Anger as Manchin kills Democrats’ climate plans – what happens now?

Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator who has made millions of dollars through his founding of a coal-trading company in his home state of West Virginia, has seemingly sunk fellow Democrat and US president Joe Biden’s hopes of passing a major bill to combat the climate crisis.

What happened?

Manchin, a centrist Democrat, is a crucial swing vote in a US Senate split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. For nearly two years, the White House and fellow Democrats have tried to prod Manchin to support a sweeping package of support for renewable energy and electric vehicles. Manchin has now indicated he won’t do so – at least not yet – further jeopardizing Democrats’ agenda before the midterm elections in November, which are likely to result in the party losing control of Congress to the Republicans.

Why has he done this?

Manchin has said he is concerned about inflation, which is now at a 40-year high. Backing a $300bn bill to offer tax credits and other support to clean energy would, he argues, push costs higher for Americans, although several experts have disputed this.

Manchin is also very wary of any measures that would curb fossil fuel production for the same reason, citing rising gasoline prices. “If there’s people that don’t want to produce more fossils, then you got a problem,” he said on Monday.

A less charitable view of Manchin is that he is dangerously conflicted due to his own investments in fossil fuels (his coal firm, Enersystems, made him about $500,000 in 2020, more than double his Senate salary) and that his judgement has been warped by the largesse of the industry, which has donated more money to him than any other senator.

Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University, described Manchin as “a modern-day villain, who drives a Maserati, lives on a yacht, courtesy of the coal industry, and is willing to see the world burn as long as it benefits his near-term investment portfolio”.

What will the impact be?

Unusually for a major economic power, the US does not have a national climate or energy policy in place, and with Republicans set to seize control of at least one chamber of Congress in November, the chances are it will continue to lack one for several years, at least.

Republicans have shown no interest in passing any meaningful climate legislation, even when it involves handing tax breaks for companies, so analysts expect this ongoing status quo will mean the US misses its emissions reduction goals. Rhodium Group, a research house, this week forecast that Joe Biden’s goal of cutting emissions in half this decade will fall well short without a climate bill.

The consequences of this will be severe – not only for the US, currently racked by record heatwaves and wildfires, but for the world. Scientists say planet-heating emissions must be rapidly reduced this decade before being eliminated by 2050 to avoid breaching internationally-agreed temperature limits and plunge the world into disastrous climate change, with worsening heatwaves, fires, floods, drought and biodiversity loss.

“Senator Manchin has condemned his own grandchildren to a broken planet,” said Leah Stokes, a climate policy expert at University of California, Santa Barbara. “His actions will be recorded in the fossil record for centuries to come.”

What has been the reaction?

Among Democrats and climate activists, it has been a mixture of anger, frustration and despair.

“It is tragic that the whims of one elected official can derail months of tedious efforts, jeopardize the health and well-being of all Americans, and threaten the future of our planet,” said Donald McEachin, a Democratic Congressman.

Some have attempted defiance, demanding that Biden flex his muscles as president and enact various executive orders that would help drive down emissions from power plants, cars, trucks and other sources. The opportunities are tenuous, however – not only do Democrats face defeat in November, any presidential rule making would take time and could be struck down by a rightwing Supreme Court that has already limited the Environmental Protection Agency’s ability to limit coal plant emissions.

For Manchin’s part, he has said he may change his mind when new inflation figures come out next month, elongating the saga even further. “I guess they just tried to put pressure on me,” Manchin said of fellow Democrats in a radio interview on Friday. “But they’ve been doing that for over a year now – it doesn’t make any sense at all.”

What can Joe Biden do now?

Biden, billed as America’s first climate president, has seen much of his agenda go up in smoke. But not having to appease Manchin any longer could allow the president to take some strong actions he has held off on to retain harmony with the pro-fossil fuel senator.

He could direct the Environmental Protection Agency to establish national limits for greenhouse gases or enact new curbs on power plant pollution, in line with the Supreme Court edict. The president’s administration could also bring in strict new pollution requirements for new cars, end oil and gas drilling leases on federal land and waters and use the Defense Production Act to ramp up the manufacture of clean energy technology.

Cities and states concerned about the climate crisis will also likely try to fill the breach, although most experts doubt that this piecemeal approach will be an adequate substitute for a comprehensive national plan.