keeps trying to get the crowd behind him. That could be just the kind of thing that gets him under Medvedev’s skin again. Winner: Tsitsipas