Who would have better Stanley Cup odds in fantastical Connor McDavid-Ilya Sorokin blockbuster?

This trade is not going to happen and it never would have happened. It is not a serious proposition even if maybe it should be. 

It is immaterial that the Oilers had won three straight — including their first two with incoming head coach Kris Knoblauch — entering Saturday’s match at Tampa Bay after bottoming out at 2-9-1. The team could be 2-12-1 and this trade would not have been considered. 

This is not merely Fantasy Land material. It is Fantastical Land matter. 

But here is my question. Adopting suspension of disbelief in world’s record proportions, which team do you think would have a better chance to win the Stanley Cup if the Oilers and Islanders pull off this deal? 

Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard and either Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard from Edmonton to the Island in exchange for Ilya Sorokin and Mat Barzal. 

You know how there are times where you’re in a dream and you try to fix it so that it is consistent with some semblance of reality? Well, that is why I tried to come close to matching money and cap hits. 

Barzal and Sorokin will account for $17.40M under the cap beginning next season when No. 13’s six-year extension kicks in. McDavid, Bouchard and Skinner would account for $18M in aggregate cap space starting next season, with Pickard reducing the hit by approximately $1.9M. 

Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers takes a shot during the second period of their NHL game against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena on November 6, 2023.Getty Images

McDavid, who turns 27 in January, owns a no-move clause on his contract that brings him into unrestricted free agency following 2025-26. We are going to pretend for this exercise that No. 97 would waive it, knowing that otherwise you’d be staring at a blank space in your paper or on your screen. 

The suggestion that this would be a balanced trade on hockey merits presupposes that Sorokin would regain his form from a year ago when he was a Vezina finalist, third in the league at Goals Saved Above Expected per 60:00 and Save Percentage Above Expected, per MoneyPuck. This year, Sorokin ranks 28th and 27th, respectively, in those categories, among 51 goaltenders with at least six games. 

Under the glitter, the existential question is whether having the best — or, at worst, dominant top-three — goaltender in the league is more beneficial when it comes to the playoffs than having the supernova of skaters? 

Ilya Sorokin of the New York Islanders makes a save against Connor McDavid.NHLI via Getty Images

And especially with Barzal — whose wattage has been dimmed on the Island, and for the life of me I can’t figure it out — primed to become the 1B to Leon Draisaitl’s 1A in Edmonton. 

The Islanders would — or should — do it in a minute. They’d be considered for the Winter Classic, and everything. Bouchard would improve the back end in front of No. 1 Semyon Varlamov. UBS would become a destination, wouldn’t it? It wouldn’t matter if McDavid were to flee in three seasons. Where do you expect the Islanders to be three years from now, anyway? 

Of course, McDavid might leave Edmonton as a free agent, as well, only the team won’t be receiving Barzal and Sorokin has compensation. 

The Oilers, who just hired McDavid’s junior coach to run the big club only a few months after hiring McDavid’s agent, Jeff Jackson, as CEO of hockey operations, likely wouldn’t hear of it even after buying a ticket to Fantastical Land. The hierarchy might have to trade itself. 

Ilya Sorokin is the Islanders’ star netminder.USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Again, of course this is looney tunes stuff. And though I thoroughly understand why, I wonder: would the Oilers have a better shot at the Cup after making this trade? Would the Islanders? 

I would suggest the answer is in the affirmative on both sides of the equation. 

Jack Hughes was the leader in the clubhouse for the Hart Trophy when the New Jersey center went down in St. Louis on Nov. 3. 

His older brother, Quinn, is most certainly going to be in the conversation for the Norris Trophy. 

If they can pull off the double, the Hughes boys would become the first brothers in NHL history to win balloting for postseason awards in the same season. 

Phil Esposito won the Hart in 1974 while Tony Esposito shared the Vezina that season with Bernie Parent. 

Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks skates with the puck past Jonathan Huberdeau of the Calgary Flames.Getty Images

But that was when the Vezina was awarded to the goaltender of the team that had allowed the fewest goals. 

Balloting that is conducted by NHL GMs was inaugurated for the 1981-82 season. 

It is appropriate for NHL GMs to examine how to improve the entertainment quotient of three-on-three overtime that has too often descended into tedium with players in possession refusing to give up the puck. 

That has led to constant regrouping in the neutral or defensive zone after bringing the puck back across the blue line. 

You could stop play and hold a faceoff if teams do it, but that solution would be worse than the problem. Like Hydroxyquinol. You could enforce change of possession soccer-style, but, come on, really? 

NHL GMs are set to examine the overtime format.USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

Three-on-three is a gimmick. How much more would Ninth Avenue gimmick up such an impactful portion of the season? As of Friday, one-tenth of games extended to OT. 

The issue that to which the NHL will never give more than the most cursory thought is the losers’ point itself which skews the standings. 

But, before play on Saturday, 23 of 32 GMs could point to their teams being at least NHL .500, so what more could you want to know? 

I’m thinking that Kirill Kaprizov might want to consider shaving his head.