Ted Cruz may have a Donald Trump problem. And it’s not the one you think | Opinion

Donald Trump recently issued a warning to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley about Democrats’ plans to target the two Republicans in 2024.

“Josh and Ted must be very careful, stranger things have happened!” he wrote.

Coming from anyone else, it might read as a friendly heads-up. But this is Trump, and many saw a threat to pull support from Cruz and Hawley if they don’t back his presidential bid. Hawley quickly clarified that he’s with Trump, but Cruz has been silent.

Cruz probably faces a tough re-election race. The odds remain in his favor, but the last thing he needs is trouble on his right. Trump is trying to consolidate support and avoid any upsets to his commanding lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

The entire episode, though, is a window into the next few years if Trump is the nominee. His followers exude a certain glee at going after other Republicans — the ones they call “the establishment” even as Trump extends his control over the party.

Some seem to relish the chance to defeat the heretics in the GOP more than beating back the progressive agenda. On this, they take their cues from their leader, who during his presidency hounded Republicans who dared to cross him.

Look at the Trumpian reaction to two of the most crucial forces in advancing a conservative agenda in recent decades. Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the longtime Republican leader, was the main reason Trump got to make three legacy-setting Supreme Court nominations. McConnell is far from perfect on other issues, especially federal spending, and his age is an issue. But he has worked for decades to move federal courts to the right.

He’s had help from the Federalist Society, a group that has nurtured conservative lawyers and provided a steady pipeline of top judicial nominees. But for some Trump supporters, it’s no longer enough because Federalist Society types tend to honor the guardrails of the Constitution. Can’t have that in a second Trump term.

These are just two examples. For Trump himself, it’s much more visceral. If you like him (or pretend to), he’ll say nice things about you, even if you’re a dictator starving your own people. If you don’t, well, Ronald Reagan himself couldn’t pass that test, because it isn’t about any principle other than Trump worship.

Donald Trump and Ted Cruz debating in 2016 in Florida. (Craig Rubadoux/Florida Today via USA TODAY NETWORK)

Which brings us back to Cruz. He has said he won’t endorse in the presidential primary, in part because of the potential effect on his own campaign. How long will Trump accept that?

Cruz has only token primary opposition, but Democrats want to target him next November. They’re confident they have the right candidate in Dallas Rep. Colin Allred, though he’ll have to get through his own primary first. Democrats nationwide will gladly send tens of millions of dollars to any Democrat in hopes of beating Cruz.

Trump presents a complication. If he feels shafted, he could push enough Republicans to sit out the Senate race to complicate Cruz’s bid. But getting too close to Trump could alienate swing voters that Cruz will need. Having Trump at the top of the ballot will juice turnout among Democrats, as Cruz well knows — backlash to Trump was why Cruz had to sweat his 2018 race.

This would not be the first time Trump has put Cruz in an awkward spot. In 2016, they battled for months for the GOP nomination. Once Trump won it, Cruz was hesitant to back him, even famously telling the party’s national convention audience to “vote your conscience.”

That almost finished Cruz in the party, but he swallowed his pride and gave Trump full-throated support. It can’t have been fun, backing the guy who called Cruz’s wife ugly and accused his father of participating in the John F. Kennedy assassination. It even prompted a famous meme of Cruz, calling potential voters with a “what am I doing” look on his face.

Odds are, it won’t be that rough this time. But if Trump comes after Cruz, it’s a sign of what Republicans are going to get for the next four years if their man is elected: petty threats out of nowhere, a willingness to sink important allies for not sufficiently bending the knee, and a constant need to calibrate to Trump’s ego.

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