November 10, 2024

NFL Week 14 MNF Giants, Dolphins props picks: Saquon Barkley, Tyreek Hill props and odds

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The Giants and Dolphins square off against the visiting Packers and Titans, respectively, in a Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 14.

We have one player prop and one game prop apiece to consider for tonight’s clashes. For a more in-depth look at the best NFL betting sites, head to our dedicated page, and get in the know with our NFL odds page.

Saquon Barkley player prop odds: Over 90.5 rushing + receiving yards (-112 or better)

Barkley and his blockers will be refreshed coming out of the bye week and have the benefit of home field. The versatile back should also play a significant role in this game as New York looks to attack what is typically the weaker part of Green Bay’s defense: stopping the run.

The Packers appear very likely to be without starting linebacker Quay Walker, who’s listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury and is a key asset against the run. Green Bay is already allowing the third-most rushing yards per game (136.3), including 153.2 per contest on the road.

Barkley is averaging 96.1 rushing + receiving yards per contest this season and has gone over 20 receiving yards in four of nine games, providing a nice complement to his rushing production.

The Pack has allowed a 59-352 line to running backs through the air in 12 games, so there’s certainly a good chance for Barkley to have one of his more productive games as a pass catcher in this spot to help him cash this prop.

Packers-Giants game odds: Each team to score 1+ TD and 1+ FG in first half (+550 or better)

There’s a much safer, game-long version of this prop at -140 or better that’s also an option for those with a bit less risk tolerance.

However, this is a fantastic price to get on a reasonably realistic prop for two not-awful offenses. While that description isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement, it’s a realistic assessment of where both teams are given their current personnel and situation.

Green Bay is the stronger overall unit of the two under usual circumstances, and even though the Pack will be down Christian Watson (hamstring) yet again, they’re used to working around his absences by now. Aaron Jones (knee) appears to be trending down as well as of Monday morning, yet A.J. Dillon has proven capable of thriving in favorable matchups like Monday’s.

On the other side, the Giants were picking up some momentum before their bye and now come in refreshed from the week off.

The Packers are a better first-half offensive team on the road (9.8 PPG per game) than at home (6.2 PPG), while the Giants allow 9.4 PPG per first half per home game. Green Bay is yielding 10.8 points per first half overall as well, which could help facilitate some early points for the G-Men.

Dolphins player props: Tyreek Hill to score a first-half TD (+115 or better)

There are a lot of fun ways to get in on the Tyreek prop action, and this one offers us a nice price on a feat he is highly capable of accomplishing.

Taking Hill’s Anytime TD prop requires taking on some fairly hefty juice (as much as -250), so this bet makes a good bit more sense, especially since the Dolphins will often strike quickly and are such large favorites here that their foot may well be off the gas by early in the second half.

Hill has 12 touchdowns this season, with nine of those coming during the first halves of games. Meanwhile, Tennessee has given up 11 points per first half per road game – a notable increase from the 7.2 per first half they surrender at home – while the Dolphins average an AFC-high 20.8 points per first half per home game.

Assuming the Fins go for the kill early, as is Mike McDaniel’s style, Hill should have an excellent chance of finding the end zone.

Dolphins game props: First-half spread: Dolphins -7.5 (-110 or better)

This prop follows the logic of the Hill bet; namely, that Miami won’t waste much time getting after its inferior opponent.

McDaniel tends to play a style that’s aggressive irrespective of who Miami is facing, usually not choosing to downshift to an unnecessarily conservative style just because the opposing offense may not be very threatening on paper.

The take-no-prisoners approach from the opening whistle has helped lead to Miami averaging just under three touchdowns per first half at home while holding opponents to just 11.4 per first half in that split.

The Dolphins have been even better at point prevention early in recent games, surrendering just 8.7 points per first half in the last three.

The Titans have also been extremely slow starters on the road, putting up a paltry 5.3 points per first half when traveling, the league’s third-lowest figure in that split.

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