The third Democrat on the ticket in Georgia: Political future for Stacey Abrams hinges on runoff results

ATLANTA — Stacey Abrams isn’t running for either Georgia Senate seat being decided Tuesday, but she might have more riding on the outcome than anyone other than the candidates themselves.

The failed 2018 Democratic gubernatorial candidate is the top contender to take on the Republican nominee for the governor’s mansion in 2022 after helping President-elect Joe Biden turn Georgia blue in 2020, the first time a Democrat has claimed the state’s electoral votes since 1992.

And Abrams’s Fair Fight voting rights advocacy group has already been credited for Georgia’s record turnout before Tuesday’s high-stakes Senate runoffs, along with an estimated $830 million pumped into the state. The two races between incumbent Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler and their Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, respectively, will determine which party controls the chamber this Congress.

“Nobody, nobody in America has done more for the right to vote than Stacey,” Biden said Monday afternoon during an Election Day eve drive-in rally in Atlanta for Ossoff and Warnock.

The two-term vice president added, “Stacey, you’re changing Georgia, you’ve changed America, and I want to personally thank you again.”

The early vote for the Jan. 5 runoffs, comprising roughly 3 million Georgians, has already surpassed the participation levels of previous post-election season contests, including 115,000 Georgians who didn’t cast a ballot during the Nov. 3 round of voting.

Abrams’s influence in Georgia, where Democratic wins hinge on black Democrats heading to the polls in Atlanta and the state’s growing suburbs, cannot be overstated. Neither can her efforts driving enthusiasm before the runoffs, because the number of Democrats who have returned to have their say has dropped off in past cycles. In fact, President Trump targeted the former Georgia House minority leader during his Monday night rally in Dalton.

“What’s with this Stacey Abrams?” Trump asked the crowd. “Your governor and your secretary of state, they’re petrified of Stacey Abrams. What’s that all about?”

While Abrams endorsing Warnock was important to the preacher, who could become Georgia’s first black senator, it was more significant to filmmaker Ossoff, a 33-year-old repeat candidate who’s faced criticism that he’s benefited from white male privilege throughout his career.

“Both of my parents were the first in their families to graduate college. My mother immigrated to this country alone as a young woman when she was 23 years old. And I’m grateful that their success allowed me, for example, to graduate college without debt,” he told CNN Sunday, leaning into his Jewish heritage as well.

Ossoff also refers to Abrams as a mentor in his stump speech, having approached her for advice on how to appeal to minority voters before his unsuccessful 2017 special election bid for the House seat held by former Trump administration Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price.

In comparison, Abrams forged a friendship with Warnock 15 years ago when he joined Martin Luther King, Jr.’s Ebenezer Baptist Church as its senior pastor. The pair then worked more closely together from 2014 when Abrams launched The New Georgia Project, Fair Fight’s predecessor.

But their association threatened to trip Warnock up during the runoff. For one, he was forced to defend Abrams’s refusal to concede to sitting Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Abrams, who was the country’s first black female gubernatorial pick, accused Kemp of voter suppression when he ran to be Georgia’s chief executive while continuing on as secretary of state.

“Listen, suppression is something that happens all across our country. It’s happened here in the state of Georgia,” Warnock said during his December debate against Loeffler.

Warnock’s been grilled, too, over allegations the New Georgia Project received a coronavirus stimulus loan and sent ballots to non-Georgia voters, despite cutting ties with the organization in January.

During the closing days of the campaigns, rank-and-file Georgia Democrats have expressed confidence that they’ll flip both Senate seats. It’s a change in tone from before Nov. 3 when, at least regarding the presidential race, many in the party were overly cautious about Biden’s prospects after Trump’s surprise victory in 2016.

Abrams, though, is trying to balance optimism with managing expectations. Tempering expectations is especially critical to her future ambitions after her leadership in Georgia rehabilitated her image, which she damaged over the summer by publicly lobbying to become Biden’s running mate.

“I’m excited about the fact that Georgia is a competitive state, that this is a nail-biter. And my hope is that Democrats will show up and demonstrate that November is the beginning of a pattern,” she told NBC Sunday. “But if it’s not, then it’s going to further demonstrate that we are a site, a force to be reckoned with, and we’ll continue to fight, not only for national elections and statewide elections, but fight to continue to improve lives at the state and local level.”