Kompany wedded to style of play but statistics do not bode well for Burnley

Football often boils down to simple statistics, the sort that proved Burnley were one of the most exciting teams in England last season. Vincent Kompany’s side scored the Championship’s most goals, conceded the fewest and secured 101 points on their way to securing their Premier League return at the first time of asking.

Unfortunately for Kompany the top-flight table after 11 matches looks far less favourable. They sit second bottom with four points, including a solitary victory, scoring eight times and conceding 27. With a trip to Arsenal on Saturday, things are starting to look worrying.

Burnley are the first English top flight side to lose their opening six home matches and are yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League. For clubs in a relegation battle, good home form is imperative. Last season the three relegated clubs won the fewest home games – Everton, who stayed up on the final day, won six, one more than Leeds and Leicester. To reach six home victories Burnley will need to win almost half their 13 remaining Turf Moor fixtures.

Everything seemed to go right last season for Kompany, who created a new style after the Sean Dyche era. It was exciting, attacking football that few in the Championship could compete with. The recruitment was impressive: the loanees Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Ian Maatsen and Nathan Tella were key foundations for success but the fact none of them returned for the Premier League campaign has not been successfully addressed.

Kompany is wedded to the passing out from the back that served him well last season and is resolute the style will take Burnley up the league, despite teething troubles. Only the bottom club, Sheffield United, have conceded more goals but adopting a more defensive blueprint would be an admission of failure.

There were 15 summer incomings, costing more than £90m collectively, as Kompany was backed again. The plan was to find value in Europe and players arrived from Belgium, France, Switzerland and Spain in addition to domestic recruits. Signings from Genk, Troyes, Basel and Espanyol have proved not to be ready-made for the Premier League.

Only Nathan Redmond, a free transfer from Besiktas, and the backup goalkeeper Lawrence Vigouroux were not aged 25 or under. It is part of the strategy to buy young players with potential in the hope they can be sold for profit. There is method to the scouting but trying to outsmart the market by finding uncut diamonds comes with risks. It removes the grey areas, offering a black-and-white view of football.

The Premier League is ruthless and experience counts. Of the summer signings, only Redmond, Michael Obafemi, Sander Berge and Dara O’Shea had previous Premier League appearances. The young players have struggled with the tempo and pressure that come with facing Manchester City and Chelsea. Nineteen-year-old Lucas Koleosho has impressed since joining for £3m and is a key asset but there is only so much promise can do in arguably the toughest league in the world.

Vincent Kompany has backed Burnley’s strategy of buying young players in the hope that they can be sold for profit, but it does come with risks. Photograph: Ian Walton/Reuters

“It’s November there’s nothing you can do; your mindset and your focus now has to be that the players you have are the ones that will do the job for you,” Kompany says. “We have an outstanding recruitment team that will always shadow what we do and will always have the conversations with us about what we need to do to get the next step, but that’s an ongoing process that never stops.”

James Trafford joined from Manchester City with high expectations after impressing in League One at Bolton and winning the Under-21 European Championship with England but he has found the step up difficult. Kompany decided spending £19m on a goalkeeper who turned 21 last month was worthwhile, despite Aro Muric being one of the club’s standout performers last season. Many think Muric should take the lead role.

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Considering the number of summer targets Burnley missed out on, whether spending so much on a goalkeeper was necessary is up for debate. One area they fell short in was left-back; Maatsen rejected a return and an alternative was not acquired. Kompany used three players – Vitinho, Hannes Delcroix and Connor Roberts – in the position in the opening three league games but none is a specialised left-back. Eventually, Kompany called upon the club’s only senior left-back, Charlie Taylor, to fill the role even though Taylor had missed out on matchday squads until September.

The absence of the leading scorer Lyle Foster, who is being treated for a mental health issue, will be a loss for Kompany but the club needs to be commended for its approach. “In moments like this you have to put the human first,” Kompany said. In the pressurised environment of professional sport, the Belgian appreciates the need for compassion and understanding. There is more to management than tactics and signings, and Kompany shows all the capabilities needed to inspire change.

Knowing a relegation battle was likely, Kompany contacted managers for advice but his friends Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta were not on the list because they could not relate to what lay ahead. The feedback stated “consistency” was a prerequisite to survive, a trait Burnley are waiting to find. What happens on Saturday will not define the season but the home games that follow against West Ham and Sheffield United may do.

Neither this season nor last is an accident for Burnley – this is where they sit in the hierarchy. If they want to change that, it will take more than money and intelligent management. They will require time, a statistic often overlooked in football.