Max Domi’s defensive struggles at centre are a problem for the Maple Leafs

Sheldon Keefe likes to say that everything “snapped” into place for the Toronto Maple Leafs once they moved Max Domi to third-line centre.

Look at their record and it’s hard to argue: The Leafs are 10-2-4 since Domi knocked David Kämpf down a rung on the depth chart and took over as the 3C.

And yet, even Keefe has acknowledged that it’s far from perfect.

“At times defensively, you see some of the challenges with it,” the Leafs coach said in late November. “(That line has) had to pull some pucks out of our net as they’ve gone through this process as well.”

“But,” he added, “since we made that change, there’s been a big shift in our team.”

A big shift yes, but a burbling conundrum no less for the Leafs with Domi.

The Leafs didn’t plan on lining up this way.

GM Brad Treliving said Domi was pegged to play the wing initially when his one-year deal ($3 million cap hit) was announced on July 2. Keefe cycled through William Nylander (briefly), Kämpf, and 19-year-old Fraser Minten before he finally gave Domi a look at centre.

Domi had struggled to that point.

He got the initial nod on left wing of the second line but lasted a mere two games there. A briefly explored third line of Domi on the left side of Kämpf and Matthew Knies was a disaster (35 percent expected goals), which led to Domi sliding into the middle on Nov. 6, with Nick Robertson and Calle Järnkrok joining him.

The underlying numbers for those three together basically match the actual numbers and look splendid: The Leafs have won almost 62 percent of the actual goals in their 107 minutes (8-5) and 60 percent of the expected goals.

Domi has collected 10 points (including nine assists) in those 16 games, good for seventh on the team.

What conundrum, then, are we talking about?

It starts with trust, and you don’t need to look too hard to find it missing at times for the Leafs coach.

Some nights, Domi barely plays. Earlier this week against the New York Rangers, in a blowout win, Domi totaled just over 10 minutes, the fewest of any forward that night and more than only seventh defenceman Max Lajoie.

Domi logged seven minutes and 58 seconds during the Leafs’ second game in Sweden, topping only his linemate, Robertson.

What often causes trust to dissipate and was a major factor in his almost immediate removal from the second line: Decision-making with the puck.

A poor pass to Jake McCabe in the Leafs zone led to Columbus’ first goal on Thursday night. Plays like that happen all the time, like in that Ranger game the other night:

There was this one shift against the Bruins earlier this month that had to have infuriated Keefe. Domi turned the puck over not once…

Not twice…

But three times.

Flubs like that look bad in the regular season. They can be a death blow in the playoffs.

Those kinds of plays have often led to long, energy-sapping shifts on defence and dangerous chances against.

Defence was not a Domi strength to begin with (glaring again on the Blue Jackets’ OT winner). He’s not the kind of centre that Keefe would prefer to play against anyone dangerous. That’s that trust element again. Opposing head coaches have tried to pick on the Domi line with last change, which explains, say, the low minutes some nights, particularly on the road.

Kämpf has drawn slightly more five-on-five minutes per game away from Toronto (11:02) than Domi (10:55) during Domi’s run as the third centre.

The need to protect Domi becomes problematic in a playoff series, especially for a Leafs team with a John Tavares line that requires some insulation and a Kämpf-led fourth line that’s been roundly outplayed.

It’s hard to imagine Keefe feeling good about playing Domi and Robertson together in the spring.

A lot has been made about Domi’s postseason performance offensively — 13 points in 19 games — for the Stars last spring. Less explored: Dallas was outscored when Domi was on the ice at five-on-five, yielding a team-high 15 goals (again, in only 19 games).

With no changes to the roster, Keefe will have only one unit he can trust absolutely and that’s the one with Auston Matthews on it. Last spring, the Leafs coach had Ryan O’Reilly around in the Domi spot to absorb a good chunk of that burden, which freed Matthews’ groups to play more on offence.

The Leafs should go find another O’Reilly, right? The question is who and at what cost? Can the front office address the 3C need and the need(s) on the back end? Or is it one or the other? That’s another part of the conundrum.

The best possible who out there, potentially, is a guy that Treliving once acquired in Calgary: Elias Lindholm, who’s in the last year of his contract ($4.85 million cap hit). Lindholm would be a home-run solution for the Leafs at both ends of the ice.

Would the Calgary Flames trade him, and if so, at what cost?

Can Treliving assemble some sort of blockbuster that nets his team Lindholm and Chris Tanev? Do the Leafs make that kind of splash for two players without contracts beyond this season? Would they — should they — in that scenario consider a pricey long-term extension for Lindholm, who will be 30 in the first year of that deal? Would Lindholm want to play in Toronto?

Ideally, the Leafs are netting a third-line middleman who can produce offence like Domi can and not burn them at the other end, like Domi also can.

That’s part of the whole conundrum with Domi: He has provided some needed juice offensively. He can really make a play. And with a fourth line that provides almost nothing in that department, that’s been valuable.

Flyers’ centre Scott Laughton, say, might sturdy the third line up defensively but at what cost offensively? Laughton, signed for two more seasons at $3 million on the cap, had a career-best 18 goals and 43 points playing huge minutes last season. He’s regressed to just two goals and 13 points in the first 29 games this season, he won’t make plays like Domi and it’s been a struggle for him overall.

Laughton feels like only a marginal upgrade on Kämpf.

Sean Monahan, a pending UFA who played for Treliving in Calgary, might help a bit offensively and hurt at the other end.

Another part of the Domi conundrum: He was much less influential on the wing. He looked slower and less involved in the play. (He still has only one goal all season, which isn’t insignificant for a $3 million player.)

If the Leafs go out and acquire someone to move into the middle, what does that mean for Domi? Where does he fit? Land a big fish like Lindholm and maybe Domi can hang alongside him and Järnkrok. Does Domi, a pending UFA himself, end up moving in a deal for someone who better suits the team’s needs?

Domi hasn’t been a bad signing, just an ill-fitting signing, a squarish peg jammed, somewhat unexpectedly, into a round hole. Fine for the regular season, maybe. Not so fine when it counts most.

—Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, Hockey Reference, and Cap Friendly

(Photo: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)