Fear, parental rights didn’t deliver for NJ Republicans as Democrats hold power | Stile

New Jersey Republicans entered the legislative contests this fall buoyed by optimism. They held a shared hope that maybe — just maybe — their party could finally climb out of the wilderness and back into power for the first time in nearly two decades.

Or, at the very least, they hoped they could continue to weaken the Democratic Party’s iron grip on power in Trenton. GOP candidates wanted to build on the successes their party delivered in 2021, when Republicans stunned the political community by flipping seven seats and dethroned Senate President Stephen Sweeney at the hands of a little known and underfunded truck driver, Ed Durr.

But optimism proved to be no match for the harsh reality of being Republican in a resolutely blue state. The GOP entered the race trailing in fundraising. The party once again fell far behind Democrats in the race for pre-election day voting, either by mail or early in-person voting.

The seal of New Jersey on the rotunda floor in the newly-renovated Statehouse in Trenton on Wednesday, March 22, 2023.

And, at the end of the day, the party lacked a coherent message of hope. It didn’t articulate a vision of future Republican governance. The party sought to stir up its base with messages of fear.

The strategy failed.

The result: It was the Democrats, not the Republicans, who gained ground Tuesday night, winning back five seats.

Republicans hoped for a ‘common sense’ backlash that backfired

The Democrats will maintain their 25-15 edge in the state Senate, in part by defeating Durr, the truck driver in the 3rd Legislative District, which offset an expected loss in the 12th District in Monmouth and Middlesex counties. Sam Thompson, a long-time Republican who defected to the Democrats earlier this year, is retiring and the seat was expected to revert back to Republican hands. Owen Henry of Old Bridge will succeed him.

Throughout the fall campaign, Republicans believed they had a winning formula: Cast the Democrats as morally and politically bankrupt, advancing a series of radical, far left policies that most middle class and centrist voters find objectionable.

Senator Edward Durr on the floor in the New Jersey senate. The Senate voted to approve a $50.6 billion budget, that largest in the state’s history in Trenton, NJ on June 29, 2022.

The party of liberal “King Phil” Murphy — as he was called during the pandemic — had run the table in Trenton far too long. Democrats had lost touch with a public clamoring “common sense,” a favorite GOP buzz phrase. Murphy’s was an administration, Republicans contended, that was banning gas stoves and killing whales by insisting on installing wind turbines off the Jersey Shore. Crime was running rampant in suburbia because of Murphy and the Democrats’ lax crime policies, GOP leaders claimed.

The GOP also ought to harness a grassroots discontent stemming from a belief that public schools had become incubators of permissive, liberal thought that allowed their libraries stacked with books with inappropriate content.

They lashed out at revisions to school sex education curricula that taught some form of sexual orientation to elementary school children. Activists also distorted a state Board of Education policy that prevented school leaders from notifying parents when their children are showing interest in switching genders. Fury over “parental rights” fueled school board contests that were also on Tuesday’s ballot.

Yet, it appears that the parental rights backlash — stoked by social conservative advocacy groups that popped up in the state in recent years — never materialized. In the end, it was an emotional, grassroots crusade that lacked cohesion and a coordinated plan to convert school board anger into get-out-the-vote energy.

The uncertainty and ferocity of the anger at school board hearing and rallies worried Democrats, especially after a Monmouth University poll revealed that a majority of New Jersey voters supported the notifying parents — a finding that only pumped up Republicans confidence that parental rights was going to drive GOP successes.

More Charlie Stile: GOP seizes on culture issues in hope of regaining grip of NJ Legislature on Election Day

‘Can’t let this craziness get out of control’

But Democrats Tuesday night say the issue never cut as deep into the consciousness of the electorate as first believed, and some believe a silent majority of voters angered and frightened over the right-wing’s obsession with the issue had not been adequately gauged.

“We can’t let this craziness get out of control,” said Assemblyman Roy Freiman, D-Somerset, shortly after declaring victory in the 16th Legislative District in Mercer, Somerset, Middlesex and Hunterdon counties.

“We used to dismiss the craziness,’’ he said in a bar in Princeton shortly after declaring victory. “We don’t have that luxury anymore. And we beat the hell out of it tonight.”

New Jersey State Sen. Vin Gopal, D-Monmouth.

The toxic culture war crusade also failed to materialize in the hotly contested 11th Legislative District in Monmouth County, where state Sen. Vin Gopal, D-Neptune, won handily and brought in newcomers Margie Donlon and Luanne Peterpaul, who made history as the first openly LGBTQ+ woman to be elected to the state legislature.

Monmouth was a hotbed of “parental rights” backlash where three school districts who flouted state parental notification policy were sued by state Attorney General Matthew Platkin in June. But Gopal distanced himself from the state policy and criticized Platkin’s decision to intervene.

Former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who formed “Districts for Democracy,” a group that seeks to fend off the culture war issues debates in school district politics, said the parental rights leaders were also likely to pursue book banning efforts once they got their feet in the door.

“There is no way you win an election in New Jersey if you’re trying to ban Shakespeare and defund student mental health,” Malinowski said. “So our challenge was to communicate to voters that the people running around on the parental rights platform were basically going to bring that to New Jersey because they did in every other state where they won elections.”

More Charlie Stile: Can NJ Democrats spin their wind power debacle? They’re facing rough seas

Reproductive rights drove turnout

Democrats also countered with their own culture war cudgel by warning that if Republicans took over the State House, they would be certain to seek to roll back abortion rights. Some Democratic operatives feared this strategy would fail to resonate with voters because New Jersey has had a long history of abortion rights. It didn’t hurt, those strategist argued, that Legislature and Murphy put the issue to rest last year by codifying abortion rights into state law.

Trenton, NJ – June 20,2023 — Senator Gordon Johnson and Senator Andrew Zwicker during a meeting of the Senate Budget and Appropriations Committee. The New Jersey Senate Budget and Judiciary Committees convened today at the statehouse in Trenton before the full senate convened to vote on bills as the state’s budget deadline approaches.

But Sen. Andrew Zwicker, D-South Brunswick, who repeatedly pounded his Republican challenger Mike Pappas of Somerset County for his anti-abortion comments, said it was a significant factor in the race. Voters who may not have been aware of New Jersey’s efforts last year are generally tuned into the national rollback of abortion rights in the Supreme Court and other states.

“When I was knocking on doors, there was definitely concern it was not to be taken for granted,” Zwicker said of abortion rights issue.

A South Jersey renaissance?

In South Jersey, parental rights was less of an issue. Democrats, however, played hardball by unearthing misogynistic Facebook posts Durr posted before entering politics. Democrats also sought to tie Durr’s rantings to the Republican candidates in the neighboring 4th District in Gloucester and Camden counties.

And the Democratic cause may also have been helped by the emergence of “phantom” third party candidates in the 4th District that were enlisted simply to siphon off votes from Republicans.

The success in south Jersey now reinvigorates the South Jersey Democratic machine, a formidable political operation created by insurance broker George E. Norcross III, who announced this spring that he was receding from politics.

It’s unclear what role, if any, Norcross played in Tuesday’s victories, but one thing is clear. South Jersey now has a formidable bloc of five senators to wield in Trenton. The machine was sidelined in 2021.

But now it;s back. And the Republicans remain in the wilderness.

Charlie Stile is a veteran New Jersey political columnist. For unlimited access to his unique insights into New Jersey’s political power structure and his powerful watchdog work, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.

Email: stile@northjersey.com

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: NJ election 2023: GOP losses defy optimism: Charlie Stile