Astros vs. Blue Jays picks and odds: Kikuchi, Urquidy duel should spark offences

The Toronto Blue Jays look to keep their streak of undefeated series intact when they welcome the Houston Astros to town on Friday.

The pregame narrative: The Blue Jays are leaning on shaky southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, which means they could need a strong offensive game. Astros starter Jose Urquidy has been hit hard all year and could be what Toronto needs to get its lineup back on track.

Check out our top Astros vs. Blue Jays picks for April 29.

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Astros vs. Blue Jays picks overview

Astros vs. Blue Jays picks

Best bet: Both teams to score at least three runs (+105)

Last season, this pick would’ve been a no-brainer in a game between two of the three best run-scoring offences in baseball. Neither team has recreated its 2021 magic yet, though, and offence is down around the game. But this is still a reasonable bar to clear.

Read more: Astros vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 29

That’s especially true considering the pitchers on the mound, both of whom have struggled out of the gate in a number of important categories.

Pitcher ERA FIP xBA xSLG K/9 Urquidy 5.52 5.18 .331 .675 4.30 Kikuchi 3.75 5.60 .279 .488 6.75 League average 3.69 3.69 .249 .429 8.70

While the samples are small, Urquidy has been pummelled by hard contact while Kikuchi has a massive walk rate (7.50 BB/9) that’s led to a bloated FIP. Both pitchers are better than they’ve showed, but ZiPS projects Urquidy and Kikuchi for ERAs of 4.46 and 4.86, respectively, for the rest of the season. It’s not like they’re aces going through rough patches.

Read more: How to bet on the Blue Jays

Also, neither pitcher has particularly good results against his opponent. Current Blue Jays batters have hit .273 and slugged .477 off Urquidy, while current Astros have hit .238 and slugged .469 with stronger expected stats.

Both Kikuchi and Urquidy pitched against their Friday foes in their most recent start, and Urquidy gave up just one run, but with a 4.83 FIP and 94.3 exit velocity against. Kikuchi flamed out, allowing four runs (two earned) in 3.2 innings with five walks.

Key stat: The Blue Jays and Astros are a collective 25-14 scoring over three runs in 2022.

Quick picks

Springer over 1.5 bases (+110): Springer has cleared this prop in nine of his 17 complete games in 2022, thanks to solid power output, an aggressive approach (5.0 BB%) and the extra at-bats that come from hitting leadoff. He should thrive against Urquidy, who throws four-seam fastballs 57% of the time. Springer hasn’t slugged less than .533 against that pitch in any season since 2017.

Over 4.5 runs, first five innings (-105): This is similar to our best bet, but it insulates you from the possibility that one of the starters has a good — or lucky — day and either Houston or Toronto gets shut down. With this line, you don’t need both Urquidy and Kikuchi to struggle. Just one should be enough.

Odds courtesy of Sportingbet as of 9:55 a.m. ET on 04/29/2022. 

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Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne SHARE:

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