October 4, 2024

NFL Divisional Playoffs best special prop bets: Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen props and odds

Jordan Love #JordanLove

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After an exciting wild-card round, the NFL serves up an intriguing four-game divisional-round ledger this weekend, and NJ.com has three unique and appealing bets to consider.

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NFL Divisional Playoff props: How to bet on Jordan Love/Baker Mayfield propJordan Love/Baker Mayfield player prop odds: Love and Mayfield to combine for 500+ passing yards (-110 or better)

Two of the hottest quarterbacks left standing reside in the NFC, with Love and Mayfield enjoying outstanding wild-card performances after surprisingly strong finishes to their regular seasons.

Both players see their teams as notable underdogs this week, which is unsurprising given their daunting road matchups against the 49ers and Lions.

If the game script plays out as oddsmakers imply, we should see plenty of passing from both players. That may hold true under any circumstance, as neither Green Bay nor Tampa Bay will be able to rest easy against San Francisco and Detroit, even if they get a lead on the favored hosts.

As such, Love and Mayfield, who combined for 609 yards in their team’s respective wild-card wins, should surpass the 500-yard threshold, particularly with Mayfield’s matchup against a Lions’ secondary that, including last week’s victory, allows 253.4 passing yards per game.

NFL Divisional Playoff props: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Brock Purdy to combine for 6+ passing TDs (-105 or better)

The three elite quarterbacks are capable of averaging two touchdown tosses per game, a fact that becomes more probable given what’s at stake this weekend.

The 49ers will be far from complacent against a Packers team that, with near-perfect offense for a large chunk of the game, eviscerated the Cowboys in the wild-card round. While Christian McCaffrey will naturally see plenty of work on the ground and in the red zone, Brock Purdy will undoubtedly have enough chances to take to the air and target his well-rested group of elite pass catchers against a Packers secondary that could again be missing Jaire Alexander.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs-Bills rivalry already has some legendary, high-scoring postseason history. Neither team will feel safe with a lead until the final whistle, so passing should be abundant on either side.

Both teams’ secondaries can be excellent, but each can also be susceptible to giving up some production through the air. Purdy, Allen, and Mahomes had 28 tallies of 2+ passing TDs during the regular season.

And each of the two games involving these quarterbacks has solid totals (Packers-49ers is at 50.5, Chiefs-Bills at 45.5 as of Thursday. afternoon), upping the probability of aerial touchdowns.

Divisional Round player props: Each team to score 1+ FG in all four divisional-round games (+330 or better)

This is a very appealing price on a prop that should have a solid chance of cashing. All eight teams’ kickers have had varying degrees of success during the regular season, but each is capable of knocking at least one through the uprights.

The Texans’ Ka’imi Fairbairn and Ravens’ Justin Tucker are two of the best in the business. During the regular season, they went a combined 59-for-65 on field-goal tries, with an off year (32-for-37) for the ordinarily near-perfect Tucker.

The Packers’ Anders Carlson is the on-paper weak link here – he knocked home just 27 of 33 field-goal tries during the season – but Green Bay is likely to see some drives stall against a San Francisco defense that surrendered just a 55.6% red-zone TD scoring rate in the regular season.

Like Carlson, the Niners’ Jake Moody is also a rookie, so there could be some jitters. However, he should get enough opportunities to make up for any misses against a Packers defense ranked in the bottom 10 with 2.2 field-goal attempts per game allowed.

Michael Badgley, Tyler Bass, Harrison Butker, and Chase McLaughlin have above-average-to-stellar accuracy. In fact, Butker and McLaughlin were a combined 62 of 66 on field-goal tries this season, including 12 of 13 on attempts of 50+ yards.

Field-goal attempts should be relatively abundant this weekend, with defenses typically superior and usually tighter in the red zone during the playoffs.

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