How good has UConn freshman Paige Bueckers been this season? Let’s look at the numbers

Through her first 14 games for the UConn women, freshman guard Paige Bueckers — the prized No. 1 overall recruit heralded as the next big thing in women’s basketball — has more than lived up to the billing.

She’s led the second-ranked Huskies in scoring. She’s hit dagger 3-pointers against ranked teams. She’s been as steady as a veteran and has continued to progress as the season has moved along.

She passes the eye test. Now let’s look at the numbers.

21.1 points per game

Bueckers has scored a total of 296 points this season, averaging 21.1 a game. That’s 24th highest in the country but second among players on nationally ranked teams (No. 19 West Virginia’s senior guard Kysre Gondrezick is averaging 21.5 points per game).

She’s second nationally in scoring among freshman behind only Iowa’s Caitlin Clark (25.9 per game). The next closest freshman in scoring is San Francisco’s Ioanna Krimili (19.1 points). She’s second in the Big East in points per game behind Villanova sophomore Madison Siegrist (22.8).

If she were to keep this scoring rate up through the rest of the season, her 21.1 points per game would be the third-highest per game scoring average in UConn history behind Maya Moore (22.9, 2010-11) and Kerry Bascom (22.6).

It’s far too early to start looking at this figure, but no Husky has ever averaged 20-plus points per game over the course of their career. Moore’s career average of 19.7 is best in program history.

Had Bueckers been able to play a full season (UConn will only play 21 games due to COVID-19 this regular season instead of the traditional 30), she could have shattered some program records. With seven games left until the conference tournament begins, she’s currently on pace to wrap up her first regular season with 444 points — which would be tied for seventh most by a freshman in program history. A successful Big East tournament and NCAA tournament could see her point totals hit heights few UConn freshman have ever reached.

Only once has she scored below double figures in a game

Through her first 14 games, Bueckers has only posted a game in the single figures once. Against No. 25 Tennessee in January, she finished with nine points on 3-of-14 shooting. Still, she drilled a dagger 3-pointer with 25 seconds left in the game to seal the win. (She also finished with eight rebounds and seven assists, too.)

But outside of the Tennessee game, Bueckers has been steady. Her point totals outside of that contest are as follows: 17, 25, 11, 19, 19, 18, 23, 13, 27, 22, 32, 30 and 31.

She’s shooting 56.6 percent from beyond the arc …

Through 14 games, Bueckers has been more likely to make a 3t than to miss one.

How many players can say that?

According to the numbers, only four other Division I players across the country — Lafayette’s Drew Freeland, Maryland’s Katie Benzan, UC Davis’ Evanne Turner and Oregon State’s Aleah Goodman — are shooting better than 50 percent from 3-point territory, but none as efficiently as Bueckers. Only Benzan (59 3s) has made more 3-pointers than Bueckers, at 35.

She’s the only player in the country averaging more than 20 points per game and shooting 50 percent or better from deep.

No Husky has ever averaged better than 50 percent from 3-point land over the course of the season, with Sue Bird (49.7 percent) coming the closest in 1999-00.

… and 56.8 percent from the field

Her 3-point shooting is impressive, but she’s been equally efficient from the entire floor. No player listed as a guard in the country is shooting a higher percentage from the field than Bueckers, with Florida Gulf Coast’s Kierstan Bell being the closest at 56 percent. She’s one of eight players in the country averaging more than 20 points per game on 50 percent shooting or better. Only teammate Olivia Nelson-Ododa is shooting better from the field in the Big East.

According to CBB Analytics, Bueckers is shooting 87.9 percent within four feet of the rim.

She’s made 116 of the 204 shots she’s taken this season and a season-high 14 against No.1 South Carolina on Monday.

Her 204 shot attempts are good for 132nd most in the country. Not only is she scoring better than most, but she’s done so while taking fewer shots than many of the country’s high-usage players.

She’s posted back-to-back-to-back 30-point games

No UConn player has ever recorded three straight 30-point outings.

Considering the caliber of players the Huskies have had over the years in Moore, Bird, Diana Taurasi, Breanna Stewart, Nykesha Sales, etc., for Bueckers — a freshman — to be the first to do so is nothing short of astounding.

She scored a season-best 32 points against St. John’s last Wednesday, and followed that with 30 points against Marquette on Friday. Her 31-point performance against No. 1 South Carolina on Monday was marked by a game-clinching 3-pointer with 10.8 seconds left in overtime.

Over the past five games, she’s averaged 28.4 points.

Now, let’s get advanced

According to Her Hoop Stats, Bueckers has been good for 6.4 win shares this season — fourth-best in the country. Win shares are an advanced stat that “approximates the total number of wins a player produces for her team” through offensive and defensive play. Her offensive win shares (4.4) are ninth in the country, and her defensive win shares (2.1) are 11th.

Her points per play (1.16) is the 18th highest in the country, per Her Hoop Stats. Her effective field goal percentage (65.4 percent), which accounts for the value of 3-point shots, is 29th in the nation.

Her usage rate, which quantifies the amount of plays in which a player shoots the ball, gets to the free-throw line or commits a turnover, has risen over the course of the season, according to CBB Analytics. For the season, Bueckers has a usage rate of 23.6 percent according to CBB Analytics, and a rate of 23.8 percent over the past 10 games, and 27 percent over the past five. The latter is in the 89th percentile nationwide.

Other figures that tell the tale

She’s played an average 36.4 minutes per game — more than any other Husky, and more than all but two freshman in the entire country (the two above her — UNCW’s Mary McMillan and Washington State’s Charlisse Leger-Walker — are not playing for ranked teams). … She’s one of six players in the country averaging better than 20 points, five rebounds and five assists, and the only for a ranked team … She leads the conference in assists with 5.6 per game (no freshman in the Geno Auriemma era has led the conference in that category for a full season) … Her 36 steals are tied for 57th in the country, and second in the Big East.

Shawn McFarland can be reached at smcfarland@courant.com.