After Flames’ season ends in ‘disappointment,’ what comes next in Calgary?

CALGARY — Blake Coleman needed some time to think.

He’d just been asked about the potential game-winning goal that wasn’t. The goal he scored with five minutes left in the most important game of the season that referees — after review — said he kicked in.

“I don’t know. I don’t think I understand the rule,” he said after the game. “Getting pushed, I just tried to keep my foot on the ice. Felt like I was in a battle. My understanding is you can direct the puck you just can’t kick it, I didn’t feel that I kicked it but can’t go back and change it now….I wish that it would have helped put us over to another game.”

The call, in my opinion, was wrong; an incorrect interpretation of the “distinct kicking motion” rule (37.4). Just look at some of the goals that have been OK this season. No wonder Coleman said, again, he just must not understand the rule.

“If somebody is on the ground and you lift your foot up and kick them in the head, that’s a distinct kicking motion,” Sutter said, explaining his definition of a kick. “If you slide your foot on the ground it’s not a distinct kicking motion.”

The refs may have taken a good goal off the board, but it’s not why the Flames lost the game. They had five more minutes to score another one, and overtime. Instead, Connor McDavid got the game-winner and ended the Flames’ season earlier than most expected.

This is why you don’t go down 3-1 in a series, so single moments or calls don’t end your year. Not to mention, this game, or that goal, are not the reasons the Flames lost in the second round to Edmonton.

“I don’t think we lost the series today,” said Mikael Backlund Thursday night.

The Flames, in Round 2, didn’t look like the Flames we knew in the regular season, or even in the first round against Dallas. The top line wasn’t as productive, the defence looked leaky at times, Chris Tanev was missed greatly — although he played in Games 4 and 5 — and Jacob Markstrom wasn’t as solid as he was all year. They gave up a lot of offence, a lot of rush chances, and multiple leads in games. They played into Edmonton’s hands and lost.

But mostly, Edmonton had the best players in the series. Yes, it was McDavid, but Leon Draisaitl had 17 points in five games on one ankle. Their line with Evander Kane completely outplayed Calgary’s top line. Even their depth was better. Zach Hyman had more goals than Matthew Tkachuk. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins won Game 4 for the Oilers. Mike Smith — .907 save percentage and 3.40 goals-against average — outplayed Jacob Markstrom — .852 save percentage and 5.12 goals-against average.

“(It’s) disappointing because we had a really great season, a really great team. I think we all believed we had a really deep run in us,” Coleman said. “Obviously you can’t put it all on us, you gotta give Edmonton credit. I thought they played really well. Their big guys played some great series, they had some depth, they made plays in key moments in games and we didn’t.

“You look at a lot of the games, they were tight in the third and we just couldn’t come up with that big play to get over the hump.”

With games — and the series on the line — Edmonton’s stars showed up and got the job done. Calgary’s did not.

In a way you can sum up the series on McDavid’s game-winner: Draisaitl won a puck battle, took a hit, and moved the puck to McDavid in the slot who beat Markstrom with a quick wrist shot. While Calgary’s stars failed in their d-zone coverage and left the best player in the world with too much room in the slot in sudden-death overtime.

Edmonton’s stars got the big goal. Calgary’s did not. And now their season is over.

“Right now, it’s just all disappointment, frustration, upset,” said Backlund. “We had a great team, a great group of guys, I’d go to war with this group of guys again. We just didn’t finish the way we wanted.”

Now, the Flames are facing one of the most consequential offseasons in the league, with many major items on their to-do list. Any work on that list has been put on hold with playoffs front of mind, as Craig Conroy said in an interview with The Athletic. That won’t be the case much longer.

“We’ll get back at it right after playoffs are over,” Conroy said. “We have work to do, for sure.”

It would be easy for me to sit here and argue — like our Maple Leafs writers did two weeks ago — that the Flames should run it back. Sure, this loss is disappointing. But the Flames had a much improved regular season, made it further in the playoffs than they have since 2014-15, and have one more year with Darryl Sutter — the Jack Adams finalist who’s been credited by many for the team’s turnaround — under contract.

But it’s not that simple. While the Leafs have their star core locked in for, at least, two more years, the Flames are about to head into the summer where things are not completely in their hands.

Johnny Gaudreau is a pending unrestricted free agent. Matthew Tkachuk is a restricted free agent, with a $9 million qualifying offer, arbitration rights, and one year before UFA status. Andrew Mangiapane is also an RFA with arbitration rights one year from UFA status.

Those three have a few things in common: They are each due for a raise and have more control over their future than the Calgary front office does. Throw Oliver Kylington into the mix too, albeit to a lesser extent as his UFA years begin in 2024.

You would think the first step here is bringing back Gaudreau on a new, long-term contract. He’s the unrestricted free agent, he’s the most skilled player on the team. The problem with that is that Gaudreau is likely going to make a lot of money, and whatever he makes will dictate what the Flames will be able to do the rest of the summer.

After a 115-point season that might land him in the top-five in Hart Trophy voting, and averaging a point per game for his career, Gaudreau could make between $9 million on the low-end, and up to $11 million — although that’s not all that realistic, given only six players are set to make $11 million or more in 2022-23.

Evolving Hockey currently projects Gaudreau’s next deal to be around $10.5 million over seven years.

What that would mean for the Flames is around $9 or $10 million less to sign Tkachuk, Mangiapane, and Kylington and make meaningful upgrades to the roster.

Is that the kind of long-term deal the Flames want to lock in to? Would Gaudreau stay for less than what he could get on the open market?

Figuring out what each side wants and what they can (or cannot) accomplish is going to be priority No. 1.

After that, depending on what happens, they need to figure out what to do with Tkachuk. I’ve written about this before, but, given his contract situation, I see four possible paths forward with him.

The last two scenarios are certainly risky, given the calibre of player we’re talking about. But it’s fair to wonder if the Flames see next season as their final window of contention with Gaudreau (potentially) re-signed and Tkachuk still in team control. They’ll also have Jacob Markstrom, Chris Tanev, Elias Lindholm and other key pieces still signed, and ideally, playing at a high level. The 2023-24 season is when players like Sean Monahan and Milan Lucic come off the books, so it would be a natural time for a retool.

If 2022-23 really is their window, it might be justifiable to allow Tkachuk to play out his contract with the team. However, if Gaudreau leaves, does that window slam shut?

Do you then trade Tkachuk, rather than lose two stars, two years in a row for nothing, and use the cap space and draft capital to retool on the fly?

And what of Andrew Mangiapane? He scored 35 goals this year but was quiet in the playoffs. Five years with a $5 million AAV seems fair to me, but will his camp push for more? Will they demand arbitration, which would walk Mangiapane to UFA in 2023?

I can honestly say that I have more questions than answers about the Flames right now. What I do know is that this team, on the ice, is going to be different next season. For one, the salary cap necessitates that.

The salary cap is only going up $1 million for next season for an $82.5 million ceiling. According to Cap Friendly, the Flames have around $55.58 million committed to 12 players, which leaves the front office with around $26.93 million in cap space to sign Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Mangiapane, Kylington and five to seven more roster spots.

Running back the same roster isn’t just going to be difficult. It’ll effectively be impossible. That means difficult decisions may be on the horizon with some unrestricted and restricted free agents.

Who will feel the squeeze, and potentially leave? And how do you take steps forward as an organization while shedding talent?

One way to try to keep — and pay — their key free agents will be taking a long look at some of the players that may need to be moved out, either due to their aging or underperforming contracts or due to cap necessity.

Finding a solution to Lucic’s contract will be one option. His deal — $5.25 million for one more year — is essentially buyout proof. Do you try to trade him to a team where cap space isn’t an issue?

If you go down that road, the team will surely need to add a sweetener for the team to take on that player on that contract. Lucic also has trade protection, via an eight-team trade list, per Cap Friendly. He’s waived that before for the Seattle expansion draft, but that was different. Would he waive to go to the kind of team — like Arizona — with the kind of space to take on his contract?

I hate to say it, but Mikael Backlund is another consideration. He’s 33 years old, makes $5.35 million for two more seasons and is probably more tradeable now than he’s been for some time after a solid playoffs. That said, Backlund also has a modified no-trade clause (10-team trade list) he’s been on the team longer than any active player, is a leader (captain material?) and if you trade Backlund, you’ll be on the hunt for a new, effective, middle-six centre. Those don’t come cheap.

Maybe you bring back Calle Jarnkrok for under $2 million and Sean Monahan bounces back? I thought Jarnkrok was fine as a defensive centre, while the latter is all you can really hope for with Monahan.

He’s not exactly tradeable after another down year and surgery, and it is my understanding that he can’t be bought out while injured without agreeing to it.

The optimist’s view on Monahan is that he might actually come to camp 100 percent healthy next season, given the hip he had surgery on this year was the other hip. Could Monahan with two new hips be the 2C the Flames need? Maybe. There’s reason to believe the Flames would be willing to give it a shot, especially if they can only, potentially, facilitate one trade to a team that needs to hit the cap floor.

Another area for improvement in the summer, keeping money in mind, will be the Flames’ depth. It showed up in spurts throughout the regular season and first round, but not really in Round 2. They will need to do a better job finding those hidden gems on the open market than they have been in recent years to fill out the roster. What would help in the near term is if some of their recent picks and prospects on entry-level contracts could make the jump to being NHL contributors.

For example, Juuso Valimaki ($1.55M) making the jump. Connor Mackey ($912,500) replacing Nikita Zadorov ($3.75M) on the third pair. Jakob Pelletier ($863,333), Adam Ruzicka (RFA), or Connor Zary ($863,333) being ready for middle-six roles. They’ll all come cheaper than anyone on the open market, which will help keep the cap down.

Outside of the roster, there are also questions about the front office. Will GM Brad Treliving be back? What about the coaching staff? Will there be changes there?

Again, there are many questions, and we have a lot of time to discuss them all in more detail in the coming weeks and months. I’m writing this only a few hours after Game 5 ended. It’s early. But it’s only natural to jump to what’s next, given a lot of these questions when it comes to the roster and direction of the team have lingered since the start of this season, some seven months ago.

It won’t be a simple summer for the Flames’ front office, with a ton to do and plenty of potential roads to walk down. The Flames — if you’re looking for a silver lining — now have some extra time to figure it all out.

(Top photo: Derek Leung / Getty Images)