As a former adviser under Theresa May, I know how Boris Johnson will rally support for the confidence vote

Sir Graham Brady is nothing if not discreet. The only indication that the threshold of 54 MPs expressing no confidence in the Prime Minister had been reached last night was when he asked his long-serving parliamentary secretary, Sybil Crowther, if she could perhaps be in a little early this morning. At 8am, his televised announcement that a no confidence vote is to be held this evening sent Westminster into a spin.

But it was a spin of which some remained unaware. Many bleary-eyed MPs, perhaps sleeping off some Jubilee weekend revelry, were awoken shortly after Sir Graham spoke by a message from Tory whips to get into Westminster pronto, for an optimistically-timed meeting of 9am. That was a physical impossibility for many, not least MPs many hundreds of miles away in their constituencies (and likely still in their pyjamas). When this was pointed out, the whips urged earlier trains to be taken, with the emphasis to be physically at Parliament as soon as possible. Already, the atmosphere was febrile, and many difficult conversations were taking place. There is plenty of legwork to be done today.

Some of this work has already been put in. In recent weeks, Boris Johnson has been hitting the phones hard, intimating that waverers may have jobs or promotions made available in a summer reshuffle the Prime Minister is keen to hold. Advisers in No 10 are working closely today with the whips office, both on the phones and physically in Parliament, speaking to as many MPs as possible, dangling all sorts of baubles, twisting arms and making promises.

Also at breakfast time, dozens of MPs were already on a train speeding from London to Tiverton to campaign in the upcoming by-election. I’m told one MP on that train, when phoned by another to be informed of the no confidence vote through a crackly phone line, was speechless when told of the news, and swiftly in a mild panic about how to get back to Westminster as soon as he could.

As a special adviser under the Theresa May administration, I know what the the threat of a no confidence vote is like. For the then-Prime Minister it loomed large in the autumn of 2018, as the Conservative Party tore itself apart over Brexit. In December 2018, it finally came, with Mrs May clinging on for a further six months after 63 per cent of her MPs voted for her.

That 63 per cent marker will be a crucial measure by which Boris Johnson will be judged this evening, when I predict he will win the no confidence vote. But by how much is critical – a Prime Minister cannot claim to be in control if a significant minority of his party just doesn’t think he is up to the job. Even asking the question has a psychological effect on MPs, who start thinking very carefully about their own future – their primary concern in all this – and whether Boris Johnson is still an electoral asset to them in 2024 as he was in 2019. Many feel that moment has passed.

Boris Johnson has few political friends left, relying in recent weeks on figures such as Nigel Adams, Nadine Dorries and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who have been with him since the start. This small number of natural allies highlights the transactional relationship the Prime Minister has had with so many MPs – including many of the 2019 intake who have not spent much time in Westminster due to lockdowns – and how that may come into play in the vote this evening.

Whilst a win in Tiverton is still possible and, many in the Conservative parliamentary party feel, worth fighting for, Wakefield is seen as lost, and that has a big effect on Red Wall MPs too. The question they will be asking today is whether Boris Johnson should lead them into a 2024 election where many, on current projections, would hugely struggle to retain their seats. The lack of a clear successor helps Boris Johnson, but many may feel rolling the dice now, two years out from an election, is the right time, especially as a leadership contest takes time.

Unlike the confidence vote in Mrs May four years ago, today is not about ideology, but a person. On paper, Boris Johnson is a successful Prime Minister, still with a 73-strong majority. But some will wonder just quite how he has gone, in three years, from that pinnacle of power to fighting for his political life.

Peter Cardwell was a special adviser to four Cabinet ministers in the May and Johnson administrations and his book, The Secret Life of Special Advisers, is published in paperback on 14 June. He is Political Editor of Talk TV