Dreaming of a white Christmas? Keep dreaming

LANSING — Dreaming of a white Christmas? Your best plan may be to keep dreaming.

While the weather forecast could change — it is a season known for miracles, after all — the predictions say snow shovels and plows will sit unused until after Christmas in Michigan.

“We’re just not expecting to see the snowfall, pretty much at all,” said Scott Thomas, a National Weather Service meteorologist based in Grand Rapids, where the Greater Lansing forecasts are crafted. He said the best chance for snow before Christmas is Monday, but that will likely be mostly lake-effect snow with little chance of Lansing getting a 1-inch accumulation, which is the typical “white Christmas” standard.

And even if Monday does bring an inch of snow, that accumulation likely won’t stick around since the week leading up to Christmas is expected to include several days with temperatures reaching near 40 and no more good chances of precipitation.

As experts had predicted, an El Nino pattern has largely kept the snow at bay this season.

Weather forecasters say temperature and precipitation won’t line up to create snow in measurable amounts in mid-Michigan until after Christmas, aside from Monday’s chance at some lake effect snow, according to the National Weather Service’s Grand Rapid office.

Forecasts currently go through Dec. 24, but a long range looks at the fundamentals do not change the no-snow expectations for Lansing and most of the state, Thomas said.

While the numbers say don’t expect snow, history offers a glimmer of hope: From 1981 to 2020, Lansing’s Capital Region International Airport reported snow 51% of the time at Christmas, according to records from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which defines accumulation as an inch of snow on the ground for Christmas morning.

A year ago, hopes for a white Christmas were realized when the Lansing area, along with most of Lower Michigan, got hit by a major winter storm with blizzard conditions and heavy gusts from Dec. 22 to Dec. 25.

Vehicle crashes and poor conditions led to the closure of several major highways and interstates. The Lansing area snowfall ranged from 5 to 13 inches, according to the National Weather Service.

This year, if you’re looking for snow, the northern areas of the state have slightly better chances, notably during the anticipated lake effect event Monday, Thomas said.

But across the entire U.S., there will be few chances for a Christmas morning snowfall, he said.

The likelihood of post-Christmas snow looks at least a little better, Thomas said.

“As we look out to the two-week mark, we’re looking to keep above-average temperatures and near to slightly below average precipitation,” he said.

No one is looking for a white New Year’s Eve, he said, and the forecasts don’t go that far in advance, but the chances are better than at Christmas.

Contact Mike Ellis at mellis@lsj.com or 517-267-0415

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Dreaming of a white Christmas this year? Keep dreaming, the odds say.