Arsenal’s Eddie Nketiah eventually delivers as backup striker, vindicates Mikel Arteta’s faith again at Palace

LONDON — For the vast majority of his Arsenal career, Eddie Nketiah has been defined by what he is not. He is not the free-wheeling forward who darts across the frontline, ready to give and go, teeing up his teammates for as many shots as he takes himself. He is not a forward you can launch the ball to and expect it to stick. He is not the sort of superstar scorer who some of the most vituperative members of the online fanbase deem to be a worthy successor to the No. 14 shirt of Thierry Henry and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

In the avalanche of listing what he can’t do, his one exceptional quality is smothered. Perhaps in a previous age, where strikers were scorers, the fact that Nketiah keeps getting into positions to take high-grade shots would not be so quickly discounted. Remove that particular superpower of their 24-year-old forward, however, and Arsenal might not have two wins from their first two games.

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Nketiah might have put Arsenal on a more comfortable path in this one, it is fair to say. His clipped finish onto the roof of Sam Johnstone’s net was a dreary end to a move that deserved far better, the exceptional Declan Rice barrelling through midfield to deliver the perfect through ball into the path of a close friend with whom he shares the dubious privilege of being cast out from the Chelsea academy at an early age only to go on to greater things than many of those who stayed.

That shot was by far the worst of three misses that Nketiah delivered in 79 minutes before he was withdrawn for Jorginho as the 10 men of Arsenal clung on to their one-goal lead over Crystal Palace in the aftermath of Takehiro Tomiyasu’s second yellow. The miss could well have haunted Nketiah. Had Arsenal not found their way through, questions would inevitably have been asked as to whether the void left by Gabriel Jesus would be better filled by Leandro Trossard or indeed the man who blew through Ligue 1 last season, Folarin Balogun, who is the academy graduate up top Arsenal are looking to cash in on.

Focus would have been drawn to Nketiah’s record in front of goal. He is not a prodigious finisher of big chances, it is fair to say. Since the start of the 2020-21 Premier League season, Nketiah has taken 88 shots in 2461 minutes. Those efforts were worth a combined 15.5 expected goals (xG). They were converted into 12 goals. His shot map below has an awful lot of high-value opportunities gone to waste.

Shots taken by Eddie Nketiah in the Premier League, sized by xG value. Twenty3

But to criticize him for not overperforming his xG is to fail to fully appreciate what sets out top strikers. There is the odd forward, Lionel Messi and Erling Haaland the obvious examples, who have proven they can continually break xG models. They are in the minority, however. What sets aside the best forwards is that they keep getting in those spots. So did Nketiah at Selhurst Park, as he has done on a consistent basis in an Arsenal shirt.

He might be underperforming the value of his shots but per 90 minutes he is averaging 0.59 non-penalty xG. It is a short list of forwards who better him over the last three and a bit seasons: Diogo Jota, Gareth Bale, Darwin Nunez and Haaland. All four of those have gone through runs where everything they touch turns to goals. Considering the qualities that Nketiah is blessed with and has honed on the training ground, it is hard to believe that a similar hot streak won’t eventually come.

There is something preternatural about his ability to anticipate where a ball might break. It keeps happening, just like how rebounds kept founding their way into the hands of Dennis Rodman because he just seemed to know where the ball was going to spin. His first prime effort coming from high Arsenal pressure that he was so often one of the leading tyros in. As Bukayo Saka squirmed the ball towards the penalty area, Nketiah was on the shoulder of Palace’s two center backs. His turn took him away from Joachim Andersen, his strength enough to ride Marc Guehi’s challenge and get a shot off that squirmed off the post.

Nketiah probed and probed again. When someone does so often enough, a defender will react too late to his movement or deliver a tackle that instant too late. Not for nothing did Mikel Arteta make a point, unprompted, of saying that Nketiah had “earned us the right to go ahead with his action.” His dart across the Palace defense to attack the right side of the box was doubtless aided by Thomas Partey’s blocking — deemed legitimate by VAR — but his pace and touch was enough to beat Sam Johnstone to the ball and earn Martin Odegaard the opportunity to win the game.

That is the bare minimum you can ask for from your striker. Unfortunately for Nketiah, Gabriel Jesus offers that quality of getting into scoring chances plus all the build-up of a modern forward. For now, however, he is not ready to take up the mantle. In the meantime, Arsenal will need a player who gets his shots up, particularly in games where they are trying to break down a diligent defense. In such circumstances, there is only one number Arteta needs to call.