Boris Johnson’s government is badly behind the curve

The pandemic has saved its cruellest blow yet for the moment when newly-approved vaccines gave hope that the end was finally in sight. Millions of Britons have been phoning friends and family to cancel holiday visits after Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed new restrictions in England, and other UK nations tightened their own. Faced with a highly infectious new virus strain, in effect “cancelling Christmas” for large parts of the country appears sadly unavoidable. But the U-turn, just days after Mr Johnson assured a planned easing of restrictions would go ahead, will make many feel the government is yet again behind the curve.

The prime minister was late in imposing the first lockdown in March, a delay that a senior epidemiologist has suggested cost tens of thousands of lives. He rebuffed experts’ calls in September for a short, circuit-breaker lockdown that might have arrested Covid-19’s spread. An alternative tiered, regional approach was late and messy in its implementation.

The result was a longer national shutdown in November. But it is now clear that, thanks to the new strain, cases began rising again in south-east England even before that lockdown was lifted. As cases accelerated and scientists raised alarms, Mr Johnson last week said it would be “inhumane” to scrap a five-day Christmas lifting of controls — mocking Labour leader Keir Starmer for proposing otherwise. His last-minute reversal sent thousands to train stations trying to leave the south-east before restrictions kicked in, increasing infection risks. It will also escalate the economic damage.

Hospitality businesses had less than 48 hours’ notice before the capital and some neighbouring regions were moved into the then-highest tier 3 restrictions last week. Many will lose both vital holiday revenues and have to write off unused fresh goods. Just four days later, “non-essential” retailers, personal care businesses, gyms and cinemas received only hours’ notice before London and several other regions shifted into the newly-created tier 4. The weeks around Christmas provide the bulk of many retailers’ annual profits; stores hoped this year to recoup lost business from the earlier lockdown.

As health secretary Matt Hancock conceded on Sunday, moreover, the new measures may have to remain for months. While scientists say there is no evidence the new virus variant causes higher deaths or is more resistant to vaccines, it appears to increase the R value — the average number of people to whom an infected individual passes it on — by 0.4. That makes the pandemic even harder to control. Signs of higher transmission among the young raise questions over whether schools can reopen as planned in January.

The government is being buffeted by the winds of an unpredictable global pandemic. But political leadership is about taking difficult decisions even before others realise they are necessary, and carrying along allies, opponents, and the nation. It is often, too, about pragmatism and compromise.

To such strains on the nation, adding the shock of a no-deal Brexit would be folly. Just 11 days from the deadline, the government is still struggling to agree a new EU trade deal. Such a scenario was foreseeable in the summer when Mr Johnson decided not to seek an extension to the transition period. He will blame EU intransigence should the talks fail. But millions are locked down and separated from loved ones, many businesses closed, and intensive care units full. If the government now fails to reach an EU deal it once said would be easy, much of the country — including many Brexit voters — will be at a loss to understand why.