Alexander Isak to Newcastle: The ideal striker for Eddie Howe’s high-press system

Alexander Isak is used to hype. Long dubbed “the new Zlatan Ibrahimovic” and celebrated by his former Sweden coach for “rewriting history” with the national team, the striker’s profile is only going to grow further now he is set to move to the Premier League and become Newcastle United’s club-record signing.

The 22-year-old has repeatedly been linked with Europe’s top clubs — Arsenal are thought to be long-term admirers — but he is Tyneside-bound in what the Newcastle hierarchy hope will prove to be another inspired coup, following the January addition of Bruno Guimaraes.

If the fee agreed with Real Sociedad, around £60million ($70.7m) initially and with potential add-ons, seems staggering, then it highlights the belief Newcastle have in his ability. There is, however, a degree to which some around Newcastle accept this is a calculated gamble, like the club took with Guimaraes, in the hope that Isak fulfils his colossal potential on Tyneside.

Steve Nickson, Newcastle’s head of recruitment, is a long-term admirer of Isak, viewing the Sweden international as almost the perfect profile for a modern-day striker. Isak is quick, tall, agile and adaptable; part of a new breed of centre-forward, alongside Darwin Nunez and Erling Haaland.

It does not appear coincidental that Newcastle have made such an aggressive move during the week Callum Wilson was sent for a scan on his hamstring. The 30-year-old’s injury is not serious — he is expected to be sidelined for around three weeks, although the club have not provided a timeframe — but it is the latest in a long line of fitness problems and, without Wilson, Newcastle desperately lack firepower.

Eddie Howe, the head coach, has sought attacking reinforcements all summer and he remains keen to bring in a winger and midfielder.

But why have Newcastle identified Isak as a key part of the solution to their offensive shortcomings? Who is he? And what will he bring to Howe’s side?

Isak will arrive at Newcastle amid understandable excitement, given his undoubted ability, but also with much still to prove.

Born in Stockholm to Eritrean parents, Isak signed for AIK as a six-year-old and quickly established himself as a child prodigy.

He made his first-team debut at 16 and became AIK’s youngest-ever scorer, before repeating the feat for Sweden by scoring for the senior side aged 17 years and 113 days.

Such achievements brought obvious comparisons with Ibrahimovic — easy to make, given their shared nationality, similar height, Isak is 6ft 3in (190cm), and position. The pair were soon international team-mates, too, with Ibrahomvic labelling Isak as a “fantastic” talent.

Borussia Dortmund, renowned for nurturing promising youngsters, acquired the then-17-year-old, but what appeared a shrewd move turned into a difficult one. During two years in Germany, Isak played under four coaches and flitted between the first team and reserves, scoring only one senior goal.

There was, however, a successful loan to Willem II in the Eredivisie in 2018-19 — Isak scored 12 goals in his first 12 league games, the first foreign-born player to do so in the Netherlands — which caught the attention of Sociedad. The Spanish club acquired Isak for around €10million (£8.4million, $10million) and, in 105 La Liga appearances, he scored 33 times.

With nine goals in 37 Sweden appearances, Isak is already experienced at the top level for someone of his age. He played at Euro 2020, when Gary Lineker described him as an “exceptional talent”, while he lifted the Copa del Rey with Sociedad in 2020 and featured in the Europa League.

Yet, following a prolific 2020-21 campaign, when he scored 17 goals in 34 league appearances, his form dipped last season, netting just six times in 32 games. That is perhaps why there are questions surrounding Newcastle’s decision to place their faith in Isak, given scouts from Europe’s top clubs have tracked him for years and none have met Sociedad’s asking price.

Isak describes himself as a “modern striker”, one who presses from the front and uses his pace and power to unsettle opposition defences, which is precisely the type of forward Newcastle were hoping to add.

Last season, he primarily played as a lone striker in a 4-2-3-1 formation. But he also featured in partnerships, too, being deployed in a 4-4-2 alongside Alexander Sorloth and in the middle of a 4-3-3, as shown below.

Howe’s preferred system since December has been a 4-3-3 — Newcastle have almost exclusively played that way — and Isak is viewed as someone who can play both instead of and alongside Wilson.

There are suggestions that, long term, Isak may develop into Wilson’s successor, given the England striker turns 31 in February and has had fitness issues. Should Wilson’s hamstring injury keep him out for a few matches, as expected, then Isak and Chris Wood will directly compete for the central striker berth in the short term.

Once Wilson returns, though, he and Isak could feature in the same XI. Whether that means an alternative system is unclear, but it is understood that part of the reason why there was unanimous approval among Newcastle’s recruitment team concerning Isak is because he is viewed as someone who can play across the front line. He rarely did so at Sociedad but, as a player comfortable with both feet, he could, in theory, slot in on the right or left of Newcastle’s front three.

Isak prefers to be in a team who enjoy a greater share of the ball, too, and Howe is attempting to increase Newcastle’s possession statistics. “It’s easier for me when the team has the ball, it suits me,” Isak told Swedish outlet Sportbladet. “We want the football; it’s a show of courage.”

To best display Isak’s style, we can use smarterscout — a free-to-use site that employs advanced analytics to break down elements of a footballer’s game into different performance, skill and style metrics, which can be displayed in a “pizza chart”. The ratings are adjusted for the Premier League standard of a player in his position and are out of 99.

As Isak’s smarterscout pizza chart below shows, his main strength is his dribbling ability. Last season, across 1,992 league minutes as a striker, Isak’s carry and dribble volume was 97 out of 99, illustrating his willingness to run with the ball. Allan Saint-Maximin, Miguel Almiron, Joe Willock and Joelinton also carry possession well, so Isak should complement their style.

Interestingly, Isak also receives the ball frequently in advanced areas, with his receptions in the box rating 84 out of 99, while he is also quick to get his shot away, with the forward renowned for his first-time efforts. His shot volume per attacking touches is 93 out of 99, which is high.

Despite his height, Isak is not particularly strong in the air, which is why his aerial duels quantity is just 17 out of 99.

There are striking similarities with Wilson when it comes to Isak’s ability to drive forward with possession and shoot frequently. Wilson’s smarterscout pizza chart for 2021-22 is shown below, and his shot volume is identical to Isak’s (93 out of 99), while his carry and dribble volume is also fairly high (75 out of 99).

Their shared keenness to take shots on early with one-touch finishes contributes to their likeness in style.

According to smarterscout, Wilson and Isak have a 90.3 per cent “similarity score”. Only three players under 30 who operated in the Premier League last season — Danny Welbeck, Romelu Lukaku and Ollie Watkins — are deemed by this model to be more similar to Isak.

Given Wilson is Howe’s ideal striker for his front-foot, high-press system, Isak should fit seamlessly into the Newcastle side. Armando Broja and Dominic Calvert-Lewin appear on that list, too, and they were both considered as potential striker options this summer, with Howe a long-term admirer of the Everton forward.

The most prolific season of Isak’s career came in 2020-21, when he scored 17 times in 34 league games at a rate of 0.65 non-penalty goals per 90. That was the fourth-highest in La Liga and level with Atletico Madrid’s Luis Suarez.

Isak’s shot map from that season is displayed below, with the average distance of his efforts being 12.9 yards. He outperformed his expected goals (xG) — a metric that measures the quality of a shot and the likelihood of scoring it — of 14.7 during that campaign.

Yet, last season, Isak significantly underperformed when it came to his xG, which itself was almost half the campaign before. He scored four goals, despite an xG of 8.6, while his xG per shot fell from to 0.19 to 0.12.

He tends to be a streaky player, who goes on impressive scoring runs. In 2019-20, for example, he scored 12 goals in as many games, including two against Real Madrid and one against Barcelona.

But Isak is also a creator, as well as a finisher.

The graphic below displays his chance-creating carries last season, some which end in his own shots and others which lead to opportunities for his team-mates.

This offers a visual representation of Isak’s propensity to pick the ball up in “half-spaces” and drive centrally from wider positions. Although he did so primarily as a centre-forward for Sociedad, Newcastle perhaps feel he could also do so successfully from either the left or the right positions, if he is playing alongside Wilson.

Clearly, at 22, Isak is far from the finished article. But, like Hugo Ekitike, another priority target this summer who opted to join Paris Saint-Germain instead, Isak is viewed as a prodigious young talent who can potentially improve into a top-class operator at Newcastle.

(Lead graphic: Sam Richardson)