NFL Week 15 picks: Bills stun Cowboys to stay in AFC playoff race, Ravens roll over Jaguars

I almost didn’t have time to write my picks this week and that’s because I was way too busy writing an email to Roger Goodell. 

As we all know, the NFL needs to vacate the Bills’ win over the Chiefs from Sunday because the refs absolutely blew the call at the end of the game. They called offsides on a guy who was offsides! WHY WOULD THEY DO THAT? THE NFL NEEDS TO INVESTIGATE RIGHT NOW. We can’t have the officials correctly throwing penalty flags on guys who deserve it, that might actually make the refs look competent and I won’t stand for it. I have written a lengthy email to Goodell to let him know that we need refs who are less competent than what we saw Sunday. We want refs who aren’t competent, right? Or do we actually want competent refs? Guys, I’ll be honest, I can’t even keep track anymore.  

Speaking of things that may or may not be competent, let’s get to the Week 15 picks. 

Actually, before we get to the picks, here’s a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. If you like clicking on things then I highly suggest you also click here so you can sign up for CBSSports.com’s NFL newsletter, which I’m in charge of. It makes a great holiday gift and that’s mostly because it doesn’t cost you anything and because it gets delivered to your inbox five days per week, it truly is the gift that keeps on giving. 

Alright, let’s actually get to the picks. 

NFL Week 15 picksPittsburgh (7-6) at Indianapolis (7-6)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

The date of this game is NOT a typo, Saturday football is back! From now until the end of the season, we’ll be getting at least one Saturday game per week and that starts this week with a Saturday tripleheader on NFL Network. On a normal Saturday during the NFL season, I generally spend my entire day telling my 3-year-old not to throw her Bluey figures in the toilet, but I guess her mom is going to have to be the voice of reason this week, because I have football to watch. 

This isn’t a playoff game, but it’s going to kind of feel like a playoff game and that’s because the loser won’t have much hope of making the postseason. That being said, it’s probably for the best that this isn’t a playoff game, because if that were the case, I’d have to pick both teams to lose. These two teams have combined for exactly one playoff win over the past five years and that came from the Colts in 2018. 

The Steelers are coming into this game on possibly the most embarrassing losing streak in NFL history. With losses to the Cardinals and Patriots over the past two weeks, Pittsburgh became the first team ever to be above .500 AND lose consecutive games to teams that were both eight games below .500. 

The Steelers are in a nightmare situation right now: They can’t beat bad teams, they can’t beat good teams and they’re stuck with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback for at least another week. 

The last time we saw Trubisky on the field, he was making throws like this against the Patriots: 

The Steelers offense struggled for most of the season with Kenny Pickett under center and it’s only gotten worse with Trubisky. He tends to struggle when he’s under pressure and the problem with that is that he could be facing a lot of it on Saturday against a Colts defense that has the third-most sacks in the NFL this year. 

Another thing that’s not working in the Steelers’ favor: Two of their best defensive players — T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith — are both in concussion protocol and if just one of them can’t play on Saturday, that would be a huge loss for Pittsburgh. 

The pick: Colts 24-17 over Steelers

If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, then I highly suggest that you check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet for every game in Week 15.

Denver (7-6) at Detroit (9-4)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

After watching the Lions play for the past three weeks, I’ve noticed a few troubling things about them: Their defense has gotten progressively worse, their offense has gotten progressively worse and Jared Goff is playing like he just got visited by the Ghost of Christmas Future, who just showed him how depressing the rest of the Lions’ season is going to be if the QB doesn’t get his act together soon. 

Although the Lions have a much better record than Denver, I’m a “what have you done for me, lately” guy and the Broncos have done way more for me, lately. Since the start of Week 7, the Broncos have gone 6-1 and their defense has been one of the best in the NFL over that span. They have a +11 turnover margin over the past eight weeks and they’re only surrendering 15.6 points per game, and both those numbers rank in the top-two in the NFL over that span. 

On the other hand, the Lions have been the exact opposite: Since Week 7, they have a -8 turnover margin and they’re surrendering 28.3 points pre game, which both rank in bottom-two of the NFL over that span. When it comes to the turnovers, one of the biggest issues for the Lions is Goff, who has turned the ball over 12 times since Week 7. That includes turning the ball over three times in three of Detroit’s past four games. Let’s check in with Lions fans and see how they’re feeling about Goff right now. 

OK, you know what, let’s cancel that check-in. I think we all get the point after just one tweet. 

If your quarterback is turning the ball over three times, you usually don’t win the NFL. To put Goff’s 12 turnovers in perspective, there are four teams in the NFL that haven’t even turned the ball over 12 times THIS SEASON and Goff has hit that number just over the past eight weeks. 

So what we have on Sunday is one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the NFL going up against one of a defense that’s been forcing turnovers at a wildly impressive rate. I feel like that can’t be a good thing for the Lions. 

The pick: Broncos 23-20 over Lions

Dallas (10-3) at Buffalo (7-6)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

If there’s one point spread that caught my eye this week, it’s this one. The oddsmakers have made the Bills a 1.5-point favorite over the Cowboys, which sounds slightly crazy to me because the Bills have lost THREE OF THEIR PAST FIVE GAMES. This would be like making me the favorite in a cage match to death against a polar bear. It makes no sense. The bear would maul me to death in five seconds… unless the cage match was taking place in the middle of the Sahara desert, then I might win. I don’t think polar bears can survive in the desert. 

I think my point here is that the location of the game definitely matters. If this game was being played in Dallas, the Cowboys would probably be favored by five points, but with the game being played in Buffalo, that changes things dramatically. For one, the Cowboys have been completely average on the road this year. Although they’re 7-0 at home, they’re just 3-3 on the road and that includes losing a game to the Arizona Cardinals. 

Also, the Bills have been nearly unbeatable at home. Although they’re 7-6 on the season, they’re 5-1 in games that have been played in Buffalo and they’ve looked like a completely different team. Remember when we all thought the Bills were going to be Super Bowl contenders this year? Well, that team exists, it just only shows up for home games. 

The Bills defense has been especially good at home: They’ve surrendered just 14.5 points per game in Buffalo, which will definitely be something to watch, considering the Cowboys have the highest-scoring offense in the NFL at 32.4 points per game. That being said, this game is outdoors and the Cowboys have only played three outdoor games since Week 5. In those three games, they’ve gone just 1-2 while averaging only 22 points per game. 

I feel like this is going to be a close game and as odd as it may sound, Sean McDermott’s bizarre 9/11 comments might end up being the difference here. Ever since those comments from 2019 became public last week, it really feels like the team has rallied around him. 

I’m starting to think McDermott leaked the entire story himself just to fire up his team. The Bills have their backs against the wall and they can’t afford anymore losses if they want to stay in the AFC playoff race, which means I expect them to play desperate. Not to mention, I won’t be surprised if the Cowboys have a small letdown after pulling off their biggest win of the season in Week 14 over the Eagles. 

The pick: Bills 27-24 over Cowboys

Baltimore (10-3) at Jacksonville (8-5)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Over the past two weeks, the Jaguars have played two AFC North teams and they lost both games. In Week 13, they got to play at home against a Bengals team being led by Jake Browning and they managed to lose even though they were favored by 8.5-points. 

In Week 14, the Jaguars traveled to Cleveland and immediately lost to a Browns team that was being led by a guy who spent the first 11 weeks of the season watching football at his mom’s house (Joe Flacco). Not only did they lose both those games, but they gave up more than 30 points in both games. If the Jaguars defense can’t stop Jake Browning and Joe Flacco, I have no idea how they’re going to stop Lamar Jackson. I’ve been trying wrap my head around how they might be able to stop Lamar and the only way I think it would even be possible is if the Jags were able to sign the Cowboys’ entire defense by Sunday, which I don’t think is realistic or even legal. 

Jackson is coming off one of his best games of the year that saw him throw for 316 yards and three touchdowns against a Rams defense that had not surrendered 300 passing yards to any team in the NFL this season. The good news for Jackson this week is that if you just show up for the game, you have a 50% chance of throwing for 300 yards against the Jaguars. 

Heading into Week 15, the Jags have surrendered 265.2 yards per game through the air this year, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have a 90.9 QB rating against the Jaguars defense this season. To put that in perspective, Joe Montana’s career QB rating was 92.3, which means the Jags are so bad on defense that they make every QB they face look like Joe Montana. Now imagine if Joe Montana could run like Lamar Jackson and you’ll understand what kind of trouble Jacksonville might be in on Sunday. 

I feel like the Ravens are going to score a lot of points and I can’t imagine the Jaguars keeping up, especially with Trevor Lawrence still playing on a slightly hobbled ankle. This will mark the fourth time this season that Lawerence has faced a top-8 defense in the NFL and the Jags are 0-3 in the previous three games with losses to the Chiefs, Browns and 49ers. I don’t think this game is going to go any better for them. 

The pick: Ravens 34-20 over Jaguars

Philadelphia (10-3) at Seattle (6-7)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)

For the first time in NFL history, we’re getting a Monday night flex. The Monday game in Week 15 was originally supposed to be Chiefs-Patriots, but making the country sit through another Patriots’ prime-time game would have broken at least three of the clauses in the Geneva convention, so the NFL was forced to move the game. 

Instead of getting the Patriots, we’re ironically getting two teams that actually have a worse record than the Patriots in the month of December. On one hand, we have the Seahawks, who haven’t won a game since Week 10. This team was 6-3 at one point and it looked like they were going to coast to the playoffs, but then the wheels fell off the wagon and the wagon caught on fire. 

As for the Eagles, with a record of 10-1 heading into December they looked like they were in total control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but then they got steamrolled by the 49ers and Cowboys, and now, here we are. 

These two teams actually have something in common and that’s the fact that they can’t stop the pass. There are only eight teams in the NFL this year that have surrendered more than 240 yards per game through the air, and yup, the Seahawks and Eagles are both on that list. 

With the Eagles offense currently struggling, this is the perfect spot for them to get back on track. Not only will Jalen Hurts be facing a Seahawks defense that surrenders 243.6 yards per game through the air, but Seattle also struggles to stop the run. The Seahawks are 1-4 this year when they give up more than 135 yards on the ground, which makes this seem like a good time for Philly to jumpstart a rushing attack that has been mostly dormant for the past two weeks. 

One big mystery in this game is whether Geno Smith is going to play. If he’s on the field, I feel like the Seahawks will keep this close and possibly even pull off the upset, but if Drew Lock is under center, well, let’s just say I don’t have very much faith in Drew Lock.  

The pick: Eagles 26-23 over Seahawks (If Geno Smith plays)The pick: Eagles 27-16 over Seahawks  (If Geno Smith doesn’t play)

NFL Week 15 picks: All the rest

Raiders 17-13 over ChargersBengals 27-17 over VikingsBrowns 23-16 over BearsPackers 27-20 over BuccaneersDolphins 30-20 over JetsChiefs 20-16 over PatriotsSaints 23-17 over GiantsFalcons 27-16 over PanthersRams 31-20 over Commanders49ers 34-20 over Cardinals

Pick that will be changing depending on who the starting QB is: Texans 24-16 over Titans (If C.J. Stroud plays)Titans 19-16 over Texans (If C.J. Stroud doesn’t play)

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that Joe Flacco would lead the Browns to a win over the Jaguars and guess what happened? Joe Flacco led the Browns to a win over the Jaguars. Flacco was so good that the Browns named him the starting QB for the rest of the season, but since this is the Browns we’re talking about, there’s also a small twist here: He can technically be signed away BY ANY TEAM.

FLACCO IS A FREE AGENT. Are you reading this Vikings? You can swoop in RIGHT NOW and TAKE him. HELLO STEELERS!!! Are you guys awake? You have the chance to do the most hilarious thing ever. You can add a new chapter to the Steelers-Browns rivalry by STEALING FLACCO. Someone please steal Flacco. The Browns are basically leaving $10,000 in cash on the dashboard of their unlocked car in an airport parking lot. They are begging to be robbed. Even if Flacco wants to stay in Cleveland, someone just needs to call him and make him an offer he can’t refuse. Someone! Anyone!

DEC. 14 UPDATE: My dream is dead. The Browns signed Flacco to a one-year deal on Thursday, which means he can no longer be stolen from them.

Worst pick: Picking the Raiders to beat the Vikings was my worst pick of Week 14, but not because I got the pick wrong. It was my worst pick because, for some reason, I predicted that the two teams would combine for 43 points. They could have played 71 quarters over three days and I’m not sure they would have hit the 43-point mark. I mean, all I had to do was take a closer look at the quarterback battle and I would have known that there was no living way that this game was going to hit 43 points. A game that features Aidan O’Connell vs. Josh Dobbs just SCREAMS that it’s going to finish with a 3-0 final score, but I didn’t listen to the those screams. I’m now going to go scream in a corner. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, here’s a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year. 

Team I’m 12-1 picking this year (Straight up): PanthersLongest winning streak: Panthers, Seahawks, Rams and 49ers (Six straight wins)

Team I’m 2-11 picking this year (Straight up): Texans Longest losing streak: Packers (Four straight losses) 

Every other team is somewhere in the middle. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 14: 7-8SU overall: 125-83

Against the spread in Week 14: 9-5-1 (20-6-2 over the past two weeks)ATS overall: 106-94-8

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably trying to get Bluey figures out of his toilet.