Are analytics to blame for Rays’ Kevin Cash pulling Blake Snell too early from Game 6 of 2020 World Series?

Regrets, he’s had a few.

Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash is no doubt kicking himself today after having an early hook with ace Blake Snell in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series.

Cash pulled Snell after he dominated the Los Angeles Dodgers over 5.1 innings, striking out nine batters on just 73 pitches.

But in the top of the sixth inning, the Dodgers were about to get their third look at Snell, something that Cash wanted to avoid. Per MLB.com:

“The only motive was that the lineup the Dodgers feature is as potent as any team in the league. I felt Blake had done his job and then some. Mookie [Betts] coming around the third time through, I value that. I totally respect and understand the questions that come with [the decision]. Blake gave us every opportunity to win. He was outstanding. These are not easy decisions. … I felt it was best after the guy got on base — Barnes hit the single — I didn’t want Mookie or [Corey] Seager seeing Blake a third time through. As much as people think that sometimes, there’s no set plan. This organization’s tremendous about giving the staff the trust to make in-game decisions to give us the best chance to win. I respect what unfolded today was pretty tough.”

Cash’s argument about no set plan doesn’t hold up when looking at the numbers. The top of the Dodgers’ lineup — Mookie Betts, Corey Seager and Justin Turner — were 0-for-6 with six strikeouts against Snell on Tuesday.

Yet a closer look at the analytics suggests Cash’s mind was made up before Snell even took the mound. According to Baseball Reference, Snell made into the sixth inning four times this season. His ERA in the sixth inning: 13.50.

Six times this season Snell had to face an opposing lineup for the third time in a single game. Teams hit .304 with a .609 OBP and .913 OPS on their third look at Snell.

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Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young Award winner, was not happy with the early hook. Per MLB.com:

“I felt so confident in how I adjusted after they saw me the second time and knew what I was going to do a third time. I just believed in myself and what I did to hopefully see them a third time through — and a fourth time, if needed. I wanted to go that far into the game. It was everything I wanted to do. Just empty the tank and see how far I can go. I felt like I did everything I possibly could to succeed against that Dodgers lineup, which is really hard to do because of how talented they are, so I don’t know. I want to be the guy that goes out there. If they beat me, they beat me. But if I beat them, I beat them. That’s how I was looking at it.”

After Snell left the game, the Dodgers rallied for a 3-1 win to claim the franchise’s first World Series title since 1988.

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