UFC on ESPN 14: Fabricio Werdum vs. Alexander Gustafsson odds, picks and best bets

Joe Williams, Sportsbook Wire Published 3:30 a.m. MT July 25, 2020

Fabricio Werdum and Alexander Gustafsson square off in a heavyweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 14 Saturday at the UFC’s Fight Island facility on Yas Island, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET.

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Werdum (23-9-1) steps into the octagon with a 38-pound advantage, and will likely be looking to take Gustafsson (18-6) to the mat as soon as possible. Werdum doesn’t hold many advantages outside of his weight, but does have a 1.13 to 0.41 submission average over his counterpart. Werdum is coming off a split-decision loss to Aleksei Oleinik at UFC 249, and is on a two-bout skid. Werdum has never lost three consecutive fights in his professional career. In 33 pro fights, he has 11 submission wins and four of his previous six outings have gone the distance.

Gustafsson is also coming off a loss, tapping out against Anthony Smith June 1, 2019. Gustafsson is also 0-2 in his past two outings, and 3-5 in the previous eight bouts. Like Werdum, Gustafsson has never lost three fights in a row at any point of his professional career, so something’s gotta give. Each of Gustafsson’s past three fights have finished inside the distance. The big Swede hasn’t won by submission since he topped James Te Huna at UFC 127 back on Feb. 26, 2011, so you can obviously forget about betting that prop.

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:55 a.m. ET.

Gustafsson (-358) enters as a huge favorite. The 33-year-old will be looking to snap a two-bout losing skid, and should be able to do it against the 42-year-old Werdum (+275), who is in the twilight of his career. However, Gustafsson is just too expensive, so you’ll have to get a bit creative. GUSTAFSSON BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION ( +100) is even money, and the far more attractive play on the 5-way line. As long as he doesn’t win on points, or fall to the Brazilian veteran, you’re in good shape.

As far as the length of the fight, Werdum tends to go long into the night, while Gustafsson looks to put the lights out early. Betting NO ( -167): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a sound play, as is taking UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS ( -134), if you want to save a little bit of juice. Another avenue you might want to pursue, if you’re uncertain of the winner, is betting the KO/TKO/DQ ( -121) as the method of finish, and it doesn’t matter who comes out with their arm raised.

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