Anthony Albanese has pulled off a successful double act in the US and China — but what comes next?

On his first morning in China, Anthony Albanese parted a sea of dark suits during breakfast peak hour at the famous Shanghai Peninsula Hotel, proudly wearing his green-and-gold T-shirt.

Still sweating from a power walk down the Bund, the brightly clad prime minister drew everyone’s attention and brought back sharp memories of John Howard, who would also begin most days in the world’s big cities briskly pounding past famous landmarks with a similar splash of patriotic colour.

For Howard, it was the Wallabies tracksuit. Albanese opts for the modern-day equivalent of a team the whole nation can proudly back: the Matildas.

Howard, by the way, would also invite the travelling media to come along on his morning walks, try to keep up, and capture some images of him waving hello to curious locals.

Albanese, by contrast, was only captured on a mobile phone video by The Australian’s Will Glasgow, who just happened to be out on the Bund himself.

The video would later find its way onto social media, leading to China’s Premier Li Qiang offering the most memorable observation of the entire visit — that some WeChat users were calling Albanese a “handsome boy”. Howard never got that.

It’s more than the green and gold clobber Albanese was borrowing from Howard. He’s adopted a similar approach to China altogether.

Some years after leaving office, the former prime minister summed up how he navigated the relationship. “I said to [former Chinese President] Jiang Zemin that what we have to try and do is focus on areas where we agree rather than obsessing about areas where we don’t agree.”

For Albanese, the formula is “cooperate where we can, disagree where we must”.

There’s some difference in emphasis, but both Howard then and Albanese now are making the same point: the differences with China shouldn’t completely overwhelm the relationship. The difficult stuff shouldn’t get in the way of doing business.

Loading…It’s more than an economic question

There’s a strong economic argument for such pragmatism. Wine makers, lobster farmers, and beef exporters will all celebrate if, as expected, remaining trade sanctions are soon removed.

The lifting of restrictions on coal, barley and other products has already delivered a boost of nearly $6 billion in exports to China, according to the prime minister. That means more jobs and gives Albanese some sort of answer to the inevitable criticism of his international travel.

The release of detained Australian journalist Cheng Lei is also something to unquestionably celebrate.

But is there a strong national security argument for the “cooperate where we can, disagree where we must” approach? That’s less clear.

Security hawks worry it lets China off the hook over its continued aggression in the region, flouting of international rules, cyber attacks, and intellectual property theft, recently described by the ASIO director-general as “unprecedented”.

The prime minister’s retort to such concern is that the ability to engage at least means these issues can be raised directly at the most senior levels. They certainly were this week, when Albanese met both President Xi Jinping and the premier in Beijing.

Back when Australia was in the deep freeze under the Morrison government, there was no ability at the leader or even ministerial level to express such concerns face to face.

Still, it’s difficult to know whether Xi is likely to take much notice of Australia’s concerns, however directly they’re expressed. Or whether he will simply offer a passive smile, an insightful Chinese proverb, and carry on regardless.

Even when relations were at their friendliest nine years ago, when Tony Abbott invited Xi to address the Australian parliament, China continued to dial up defence spending, crack down on its Uyghur population, and was preparing to militarise the South China Sea.

Maybe this time will be different. Maybe not.

LoadingTwo relationships rekindled

It seems unlikely Xi will drop his ambitions in the region. He wants to seize control of Taiwan and ensure China is the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific.

And despite the rapprochement with Australia, China is if anything, becoming more aggressive not less in the South China Sea.

Indeed, just two weeks ago, after their meeting at the White House, Albanese and US President Joe Biden issued a joint statement specifically criticising China’s “dangerous use of coast guard vessels and maritime militia” to interfere with “routine Philippines maritime operations around Second Thomas Shoal”.

“We are concerned about China’s excessive maritime claims that are inconsistent with international law,” the two leaders said, “that may raise tensions and increase the risk of miscalculation in the region”.

That fear of “miscalculation” is very serious and its inclusion in the joint leaders’ statement was very deliberate. Australian government sources say miscalculation includes both the risk of a mishap at sea spiralling into something bigger, or a more serious miscalculation by China in underestimating the resolve of the Biden administration to act.

For all the uncertainty about how far and how fast China may continue to push things in the region, Albanese has managed to pull off a successful double act over the past fortnight with his visits to both Washington and Beijing.

Strengthening and broadening ties with the US, while at the same time re-engaging with China.

Even the opposition, for all its deep suspicion of any softening towards China, has settled on a position of welcoming the engagement, along with the easing of trade sanctions and the release of Australian journalist Cheng Lei.

The US too is on a similar page, despite the great power rivalry. Biden and Xi are expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco next week.

Albanese will be back in the US for that summit too. It’s a trip he might have preferred to miss, given the darkening political mood at home over cost-of-living, another interest rate rise, and grumbles over all this prime ministerial globe-trotting.

But skipping APEC and sending someone more junior in his place would have been a snub to the host. Biden will want friends and allies around the table. Especially the “handsome boy” who’s now on speaking terms with Xi.

Albanese will need to give the Matildas T-shirt a quick rinse and pack his bag again.

David Speers is National Political Lead and host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.