First Devin Nunes, now Kevin McCarthy. Why do Valley congressmen keep quitting? | Opinion

Must’ve been something we said.

Are we the problem, Kev and Dev? Or is the problem soulless, power-hungry politicians like yourselves?

Special elections for a vacant House seat are somewhat rare in California. Only 23 have been held since 1980 — keep in mind there were between 43 to 53 races every two years during that span — including nine that occurred after the person in office died.

So aren’t we the lucky ones?

Following Kevin McCarthy’s announcement that he will “retire” from Congress at year’s end, it means voters in his district won’t have anyone representing them when the House reconvenes in January. And likely won’t for six months.

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No one to legislate or cast votes on their behalf. No office where people can go for help with passports and Social Security, assistance in locating a federal loan or grant or arrange a Capitol visit. Nothing.

But for McCarthy constituents living in Clovis, parts of Fresno (mainly neighborhoods around Fresno State and east of the airport), southern Visalia, northern Tulare and all the unincorporated areas in between those squiggly boundary lines, this is becoming old hat.

That’s because we — yes, I’m part of the fortunate group — also went six months without representation on Capitol Hill in early 2022 when Devin Nunes decided he’d rather openly work for Donald Trump. Once he could no longer effectively do so in semi-secret.

Two straight congressmen who elected to bail out rather than serve the final year of their respective terms.

Two straight quitters.

In some ways, McCarthy and Nunes are analogous situations. In some ways, they aren’t. Regardless, the net effect upon hundreds of San Joaquin Valley residents is the same. For extended periods of time we are left without a voice. Some of us twice in two years.

It shows McCarthy and Nunes don’t care much about the voters in their districts. Not as much as they care about the accumulation of power and influence that comes with being a congressional leader.

What other conclusion can possibly be drawn?

Just as soon as their power and influence dissipated, so too did their commitment to office.

Reasons for leaving

McCarthy, of course, lost his tenuous-but-prized speakership. While Nunes got redistricted and was no longer on speed dial to the White House.

After so many years successfully climbing the Republican totem pole in Washington, D.C., even 12 months as a low man was too much to bear.

Tells us all we need to know about their motivation, while also providing fuel to the general cynicism that pervades national politics and politicians.

When Nunes bailed to head up Trump’s media venture, Connie Conway served out the final six months of his term following a special election in early June.

This time, because there’s no redistricting to account for, the process shouldn’t be as confusing for voters. Simply because the individual who wins the special election will also be, in all likelihood, the same person elected to a full term in November.

COMPARING TWO DISTRICTSMap: NATHANIEL LEVINE | Source: California Citizens Redistricting Commission

It’s up to California Gov. Gavin Newsom to establish that timeline. Which he will assuredly do once McCarthy officially resigns. McCarthy can’t wait too long since no special election is required — and the choice becomes Newsom’s — if it happens in 2024.

McCarthy’s announcement set off a flurry of speculation over potential successors. The only given is that it will be a Republican — registered GOP voters outnumber Democrats by nearly 20% in CD 20 — and more than likely one from Kern County.

Kern-heavy district

Why Kern County? Because it accounts for 51.1% of the district’s voters, according to the California Secretary of State’s latest figures. Fresno County voters comprise 27.7% of the electorate, followed by Tulare County’s 14.5% and Kings County’s 6.7%.

Those numbers explain why Assemblyman Vince Fong became the frontrunner once state Senator Shannon Grove, the GOP leader in the upper house, announced Sunday she wouldn’t seek election to Congress. (Fong initially said he wasn’t running, either, then changed his mind over the weekend.) The data also give ample pause to Fresno-area Republicans, even the ambitious ones such as Fresno County Supervisor Nathan Magsig.

Fresno-area Republicans, in fact, got a pretty raw deal in the last round of redistricting. In the region’s two red congressional districts they’re outnumbered by their Kern County counterparts in CD 20 and by Stanislaus County in CD 5, currently Congressman Tom McClintock’s turf.

Meanwhile, the only Fresno-centric congressional district (CD 21, where Democrats hold a 16.6% registration edge) is so blue that Republicans don’t have much chance there, either.

In fact, based on that district’s boundaries and voter data, it’s arguable Congressman Jim Costa would face equally as stiff competition from a liberal Democrat as any local Republican in a re-election campaign. The sole exception would be Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer, if he gets a taste for national politics.

Speaking of big names, it’s possible Nunes returns. He certainly has the name recognition and campaign war chest to win any local race. However, that seems unlikely. Even if Trump returns to the Oval Office, Nunes is probably of more use to his master in his current capacity than as a House back-bencher.

Of course, that’s mostly speculation. The only thing certain is the last two Republican congressmen for Fresno, Clovis and a wide swath of the Valley would rather quit than serve. Aren’t we the lucky ones?