Relegation zone: What Aston Villa, Watford and Bournemouth need to do

Aston Villa: Pts 34, goal difference -26

Sunday’s fixture West Ham (a) What they need To match Watford’s result, including no loss of a narrow goal difference advantage, and take a point if Bournemouth win

For a long time it looked as if Villa would survive only with help from others. But after taking seven points from the past nine available, their fate is in their own hands.

No manager used the suspension of the Premier League better than Dean Smith. Throughout the shutdown he held video conferences and then training sessions with his players, concentrating on improving the league’s leakiest defence. The fruit of that work has been obvious, laying the foundation for improved results. They still do not have a sharp striker but have shown they do not necessarily need to score many to win.

Related: Dean Smith urges Aston Villa to win final game and secure great escape

The winger Mahmoud Trezeguet has come to the fore when it mattered, scoring three goals in his past three matches. Along with the midfielder Douglas Luiz, Trezeguet has emerged as the most precious of the batch of players Villa had to sign after promotion last year, excluding Tom Heaton and Wesley, who were performing well before sustaining season-ending injuries on New Year’s Day. Those injuries, and the one sustained by John McGinn two weeks previously, made Villa’s campaign a lot harder.

© Provided by The Guardian Aston Villa’s Douglas Luiz holds off Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha as he makes a pass. Photograph: Catherine Ivill/Reuters

Smith has done well to form a coherent team despite those problems and the fact that the one player who has generally been below par since the restart is the club’s best, Jack Grealish, who is likely to move no matter what.

Smith said last week that thanks to the club’s billionaire owners relegation would not jeopardise Villa’s future. He added that if they stayed up they would have the financial muscle to become a bigger force next season. PD

Watford: Pts 34, goal difference -27

Sunday’s fixture Arsenal (a) What they need A better result than Villa or, if they both win, to win by two goals more and if they both lose to lose by a margin smaller by two. A point would guarantee they finish above Bournemouth

It seems ironic the first season since promotion in 2015 that did not start with Watford among the favourites for relegation looks likely to end with them being relegated. The belief that for the first time the club could relax is precisely what seems to have led to this position. Weaknesses in the squad, apparent last season, were not adequately addressed, most significantly in defence, which was augmented only by Craig Dawson, who along with the goalkeeper Ben Foster went through a similar period of drift and decline at West Brom.

Related: Ben Foster admits Watford confidence is ‘crazy low’ after slipping into drop zone

After the 4-0 defeat by Manchester City on Tuesday Foster said confidence was “crazy low” and it does seem a lack of spirit rather than inherent quality has dragged them back into the bottom three. A relegation-dodging victory at Arsenal, who might be distracted by the prospect of the FA Cup final next week, remains possible but whatever the outcome significant changes are surely inevitable. There will be another new manager, who will hopefully survive a full season at least – it is surely time for the merry-go-round to stop spinning – but they may also get rid of the dozen or so players who have either proved not very good or consider themselves (rightly, in one or two cases) too good for the club.

A significant rejuvenation of the Premier League’s second-oldest squad is required. They have several young players on loan who could help – including the left-back Pervis Estupiñán, who has had an outstanding campaign at Osasuna, and Luis Suárez, who has scored 19 league goals for Real Zaragoza (though some of these might also consider themselves too good, particularly for a club in the Championship). Hope comes from the promise of Ismaïla Sarr, the spirit and quality of Will Hughes, a relatively healthy financial position and owners who in Italy, Spain and England have previously made few serious missteps. SB

Bournemouth: Pts 31, goal difference -27

Sunday’s fixture Everton (a) What they need A win and Watford and Villa to lose

Climbing out of the relegation zone seems an extremely tall order for Bournemouth given the permutations but Eddie Howe says his players can be inspired by the crazy Championship climax on Wednesday, when Barnsley survived despite spending the previous 310 days in the bottom three. It is not quite the same story at Bournemouth, who were as high as seventh in November but have struggled to keep their heads above water since, winning one of their past 12 matches and keeping the same number of clean sheets.

Related: Liverpool’s trophy and Championship madness – Football Weekly Extra

Howe took his sons to play crazy golf instead of watching Watford’s defeat by Manchester City on Tuesday and says his coaching staff will not detail scores from elsewhere on Sunday because they will be worthless unless his side win.

Bournemouth will welcome back Adam Smith after concussion but Nathan Aké, the subject of interest from Manchester City among others, is touch-and-go with a groin injury. Aké will not be the only one to attract bids whether Bournemouth escape or not, with Joshua King and David Brooks not short of admirers. If Aké is not fit Lloyd Kelly, who has impressed, will deputise.

In seasons gone by Bournemouth have counteracted any vulnerability in defence with a free-scoring frontline. But Callum Wilson has not scored since the restart and despite getting into promising positions in the defeat by Southampton last time out they flattered to deceive in attack. Brooks has flitted in and out of games since returning from a prolonged absence with ankle injuries. As for Howe, the manager has conceded he does not know whether he will be in charge next season but his commitment cannot be questioned. BF

Video: Can you get top marks in our tough Aston Villa picture guessing game? (Birmingham Mail)

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