NFL notes: How many Patriots are guaranteed to return in 2024? Well, not many

Like most bad teams, the Patriots’ future is cloudy.

Head coach? On the hot seat.

Quarterback? Fans are calling for his replacement.

But what about their core?

It seems few players, including rookies Christian Gonzalez and Demario Douglas, can be counted as foundational pieces of the Patriots’ future. Building out, it’s hard to know what other bricks could be laid upon that foundation.

Basically, who among the Patriots is guaranteed to return in 2024?

The questions start immediately at quarterback.

Mac Jones is no lock to start next year. Jones may one day prove to be a starting-caliber quarterback, maybe even an above average one. But it’s unlikely he’ll do so in New England.

The Patriots’ infrastructure has failed him the last two seasons, when Jones’ physical shortcomings have been compounded by mental mistakes and little help. The Pats must decide by May whether to pick up the fifth-year option on Jones’ rookie deal that would keep him under contract through 2025. Even if they pick it up, the front office will likely field competition for him in training camp.

No such competition exists on the roster now. The front office cut Bailey Zappe outright this summer. He was a healthy scratch in Week 6. Third-string Will Grier has not seen any game action, and rookie Malik Cunningham is a project.

New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson stiff arms Buffalo Bills linebacker Terrel Bernard during an Oct. 22 clash in Foxboro. (Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

The first roster lock should be in the backfield: Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson will become extension eligible for the first time this offseason, and the Pats would be wise to approach him about a long-term contract. The front office would also serve itself by finding backups.

Ezekiel Elliott surpassed 2,000 career carries last month and would enter Year 9 next season. Ty Montgomery turns 31 in January, doesn’t play offense anymore and is in a contract year .Former late-round flier Kevin Harris lingers on the practice squad, having failed to make the Year 2 leap. None are guaranteed to return.

The receiver position could undergo a full makeover. Contractually, JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7 million guaranteed for 2024) and DeVante Parker ($3.19 million guaranteed) could be argued as locks. But if the Patriots enter a full rebuild, they could be willing to eat that dead money if/when they can unload one or both via release or trade.

Unfortunately for the Patriots, Kendrick Bourne is headed toward free agency. Expect the front office to approach him about an extension, now that he’s recovering from a torn ACL and would therefore come at a discount. If Bourne returns, he’ll join Douglas as the only receivers safe on cutdown day.

Former second-round pick Tyquan Thornton will no longer be able to guarantee himself a roster spot based on draft status alone. Thornton was a healthy scratch as recently as Oct. 29 at Miami. He had three catches for 15 yards entering the weekend. Sixth-round rookie Kayshon Boutte must also earn his snaps after sitting out virtually the whole first half of the season.

Bill Belichick addresses ‘personal’ Patriots player absences from Germany trip

No tight end is under contract for next season, though Hunter Henry appears to be a strong candidate to re-sign. He is the Patriots’ best tight end, their most consistent and a newly elected captain.

“I feel like I’ve grown a lot, this place has challenged me in a lot of ways,” Henry said in September. “When I first got here, I might have been a little uncomfortable in a way, and I think (New England) pushed me to get out of my comfort zone in a lot of ways, and it was for the better.”

Current starting tackles Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu are set to reach free agency. Inside, Cole Strange and David Andrews are locks, along with fourth-round rookie Sidy Sow. Fifth-round rookie guard Atonio Mafi is likely to return, but falls shy of the guarantee threshold after playing just 28 offensive snaps the last three weeks.

Counting Stevenson, Douglas, Andrews, Strange and Sow, that’s five offensive locks. Three are interior O-linemen, and two are guards.

Defensively, the front seven should look familiar next fall. Defensive linemen Davon Godchaux, Deatrich Wise, Christian Barmore and Keion White aren’t going anywhere for various obvious reasons. Lawrence Guy, however, will turn 34 in March and is headed toward a contract year with zero guaranteed money left on his deal; a recipe for a surprise cut.

Matt Judon and Ja’Whaun Bentley project to again serve as the cornerstones of Bill Belichick’s linebacking corps. The late-blooming Jahlani Tavai is a fellow lock, playing the best football of his career on a team-friendly deal through 2024. He is the only player on the roster with a sack, interception and forced fumble this season.

The Patriots’ glue guy linebacker keeping Bill Belichick’s defense together

Elsewhere, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings and Mack Wilson are all scheduled to hit the open market.

At least the Patriots can count on some continuity at cornerback. There’s Gonzalez, elder statesman Jonathan Jones and 2022 third-round pick Marcus Jones (lost for the year to a torn labrum). It would be tempting to include another 2022 pick, Jack Jones, were it not for his brushes with the law and inability to go an entire football season without violating team rules.

J.C. Jackson’s contract and poor play have ensured he’s tracking for a restructure or outright release this spring. He’s a wild card. Hybrid cornerback/fan punching bag Myles Bryant is scheduled to hit free agency.

At safety, Jabrill Peppers inked a two-year contract last spring and has since emerged as a team leader. He’s found himself and become woven into the fabric of the locker room. He’s going nowhere.

“It’s Year 7. It’s now or never,” Peppers told the Herald earlier this season. “I got a chip on my shoulder. I got a different appreciation for the game since tearing your ACL. Definitely different gratitude. My approach has definitely been different as opposed to prior years. Just as far as my study, things I do to work on my body.”

The same can’t be said for Kyle Dugger, an impending free agent whose camp has yet to strike an extension with the Patriots. Third-round rookie Marte Mapu will stay and develop, possibly as Dugger’s replacement. Veterans Jalen Mills and Adrian Phillips have seen their playing time dwindle this season and could be headed out the door.

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The Patriots intended to release Mills last offseason, then retained him on a revised one-year deal. Mills should find freedom this spring, when Phillips might face the same decision Mills did a year ago: leave or stay on our terms.

Finally, special teams.

Longtime captain Matthew Slater, 38, hinted at retirement Friday. He can’t be considered a lock, and neither can long snapper Joe Cardona, who’s enduring arguably the worst season of his career and would inflict minimal salary cap damage if released. Young specialists Chad Ryland and Bryce Baringer will remain, barring a Rohrwassian disaster. Young gunner Brenden Schooler becomes the next face of the Pats’ special teams as soon as Slater retires.

All together, that’s 20 locks: Stevenson, Douglas, Strange, Andrews, Sow, Judon, Bentley, Barmore, Godchaux, Wise, White, Tavai, Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones, Peppers, Mapu, Ryland, Baringer and Schooler.

However the rest of the season concludes, sweeping change is coming for the Patriots; the one true lock for 2024.

Benching addressed

Patriots cornerbacks J.C. Jackson and Jack Jones were benched to start last weekend’s loss to the Commanders after missing curfew the night before.

Neither player has spoken to reporters since then. Jackson was left home before the Pats’ trip to Germany, a decision Belichick declined to expound upon Friday in Frankfurt. However, veteran teammates addressed Jones’ reaction to his benching and practice performance since then.

AFP/Getty Images

Defensive back Jack Jones signs autographs for fans during Patriots training camp in Foxboro. (Staff Photo/Nancy Lane/Boston Herald)

Bottom line: so far, so good.

“He’s responded,” Pats safety Jabrill Peppers said after Friday’s practice in Frankfurt. “We’re all grown men. He took it like a man. He knows what we expect from him, and we expect we’ll get that from him.”

Patriots captain Matthew Slater was asked Friday how he navigates situations like Jones’, when a player has been punished or is left behind.

“(Belichick)’s going to do what’s in the best interest of the football team, and those decisions are not really up to the players. So once he does make a decision, I think it’s our job to support guys that are here (or) aren’t here,” Slater said. You know, trying to support them or we can try to, you know, encourage the team to keep pushing towards the goal and stay positive.”

He continued: “And then whatever the message is from coach, it’s our job to relay that in our own fashion to our teammates so that we hopefully can all buy into it. But it goes without saying it’s been challenging.”

Zeke’s Finnish family

On Friday afternoon, seated before a throng of German and American media, Pats running back Ezekiel Elliott expressed excitement about playing in his first international game.

But not for the reason most might think.

“I have family in Finland,” Elliott revealed. “They traveled, and they’ll be able to see me live, so that will be cool.”

Included in that family is a grandfather Elliott said travels once a year to see him play in the United States, plus two uncles and a couple cousins.

“One of my uncle’s has seen me play live, but one of them hasn’t. And then my two little cousins, and then their significant others, also. So my two little cousins haven’t seen me live,” Elliott said. “I’m sure they’ve seen videos on TV because I’m sure they’re not (awake) when we play, but I think it’s gonna be a cool experience for them to see me in action.”

Quote of the Week

“I’m not saying it’s Brady-Manning, but it certainly means a lot.” – Patriots captain Matthew Slater on the stakes of Sunday’s game