Albo’s ‘Yes bubble’: How Anthony Albanese was in denial about the overwhelming opposition to the referendum because he spent most of his time in Left-leaning, Voice-loving …

All the areas where Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spends the most of his time were strongly in favour of the Indigenous Voice to Parliament – in stark contrast with most of Australia. 

The support Mr Albanese felt – and saw – within his own bubble may account for why he was in denial about polls that accurately predicted the country was set to resoundingly vote ‘No’ to the Voice.

Just last week, Mr Albanese rubbished results of a survey produced by UK-based firm Focal Data, which suggested just 22 out of 151 electorates would support the proposal, and that it was on track for a defeat in every state.

‘I have seen reports, I’m amazed that they actually get written, that seems to be based on some UK company based upon modelling without talking to anyone,’ Mr Albanese said.

‘I mean frankly, I’ve been in politics a long time… the idea that you have individual seat polling, without any figures or any detail of how many people were contacted.’

All the electorates where Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spends the most of his time were strongly in favour of the Indigenous Voice to Parliament (pictured) – in stark contrast with most of the nation

FocalData’s polling suggested the Voice would fail 39 per cent to 61 per cent on a national scale, which was almost spot on based on Saturday’s result. 

The referendum succeeded in 27 electorates – just five more than FocalData prediction of 22. 

The poll was based on online sampling of 4,500 voters and advanced modelling techniques.

Among the Yes voting electorates were the PM’s own seat of Grayndler in Sydney’s inner west – which had the second highest amount of support in the nation, with 74 per cent of voters (about 65,000 people) casting a Yes vote. 

The PM also spends plenty of time in Canberra, where he lives at the Lodge and works out of Parliament House. The Australian Capital Territory was the only state or Territory jurisdiction to support the proposal, with all three seats voting Yes. 

Even Kirribilli House – his official home in Sydney – was firmly in the Yes camp with 59 per cent voting Yes.  

The overwhelming support within Mr Albanese’s bubble may have skewed his perception of how the Voice was being dealt with in communities around the nation.

Inner city electorates were the most likely to support the proposal. It was less likely constituents would vote Yes further out into the suburbs of major cities.

The overwhelming support within Mr Albanese’s bubble may have skewed his perception of how the Voice was being dealt with in communities around the nation

Just as Focal Data – and every other poll in the nation – predicted, the Voice to Parliament was defeated in every single state. 

There are seven electorates still too close to call. Five of those are tentatively on track to vote Yes.

The data firm’s chief data operator, James Kanagasooriam, took to social media platform X after Saturday night’s results to address the PM’s criticism.

‘Our survey was criticised by the Australian PM in which he openly scoffed at the idea of NT areas voting for No, and the concept of seat level forecasts, referring to us as a ‘Random U.K. company’. 

‘Hopefully we will become a little bit less random to the Australian public now,’ he said.

‘Albanese has traded a centrist, mixed rural/urban coalition for one that more closely resembles the politics of his own seat of Grayndler where voters are disproportionately concerned with Indigenous affairs, racism and the environment vs the rest of Australia that is far more concerned with economics.’ 

A government spokesperson told Daily Mail Australia that booths with a high population of Indigenous voters supported the proposal.

The PM and Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney conceded defeat on Saturday night, but vowed to continue fighting for First Nations matters

‘The Prime Minister heard the call from the Uluṟu Statement from the Heart and responded. He said he would hold a referendum and he delivered,’ a spokesperson said.

‘We saw strong support for the Voice in booths where there is a higher population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and where there was multi-partisan support.’

Mr Kanagasooriam admitted prior to the result that the data may have been skewed in wealthy Teal electorates.

His data suggested affluent Teal held suburbs would go separate ways on the Voice, with Kylea Tink’s North Sydney voting Yes while Monique Ryan’s Kooyong and Allegra Spender’s Wentworth would narrowly vote No.

In Warringah, which includes wealthy suburbs on the lower northern beaches, support for the Voice in the latest poll sat at about 44 per cent, meanwhile it dropped to 37 per cent in the upper northern beaches suburbs of Mackellar. 

But in a report predicting potential model errors, the firm said: ‘We could well be structurally underestimating the Yes vote across Teal seats – qualitative assessment certainly suggests so.’

In reality, all the Teal electorates voted in favour of the proposal, with counting still underway in Mackellar but the Yes vote narrowly ahead at 50.1 per cent.

The 22 electorates FocalData forecast to vote Yes to the Voice – and if they did or not

From highest support to those just scraping through, these are the electorates across the nation Focal Data predicted would vote Yes on October 14 

The electorates that actually went on to vote Yes in the referendum are highlighted bold

The electorate of Chisholm is still being counted, with support currently sitting at 49.6 per cent with 75.5 per cent of the vote counted

Just four of the 22 predicted to support the proposal voted No 

Seat

Sydney, NSW

Grayndler, NSW

Melbourne, Victoria

Canberra, ACT

Adelaide, SA

Brisbane, QLD

Fenner, ACT

Reid, NSW

Clark, Tasmania 

Higgins, Victoria

Macnamara, Victoria 

North Sydney, NSW

Bean, ACT

Greenway, NSW

Griffith, QLD 

Kingsford Smith, NSW

Perth, WA

Wills, Victoria 

Cooper, Victoria

Ryan, QLD

Bennelong, NSW

Chisholm, Victoria 

Predicted Support

 70.4 per cent

64.5 per cent

64 per cent

62 per cent

59 per cent

57 per cent

57 per cent

56 per cent

56 per cent 

56 per cent

56 per cent

 56 per cent

 52 per cent

52 per cent

52 per cent 

52 per cent

52 per cent

52 per cent 

51 per cent

50 per cent

50 per cent

50 per cent 

Federal representative

T. Plibersek (Labor)

A. Albanese (Labor)

A. Bandt (Greens)

A. Payne (Labor)

S. Georganas (Labor)

S. Bates (Greens)

A. Leigh (Labor)

 S. Sitou (Labor)

A. Wilkie (Independent)

M. Ananda-Rajah (Labor)

J. Burns (Labor)

K. Tink (Independent)

D. Smith (Labor)

M. Rowland (Labor)

Chandler-Mather – Green

M. Thistlethwaite (Labor)

P. Gorman (Labor)

P. Khalil (Labor)

G. Kearney (Labor)

E. Watson-Brown (Green)

J. Laxale (Labor)

C. Garland (Labor)