Arsenal vs Brentford: Declan Rice breaks deadlock at Emirates

For all Arsenal’s near-perfect football since January’s winter break, home games against Brentford and Porto within four days have the potential to shape their season for better or worse. 

The first of two high-pressure matches comes this evening against Brentford, where victory would take Mikel Arteta’s team top of the Premier League on the eve of Liverpool vs Manchester City. Were that to be a draw, Arsenal would remain top of the league on goal difference going into the international break. 

There are echoes of last April’s Friday night home game against Southampton which, like today’s game, came before Arsenal’s trip to the Etihad. Everyone expected them to win comfortably against a team who were eventually relegated, but Arsenal found themselves 2-0 down inside 14 minutes. Aaron Ramsdale made an error in the first minute that night, and he will start today because David Raya cannot face his parent club.

The difference nearly a year on is Arsenal are far more stable defensively. Arteta’s team may have scored 31 goals in seven games, but in many ways the real story of their run is how little they are giving away. They are suffocating opponents, not conceding more than 0.5 expected goals in any game of this seven-match run. That is enabling them to kill games early, substitute key players and conserve emotional energy.

Brentford pose a threat through their front two of Ivan Toney and Yoane Wissa, and have a formula for facing the big clubs which can prove awkward. Thomas Frank uses a 5-3-2, and Brentford either squeeze very high to box teams in or drop very deep and deny space. You rarely see them stretched and caught between the two stools. Nevertheless, Brentford are seriously depleted in defence with Ben Mee, Ethan Pinnock, Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry all injured, while forward Bryan Mbuemo is some way from a comeback.

Full team news on the way shortly.