Astros Legendary Run of MLB Playoff Success Now Enters ‘Last Dance’ 2024 Season

Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

If it wasn’t already fair to wonder how long the Houston Astros can sustain as the biggest, baddest team in Texas, it is now.

Where the Astros are at this moment is lying in a heap at the feet of the Texas Rangers. Figuratively, of course, but in the background of this half-conjured image is a scoreboard that tells the literal truth of the tale.

Rangers 11, Astros 4 in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series.

And with that, Little Brother finally knocked down Big Brother.

The Rangers had dropped nine of 13 to the Astros in the regular season, including a few at home in embarrassing fashion. And so it went as the Astros took all three Championship Series contests at Globe Life Field after falling into an 0-2 hole at Minute Maid Park.

That the Astros would get the win they needed to close out the series and send Little Brother packing never seemed in real doubt. Momentum is one thing. Momentum plus history is another, and the Astros knew from having made four trips in six years between 2017 and 2022 what tickets to the World Series feel like.

Yet now that it’s not happening for Houston, there’s something weirdly not surprising about it.

It Doesn’t Take a Microscope to See Houston’s Diminishing Returns

Let’s back up and grant that the run the Astros have been on over the last seven seasons really is dynasty-level stuff.

They’ve won 631 out of the 1,032 regular-season games they’ve played, as well as 59 out of 97 postseason games. They’re one of only two teams to play in the League Championship Series in as many as seven years in a row, and any notion that they could only win championships by cheating went out the window when, unlike in 2017, they won it all fair and square in 2022.

But for all the dominance this signifies, the Astros of 2023 never really rose to the level of actually being dominant.

Not counting 2020, they won the American League West by an average of 12 games between 2017 and 2022. They won it by zero games this year, winning the division crown only by virtue of their head-to-head record against the Rangers.

Deterioration of Houston’s homefield advantage? Yup, that happened. And it was a thing well before Texas took all four games at Minute Maid Park in the LCS, as the Astros’ regular-season winning percentage somehow dropped under .500 this season.

Deterioration of Houston’s starting pitching? Yup, that too. The 1.22-point jump in ERA that Astros starters experienced from 2022 to 2023 was the largest in the American League.

Deterioration of the offense? Not as much, but the days when Houston’s offenses were easily placed next to the 1927 Yankees and other legendary lineups are long gone.

This Band Isn’t Made to Stay Together…Or Get Better

And now for another fair question: How much longer before the Astros are unrecognizable?

As it is, there’s still something weird about seeing them without Gerrit Cole, George Springer and Carlos Correa even though each has been gone for multiple seasons. Yet still more familiar faces could potentially be gone from Houston’s dugout soon, including the man in charge of said dugout.

That’s Dusty Baker, whose contract to manage the Astros does not extend beyond 2023. The man himself has confirmed nothing, but Brittany Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that Baker has privately expressed that this was his last season as a manager.

Other contracts about to expire include those of left fielder Michael Brantley and catcher Martín Maldonado. Put together they’re nearly Baker’s age (73, to be exact) and neither is coming away from this season with much to speak of.

Justin Verlander is one veteran who kept going strong for the Astros upon returning to the franchise after briefly running away to Queens, and it is largely on the Mets’ dime that he’s due to return for his age-41 season in 2024. If he can so much as replicate the 3.31 ERA he gave the Astros in 11 starts this season, that would be swell.

Yet the key phrase there is “age-41 season.” That’s not quite prime territory for pitchers, and the year Verlander just had shows that even three-time Cy Young Award winners and future Hall of Famers aren’t totally immune to time. At no point this year did he ever really resemble the guy who won 18 games with a 1.75 ERA in 2022.

Should he trigger a player option with 140 innings in 2024, it will at least be in Verlander’s hands whether to return in 2025. Not so for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, whose contracts are up at the end of next year.

Should the Astros fail to extend one or both of them, the club will be at risk of losing the only two stars who have been there every step of the way since 2017. Altuve and Bregman have secured their places in Astros lore along the way, specifically as the fifth- and eighth-best hitters in club history according to wins above replacement.

Some members of the core will still remain after 2024. Yordan “Baby Papi” Álvarez is signed all the way through 2028. It’s 2027 for Cristian Javier. There’s no such long-term certainty for Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker, but they’re at least under club control through 2025.

Compared to what Houston is used to, though, that’s not much of a foundation. And the pipeline for new talent? It’s running dry.

Though the caveat is that the Astros have something of a Midas Touch with unheralded youngsters, their farm system is nonetheless considered one of the worst in baseball right now. Even the worst according to some, including MLB.com and B/R’s own Joel Reuter.

2024 Must Be the Astros’ ‘Last Dance’ Year

In case anyone’s not getting the message, the great time the Astros have lived for the better part of the last decade is beginning to feel more like borrowed time.

Whatever plans the Astros draw up in the weeks to come, at least one must involve going all-in on 2024. Because while hope of success beyond next season may exist in some form, it’s not as plainly evident as what the Astros could accomplish in a year where they know for a fact they’ll still have Altuve, Bregman and Verlander.

Hopefully, Baker can be brought back for another season that would be part last hurrah and part retirement tour. But whether it’s Baker or someone else in the manager’s chair, it will be on general manager Dana Brown to go get the pieces the team lacked this year.

At least one more starting pitcher will be of chief importance, and Brown will have so many options on this winter’s market that there will be no excuse if he fails to do anything. If not a Blake Snell, an Aaron Nola or a Yoshinobu Yamamoto, an Eduardo Rodriguez or a Jordan Montgomery could make sense for Houston in free agency.

There are also bound to be goodies on the trade market, including post-2024 free agents like Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow and another guy that Houston is known to be fond of: Dylan Cease.

If the Astros really want to go for broke, they could aim to find a more stable regular for center field. Cody Bellinger will be out there in free agency. And who knows? While they’re listening on Cease, maybe the Chicago White Sox would reopen their ears on Luis Robert Jr.

Whatever the case, no stone should be too big for the Astros to turn over. They need to have the attitude that they’ve come too far and accomplished too much to go out like this; that lying in a heap at the feet of their Little Brother from Arlington is not the lasting image they want to leave behind.

They owe it to themselves to get up, dust themselves off and then come back and play like the Astros one last time.