William Nylander, Maple Leafs agree to 8-year, $92 million contract extension

William Nylander isn’t going anywhere.

Any lingering uncertainty about the future of the 27-year-old disappeared Monday when he and the Leafs agreed to an eight-year contract with a cap hit of $11.5 million.

The deal, which starts next season, will keep Nylander under contract until 2032 and buy up his age 28-35 seasons. It will also soon place him among the highest-paid players in the league, tied with Erik Karlsson for fifth, just in front of good buddy and longtime contract comparable, David Pastrnak.

It’s a substantial raise for Nylander, long underpaid oddly enough after the longest contract dispute in the modern era back in 2018, one that saw Nylander looking for and ultimately getting the same kind of payday as Pastrnak (slightly more in fact).

A six-year deal that many thought to be an overpay by then-GM Kyle Dubas turned out to be just the opposite.

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Nylander is currently tied for fifth in league scoring and has produced points in 33 of 37 games this season. His current cap hit of $6.9 million cap hit, meanwhile, ranks 98th in the NHL.

This contract won’t carry similar bargain potential. It puts Nylander into the same pay bracket as forwards like Pastrnak ($11.25 million cap hit) and Artemi Panarin ($11.6 million).

Nylander launched himself into their airspace with his play this season. His production is essentially equal to Pastrnak and Panarin so far — though that $11.5 million cap hit will end up representing a slightly lower chunk of the cap (about 13.1 percent) than either player at the time of their respective deals.

“I feel like that’s been my goal my entire life to be a top player in the league. That’s how I feel I’m playing,” Nylander told The Athletic over the weekend. “That’s where I want to be at.”

The contract carries a big annual number, certainly, and it will be essential that Nylander continue to perform as he has (or close to this) well into the future, as one of the best players in the league.

Nylander has made his case for this deal and not just because of his performance this season or even last season. He’s increasingly outplayed his fellow stars in Toronto, particularly in the playoffs, while earning a lot less.

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Mitch Marner has been earning $10.9 million cap dollars for five seasons now and is sure to command a raise on that number next summer at the earliest when he becomes eligible to sign an extension. He’s been a more impactful all-around player than Nylander and boasts three seasons of 90-plus points to none, so far, for Nylander.

Nylander has been the better playoff performer though, outplaying Marner for most of last season and for the entirety of this season. He’s also scored more goals and is already more than halfway to his second consecutive 40-goal season.

He’s also made strides as a defender, even becoming a regular on the Leaf penalty kill for the first time this season.

Nylander has amassed 143 goals (13th among all NHLers) and 322 points (19th) since the start of the 2019-20 season (the first one after the season was interrupted by the contract dispute). Those numbers outpace John Tavares, making $11 million on the cap since 2018, by a fair bit (120 and 300).

Over the last four postseasons, Nylander has scored more goals (14) than even Auston Matthews (12), the Leafs highest-paid player, at $11.6 million on the cap. Matthews will begin a league-topping four-year extension, with a cap hit of $13.25 million, next season.

Nylander’s next deal will still represent a lesser chunk of the cap (projected to be $87.7 million) when it begins next season than those deals did initially.

Cap hit percentage at signing date

And of course, as the cap rises over the eight years of the deal, Nylander’s percentage of the cap will fall.

Tavares’ deal will expire after year one of Nylander’s new contract. After that, Nylander will slide, almost seamlessly, into Tavares’ cap number. The Leafs will still have to accommodate Matthews’ raise and one for Marner, potentially, beginning in 2025.

And yet, the difference in what the Leafs will (or could) be allocating their three highest-paid stars will be almost identical with the salary cap rising.

Marner, Tavares, and Matthews are pulling in about $33.5 million cap dollars collectively this season, or about 40 percent of the cap.

A future big three of Matthews (with his raise), Nylander (with his raise), and Marner (making around $12 million on his raise in this projection) would earn an almost identical 40 percent of a $92 million cap two seasons from now, when Marner’s next deal would kick in alongside those for Matthews and Nylander.

It’s next season that gets a little hairy when the Leafs could have four of the dozen or so highest-paid players in the league, including three, potentially, in the top 10.

That will mean less room for John Klingberg-like mistakes and a higher need for Michael Bunting-like bargains.

The Leafs still have yet to prove they can win when it matters with such a top-heavy roster construction.

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Unlike Matthews’ extension, which went for four years, the Leafs and their GM Brad Treliving got Nylander on board for the maximum term of eight years. He’s now under contract longer than anyone on the team, just outpacing Morgan Rielly (2030).

Only Treliving and Nylander’s agent Lewis Gross can know whether the Leafs could have scored a more team-friendly deal in the summer, before Nylander started producing at such a terrific pace.

It’s been a misfire of the organization dating back to Lou Lamoriello and Dubas, not pouncing on extensions before the players had a chance to shine even brighter.

The Leafs had no choice but to pay up to keep Nylander. Let him walk and Treliving would have been boxed into a corner in negotiations on Marner’s next deal. Marner’s agent Darren Ferris would have had leverage knowing the Leafs had already lost Nylander.

Now, the Leafs’ long-term future, at the very least, will include Matthews, Nylander and Rielly at its inner core. The Leafs have some flexibility now with Marner too. They can secure his place in that core as soon as July 1, or, with Nylander locked up, pivot down the line if things go askew.

Most importantly for the Leafs, Nylander’s arrow is still pointing upward. He continues to get better, growing his all-around game again this season. He sits among the league’s top 25 forwards in averaging a career-best of just over 20 minutes per game this season. He might not be a 120-point player again, if he gets there this year, but 40-ish goals and around 100 points annually seems about right for the foreseeable future.

Production like that is worth paying for.

(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)