NFL Week 14 Thursday Night Bettors Guide: Steelers’ defense too much for Patriots

PATRIOTS at STEELERS

8:15 p.m., Steelers by 6, 30

HANK’S HONEYS: The Patriots, who haven’t had adequate QB play in weeks, might have had a chance to take advantage of the Steelers’ 29th-ranked run defense. But that went out the window when they lost RB Rhamondre Stevenson last week. Having scored a total of 13 points against the average to below average defenses of the Chargers, Giants and Colts over their last three games, how are they supposed to break double digits against a defensive unit with gamebreakers T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick in the lineup? Their best chance is a defensive TD and while Mitch Trubisky is perfectly capable of providing a few holiday gifts, that’s not a good betting strategy.

Actually, when compared to other backup QBs in the league, Trubisky isn’t God-awful and, knowing how this game is likely to play out, Mike Tomlin and Eddie Faulkner, the former RB coach, aren’t going to have Trubisky looking like Tua Tagovailoa. Faulkner is going to lean on a backfield that has rushed for over 130 yards in three straight games.

While the Patriots’ playoff chances are zilch with Bill Belichick helpless and hapless, the Steelers are still in it and under Tomlin. They have usually been a strong team down the stretch. After an embarrassing loss at home against the Cardinals, they are in a good position to bounce back in prime time, always another Tomlin strength (51-27 all time under the lights). Another obscure but pertinent stat shows them 7-0 ATS at home in weeks after scoring 14 or fewer points in the second half of the season.

This is the lowest total low since 1993, which is how far back these two teams have set back offensive football. But it’s justified considering the state of these two offensive units and the defenses that will oppose them. The Steelers have averaged 16 ppg, 28th in a league filled with bad while the Pats have allowed a total of 26 points over the past three weeks. The Patriots have failed to top 17 points in 10 of their 12 games while the Steelers have held teams to 17 or fewer points in seven of their 12 games. Thursday night games strongly tend to go under.

IF I WERE A BETTING MAN: Steelers and the under.