First Alert Weather: Increasing clouds Thursday; Rain develops tonight into Friday morning

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC) – Happy Thursday!

You’ll need the coat once again this morning as temperatures have cooled into the 30s. Several spots in east Alabama are near or slightly below freezing. The good news is that temperatures are several degrees warmer compared to yesterday morning. First Alert AccuTrack Satellite and Radar is showing us dry with a partly cloudy sky.

We are watching our next system develop in parts of Texas this morning. Severe weather will be possible in parts of southeast Texas and western Louisiana later today, but the severe weather will not impact us tonight as this system pushes into Alabama.

Hourly Forecast Today(WBRC)

We are looking at a mostly dry day. I doubt you’ll need an umbrella during the daylight hours. We are forecasting a partly sunny-to-mostly cloudy sky this afternoon with highs in the lower 60s. Winds are forecast to come from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. We’ll hold on to a 20 percent chance for an isolated shower in far west Alabama this evening, but I think the bulk of the rain moves into west Alabama after midnight. If you have any evening plans, we will likely remain mostly cloudy with temperatures cooling into the 50s. Rain chances will remain isolated west of Interstate 65 before 10 p.m.

Showers Likely Friday Morning: If you are hoping for a lot of rain tonight, I have some bad news for you. The latest guidance is now showing the heaviest rainfall developing along the Gulf Coast tonight. If storms materialize along the Gulf Coast, it will rob us of seeing steady and widespread rainfall. With this in mind, I’ve lowered our rain chance from 80 to 60 percent for tonight into Friday morning.

Future Radar – Fri. 7 a.m.(WBRC)

Showers will likely be scattered Friday morning with temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Severe weather is not expected Friday morning across central Alabama. I think the bulk of the rain will move out of central Alabama by the afternoon hours leaving us cloudy with only a 20 percent chance for rain. Highs tomorrow are forecast to warm into the mid 60s. Temperatures may end up close to 70 in parts of Sumter, Greene, Hale, and Bibb counties Friday afternoon. Cooler temperatures will be likely in northeast Alabama. Winds will end up breezy tonight from the southeast at 10 to 15 mph. We might see gusts up to 20 to 25 mph as showers move into our area.

Severe Threat Tomorrow(WBRC)

Severe potential tomorrow appears unlikely for Central Alabama, with the greatest threat remaining along the Gulf Coast Friday. We could see some unstable air develop in southwest Alabama Friday afternoon, but the lack of dynamics will likely prevent rain and storms from developing. We could see a surge of moisture develop Friday night into Saturday morning, so I recommend grabbing the rain gear if you have evening plans.

Strong Storms Possible Friday Night: There’s a very low chance we could see a few strong storms Friday night into Saturday morning as a surge of moisture moves into Alabama. The greatest potential for a strong storm will likely occur in our far southern counties. Areas to watch include Sumter, Greene, Hale, Bibb, Chilton, Coosa, and Tallapoosa counties. The main threat will be strong winds and maybe an isolated tornado. I still think the greatest potential for stronger storms will remain south of our area, but we will watch the radar just in case something develops. I’m just not impressed with the severe weather parameters at this point. Just make sure you stay weather aware Friday night just in case a warning is issued.

Rain Likely Saturday: The big change in the forecast is now showing Saturday as our wettest day. Plan accordingly if you plan to travel to Atlanta to watch the Crimson Tide take on the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game. You will likely have to deal with steady rainfall on Saturday.

The Next Big Thing – Sat. 8 a.m.(WBRC)

I think the bulk of the rain will occur Saturday morning and continue into the afternoon hours across central Alabama. Saturday will likely remain cloudy with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Severe weather appears unlikely across central Alabama Saturday, but I can’t rule out a few thunderstorms. The greatest threat for stronger storms will remain in southeast Alabama and along the Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon and evening.

Isolated Showers Possible Sunday: Sunday is trending drier. We could be dealing with a 30 percent chance for morning showers on Sunday with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 50s. Sunday afternoon is looking mostly cloudy with only a stray shower possible. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid to upper 60s. Rainfall totals over the weekend will likely add up around a half inch to an inch for most of Central Alabama. Higher totals of one to two inches will be possible south of Interstate 20/59 and into the southern half of the state. 

Yard Work Forecast(WBRC)

Looking Ahead: The weather pattern next week is shaping up to be fairly quiet. We could see a few cold fronts move through our area giving us slightly cooler temperatures. Monday is now looking dry with a partly cloudy sky with highs in the lower 60s. We will likely see temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s next week with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Long-range models hint that we could see rain chances develop next weekend, but it remains too far out in time for specific timing and placement of the rain.

Tropical Update: Today is the last day of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season! It looks like we ended up with the fourth most active Atlantic Hurricane season with 20 named storms. Seven hurricanes formed this season. Three of those hurricanes became major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater). Only one hurricane impacted the United States this season. It was Idalia that struck Florida as a Category 3 hurricane. Most of the storms that formed this season developed in the Atlantic and stayed away from the U.S. East Coast.

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season(WBRC)

It looks like the forecast verified for an active hurricane season despite a strong El Nino. One of the main reasons for the active season is the record-breaking heat in the Atlantic Ocean. 

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Have a great Thursday!

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