Jim Cramer’s top 10 things to watch in the stock market Wednesday

My top 10 things to watch Wednesday, Oct. 25 1. Microsoft’s (MSFT) quarterly earnings release was simply amazing with no glitches from this Club name. Maybe major share take from Alphabet (GOOGL). Really proved the software giant is one of the most formidable players in the artificial intelligence arms race. Incredible quarter from all divisions from personal computers to gaming. Will AI invade the PC world with chips from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) this winter? Shares of MSFT up about 4% in the premarket. 2. A mailed in, unsatisfactory quarter from Alphabet with no real explanation for the slowing of its cloud business, which fell short of Street estimates, and a really paltry analysis of its NFL Sunday Ticket. Management talked about how the NFL liked it. Well, no kidding. The NFL got $2 billion for the rights. What is the league going to do, complain? I also thought the AI discussion was lame, overly focused on its chat-based tool Bard. Shakespeare at its worst? Still much good at the Club holding, but certainly not explained in the call. The stock sank 6% in premarket trading. We had an excellent note on Alphabet last night, and a separate analysis of Microsoft . I don’t want to flog the Club too hard, but man our analyses were spot on. 3. Texas Instruments (TXN) post-earnings discussion was an example of the conference call at its worst. As usual, total contempt for analysts. But even worse, the industrial business ex-auto for the semiconductor company was awful. Communications is a continual bad theme. I was mesmerized by how glutted the channel is with chips. These guys still spend a lot of money in plant and equipment though and the CHIPs Act is a total windfall. Shares are down more than 5% before the bell. 4. Why the heck is Visa (V) down more than 1% this morning? The key metric here is cross-border volume and it was very good. Payments volume was up 9% for the quarter. Management announced a $25 billion buyback program and raised its quarterly dividend. I started last night’s show with the thought that even good earnings can be trumped by the bond market. You are seeing this now. 5. Embarrassing amount of attention paid to Snap (SNAP), which is a finished company. SNAP is a $15 billion company. Meta Platforms (META) is $800 billion. BTW, Google’s YouTube was the only star in an incoherent conference call. The parent company of Snapchat had 5% positive growth but is still losing money: $368 million loss vs $360 million loss a year ago. Still, shares were up nearly 3% in the premarket. 6. Geopolitical risks mount. The United States drew two lines in the sand. Red Line No. 1: We will “act swiftly and decisively” if Iran or its proxies attacks U.S. personnel. Red Line No. 2: The U.S. renewed a warning Monday that it would defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack under a 1951 treaty after Chinese ships blocked and collided (deliberately?) with two Filipino vessels in South China Sea. Some in Manila have sought U.S. military support as incidents multiply. Will Chinese President Xi Jinping pull the trigger? 7. Where will the Nvidia (NVDA) chips go that were meant for China? How about back to the U.S. to take share from AMD and Intel (INTC). That is the most likely scenario. 8. Is gold breaking out? The biggest winner would be Barrick (GOLD), which is dirt cheap. Copper byproduct is “free.” 9. Otis Worldwide (OTIS) reported great quarterly numbers. What has driven the industrial was record margins of 16.9% thanks to a 90 basis-point improvement in service. Organic sales of elevators is light but what matters is the strength of Chinese service biz, refurbishment and safety. 10. Is the Federal Reserve beginning to win the war on inflation? Used car sales are falling, housing cancellations are spiking. Sign up for my Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free (See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella attends a US Senate bipartisan Artificial Intelligence (AI) Insight Forum at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on September 13, 2023.

Stefani Reynolds | Afp | Getty Images

1. Microsoft’s (MSFT) quarterly earnings release was simply amazing with no glitches from this Club name. Maybe major share take from Alphabet (GOOGL). Really proved the software giant is one of the most formidable players in the artificial intelligence arms race. Incredible quarter from all divisions from personal computers to gaming. Will AI invade the PC world with chips from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) this winter? Shares of MSFT up about 4% in the premarket.

2. A mailed in, unsatisfactory quarter from Alphabet with no real explanation for the slowing of its cloud business, which fell short of Street estimates, and a really paltry analysis of its NFL Sunday Ticket. Management talked about how the NFL liked it. Well, no kidding. The NFL got $2 billion for the rights. What is the league going to do, complain? I also thought the AI discussion was lame, overly focused on its chat-based tool Bard. Shakespeare at its worst? Still much good at the Club holding, but certainly not explained in the call. The stock sank 6% in premarket trading. We had an excellent note on Alphabet last night, and a separate analysis of Microsoft. I don’t want to flog the Club too hard, but man our analyses were spot on.

3. Texas Instruments (TXN) post-earnings discussion was an example of the conference call at its worst. As usual, total contempt for analysts. But even worse, the industrial business ex-auto for the semiconductor company was awful. Communications is a continual bad theme. I was mesmerized by how glutted the channel is with chips. These guys still spend a lot of money in plant and equipment though and the CHIPs Act is a total windfall. Shares are down more than 5% before the bell.

4. Why the heck is Visa (V) down more than 1% this morning? The key metric here is cross-border volume and it was very good. Payments volume was up 9% for the quarter. Management announced a $25 billion buyback program and raised its quarterly dividend. I started last night’s show with the thought that even good earnings can be trumped by the bond market. You are seeing this now.

5. Embarrassing amount of attention paid to Snap (SNAP), which is a finished company. SNAP is a $15 billion company. Meta Platforms (META) is $800 billion. BTW, Google’s YouTube was the only star in an incoherent conference call. The parent company of Snapchat had 5% positive growth but is still losing money: $368 million loss vs $360 million loss a year ago. Still, shares were up nearly 3% in the premarket.

6. Geopolitical risks mount. The United States drew two lines in the sand. Red Line No. 1: We will “act swiftly and decisively” if Iran or its proxies attacks U.S. personnel. Red Line No. 2: The U.S. renewed a warning Monday that it would defend the Philippines in case of an armed attack under a 1951 treaty after Chinese ships blocked and collided (deliberately?) with two Filipino vessels in South China Sea.  Some in Manila have sought U.S. military support as incidents multiply. Will Chinese President Xi Jinping pull the trigger? 

7. Where will the Nvidia (NVDA) chips go that were meant for China? How about back to the U.S. to take share from AMD and Intel (INTC). That is the most likely scenario.

8. Is gold breaking out? The biggest winner would be Barrick (GOLD), which is dirt cheap. Copper byproduct is “free.”

9. Otis Worldwide (OTIS) reported great quarterly numbers. What has driven the industrial was record margins of 16.9% thanks to a 90 basis-point improvement in service. Organic sales of elevators is light but what matters is the strength of Chinese service biz, refurbishment and safety.

10. Is the Federal Reserve beginning to win the war on inflation? Used car sales are falling, housing cancellations are spiking. 

 Sign up for my Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free

(See here for a full list of the stocks at Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.)

As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER.  NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.  NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.