Analysis: City Of Troy has the potential to be spellbinding – but are there any dangers to a 2,000 Guineas-Derby double?

Scott Burton explores what dangers – both in his makeup and on the track – City Of Troy may face in his potential bid for a 2,000 Guineas-Derby double after a scintillating performance in the Dewhurst

It seems a stretch to believe the Ballydoyle team would ever break out into a football chant, but City Of Troy’s performance in the Dewhurst Stakes had shades of “and now you’re gonna believe us” about it.

Ninety-one days on from his dominant performance in the Superlative Stakes on the July course, the European two-year-old landscape has changed a fair bit. But through the emergence of Vandeek, Henry Longfellow and Rosallion as Group 1-winning colts, Aidan O’Brien kept reminding everyone in his own quiet way that City Of Troy was the real deal. 

Pre-race he admitted live on ITV that the colt could be vulnerable on the gluey ground, while in the immediate aftermath of a devastating Dewhurst success, Ryan Moore as much as admitted that his partner was a little rusty after his time away from the track.

If this is what vulnerability looks like then City Of Troy has the undoubted potential to produce some truly spellbinding performances once he gets his ideal set-up. 

But what will those perfect conditions be in terms of trip and track profile, and will he have so much in hand over the rest of his age group that he can continue to shrug off handicaps as he did here?

City Of Troy powers clear of his rivals in the DewhurstCredit: Edward Whitaker

Given how brilliantly his two-year-old flagbearers City Of Troy, Opera Singer and Ramatuelle have performed this summer and autumn, it is hard to keep in your head the idea that Justify is a young sire with only two crops of racing age.

All three of those juveniles look like they will have much more to give next year, but we don’t have a ton of evidence as to how Justify’s stock trains on. 

Let’s grant City Of Troy further good luck in the genetic lottery – after all, Justify did all his running and winning at three – and ask a more straightforward question; does he have the attributes of a Guineas and/or a Derby winner? 

He’s won on the Rowley Mile and the July course and appears to be beautifully balanced, meaning the bookmakers have all but given him the Guineas already. 

To me his greatest quality is how he appears to float over the ground, whatever the underfoot conditions, and on Saturday he gave the illusion that he was barely making a print in the turf, despite the evidence of the field as a whole kicking up plenty of sod. 

His overall physique is not worryingly long or leggy, and in my mind’s eye he swoops down the hill and around Tattenham Corner like he’s on rails. And both in the way he finishes off over seven furlongs and on pedigree, he has an outstanding chance of staying a mile and a half. 

Just think back to his debut when he almost took Moore through the boards at the end of the Curragh. He’ll keep running. 

We still have the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster to come, and Ancient Wisdom looked a potential Derby rival in the Autumn Stakes 35 minutes before the Dewhurst, although his exaggerated knee action would be a worry at Epsom.

Rosallion and Richard Hannon after the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at LongchampCredit: Edward Whitaker

If there is a bar to City Of Troy completing a Guineas and Derby double, might it be in the first leg? 

It is very hard to see any of his Dewhurst victims getting closer next spring, but Rosallion threw down a serious challenge in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp in a scintillating time on fast ground.

On a strict line through Henry Adams, he has two and a half lengths to find with City Of Troy, but Richard Hannon believes Rosallion is the best juvenile they have had since Canford Cliffs, an opinion born out by the ratings.

Winter dreams will be warm ones for the entourages of both colts, while for us 2024 promises much.

2024 2,000 Guineas

Coral: Evens City Of Troy, 4 Henry Longfellow, 12 Ancient Wisdom, Ghostwriter, Rosallion, 16 Diego Velazquez, River Tiber, Task Force, 20 bar

2024 Derby

Coral: 5-2 City Of Troy, 8 Diego Velazquez, Henry Longfellow, 16 Ghostwriter, 25 Ancient Wisdom, Illinois, 33 Arabian Queen, By The Book, Capulet, Los Angeles

Read more on City Of Troy:

‘He could be our Frankel’ – stunning City Of Troy lavished with praise after barnstorming Dewhurst win  

Aidan O’Brien says City Of Troy is the best two-year-old he’s trained – could he really be Coolmore’s Frankel?  

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