Why is Israel planning a Rafah offensive and what would it mean?

Early Monday, Israel launched a raid in the city of Rafah in the besieged Gaza Strip. During the operation, Israel said it freed two Israeli-Argentinian hostages kidnapped from Israel in the Hamas-led October 7 resistance. At least 67 Palestinian civilians were killed in the raid, according to Gaza health authorities.

On social media, Argentine President Javier Milei thanked Israel for the rescue of the two hostages, who hold dual nationality.

In an interview with US television network ABC News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he intended to “get the remaining terrorist battalions in Rafah, which is the last bastion,” indicating that a subsequent ground invasion was imminent. Israeli plans for a ground invasion have drawn international criticism, with aid agencies and key allies calling for restraint.

What would a ground operation mean for Rafah’s population?

Israel has steadily expanded ground operations in Gaza toward the south, leaving Rafah as one of the last refuges for over half of the enclave’s 2.3 million residents fleeing the violence. The city’s population, which stood at circa 250,000 before the war, has ballooned to about 1.5 million, according to several UN agencies. Many refugees live in makeshift camps and UN shelters. They face dire living conditions and water and food shortages.

Rafah is located along the Egyptian border and is adjacent to the only remaining border crossing into Gaza that is still partially accessible. Egypt has recently bolstered its border security over concerns that an Israeli operation could cause a mass migration of Gazans into its territory.

Are there safe zones in the north?

Details of such a plan have so far not been made public. It remains unclear where such safe zones might be located, how safe passage would be guaranteed and whether these areas would be suitable to host hundreds of thousands of refugees.

The United Nations Satellite Centre UNOSAT estimates that 30% of all Gaza structures have been damaged since Israel launched its war on Hamas, with the “most significant increase in damage” in the north central governorate of Gaza and southern Khan Younis governorate.

Another study conducted by Corey Scher of City University of New York and Jamon Van Den Hoek of Oregon State University estimates that over half of Gaza’s buildings have been destroyed.

What has the US said about the planned Rafah offensive?

US President Joe Biden told Netanyahu “a military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible and executable plan for ensuring the safety of and support for the more than one million people sheltering there.”

On Monday, Biden again expressed grave concern over the humanitarian consequences of a Rafah incursion, saying “many people there have been displaced — displaced multiple times, fleeing the violence to the north, and now they’re packed into Rafah — exposed and vulnerable.”

While the US has backed Israel in its campaign to root out Hamas, Biden has issued repeated calls for restraint in past weeks. In December, he warned that Israel risked losing support “by indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza. 

Could the Rafah offensive derail ceasefire talks?  

On the weekend, a senior Hamas figure warned that an Israeli ground offensive on Rafah would “blow up” ongoing hostage negotiations.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Israel’s spy chief David Barnea will reportedly arrive in Cairo to discuss a Gaza hostage and truce proposal with his Egyptian and US counterparts as well as Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. Qatar has played a key role in brokering previous Gaza ceasefires.  

Of the hostages abducted from Israel and taken to Gaza in the October 7 attack, a total of 112 have now been freed. Some 130 are still unaccounted for. Of these, about 30 are thought to be dead, according to Israeli officials.