Another Al Kazeem or Defoe? Graeme Rodway on the London Gold Cup contenders

River Alwen: has a tough task off such a high rating

Tim Goode (Getty Images)

3.00 NewburyBetVictor London Gold Cup Handicap | 1m2f | 3yo | ITV/RTV

There aren’t many, if any, handicaps run all season that boast a recent roll of honour as illustrious as the London Gold Cup and that includes those run at the holy grail, Royal Ascot.

Al Kazeem (2011), Cannock Chase (2014) and Defoe (2017) all went on to win Group/Grade 1s after using this as a stepping stone, while Time Test (2015), Communique (2018) and Headman (2019) all won Group 2s. So could we be set to see another star this season?

There is every chance because topweight this year, River Alwen, runs off a mark of 101 and that is higher than the top weight was rated for all bar three of the last nine runnings. 

River Alwen has a tough task off such a high rating, though. No horse has won this off a mark higher than 95 in the last nine runnings and six of the last nine winners were rated between 83 and 89 coming in. It’s clearly a race where smart, unexposed three-year-olds often sneak in off lenient marks and there is no shortage of those types in this year’s contest.

Roger Charlton trained three of the six subsequent Group winners previously mentioned and he isn’t represented, but Roger Varian and Mark Johnston were responsible for two of the others and both have runners here. Varian saddles Dubawi Sands while Johnston has King Frankel.

Dubawi Sands carries the same colours as Varian’s 2017 winner Defoe and he has a similar profile, too. Defoe also came into the contest after just three runs, although he had achieved a career-best Racing Post Rating 5lb higher than Dubawi Sounds and raced off only 2lb higher. 

King Frankel won by a distance rarely seen on the Flat at Pontefract last time. He scored by a remarkable 32 lengths, but that was good enough for an RPR of only 85 and that is 4lb lower than the best figure Communique posted before his win. King Frankel also races off a mark of 82, which is 2lb lower than Communique’s winning mark, so he may be short of the standard.

Tamborrada: unbeaten in three starts

Alan Crowhurst / Getty Images

Five of the last nine winners had run three times or less, which brings in Tamborrada, Highland Rocker, Bay Bridge and Oz Legend, along with the aforementioned Dubawi Sands. 

Charlie Appleby (Tamborrada), John and Thady Gosden (Highland Rocker) and Sir Michael Stoute (Bay Bridge) saddle three of those five but – bar Stoute (only 1-6 since 2011) who won this race with Cannock Chase in 2014 – those leading yards don’t appear on the recent roll of honour.Race analysis by Graeme Rodway

‘It’s worth taking a punt at a big race like this’ – Greystoke could outrun odds

While it might be wholly unrealistic to envisage bottomweight Greystoke following in the career path of previous winners of this race, it is by no means improbable he could get his name on the London Gold Cup roll of honour.

The improving three-year-old, who gets in off a mark of 80, could surprise some better-fancied rivals from a good draw in stall one.

There was lots to like about the manner in which Greystoke accelerated inside the final furlong to land a Class 4 Redcar handicap last month on ground that may have been faster for him than ideal.

The London Gold Cup is renowned as the most ferociously competitive three-year-old middle-distance handicap this side of Royal Ascot, and Greystoke will need to take another significant step forward.

However, Jack Channon, assistant to his father Mick who trains Greystoke, believes the colt could run a huge race.

“He’s improved since we decided to ride him more patiently during his races, winning at Wolverhampton and Redcar,” Channon said.

“This is a big step up in class but the trip will suit him and it’s worth taking a punt at a big race like this with no weight on his back. He’s by Sixties Icon so will definitely like the ground.”

What they say

John Gosden, co-trainer of Highland RockerIf he handles the ground he should run a nice race and he’s a genuine horse who always gives his best.

Roger Varian, trainer of Dubawi SandsHe’s a lovely little horse and very much goes under the radar at home – he’s not a flashy worker, but he’s done nothing wrong on the track. We hope he’ll handle conditions, although we don’t really know, but ten furlongs on a galloping track should be right up his street. It looks a very good London Gold Cup. He’s hard to gauge at home as he’s very laid-back in his work but we’ll learn a bit more about him on Saturday.

Hugo Palmer, trainer of Oz LegendHe ran well on his reappearance at Windsor where we felt the ground was lively enough for him. He’ll be better suited by the ground at Newbury and he’s definitely come forward for the run. He’ll need to have done, though, as it’s always a very competitive race. He’s got a lovely low weight and is a horse we’ve been looking forward to this year. I think he’s the type who will keep on improving throughout the season.Reporting by Richard Birch 

Read more of Saturday’s previews:

‘Palace Pier had not even run when the race was last staged in 2019’

Last call for John Leeper and Wordsworth to book their tickets to Epsom 

3.35 Newbury: Find out what John Gosden has to say about Lockinge Stakes favourite Palace Pier

Why we could witness the greatest Lockinge winner since the mighty Frankel

1.50 Newbury: ‘We wanted Ryan’ – why Karl Burke favoured Newbury over Newmarket for Spycatcher

2.05 Newmarket: Is the hype about John Leeper justified? Tom Collins on a tricky Fairway Stakes

2.25 Newbury: St Leger hero Logician on the comeback trail but Al Aasy poses a stern test

2.40 Newmarket: ‘The bookmakers have it right’ – exciting Bellosa tests Royal Ascot claims

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FIRST PUBLISHED 6:00PM, MAY 14 2021