UEFA Euro 2024 qualifiers, playoffs, eliminated teams: England, France, Belgium, Portugal and Spain make it

UEFA Euro 2024 is starting to take shape with eight of the 24 competing teams now known after England, France, Portugal, Belgium, Spain, Scotland, Turkey and Austria all confirmed their tickets for Germany next summer over these past few days. As host nation, the Germans are also qualified without the need to go through the qualification process itself and 16 more teams will follow between now and the November international break.

Who is in so far?

When will the lineup be complete?

UEFA Euro 2024 qualification finishes in November after the final set of international fixtures so we will know 21 of the 24 teams qualified for the group stage by then. However, there will also be playoffs to decide the three final participants which will take place next March, meaning that the full lineup will not be locked in until those games have played.

How many teams advance per group?

Two teams advance automatically per group in the top two spots with Group A — Spain and Scotland — as well as Group F — Belgium and Austria — currently the only two 100% decided groups in terms of automatic tournament spots. However, Georgia and/or Norway could still make it out of Group A and qualify for Germany next summer via the playoffs once those are set next month. The same goes for Group F’s Sweden and Azerbaijan as well as the remotest of shouts for Estonia which also applies to Faroe Islands in Group E and Bulgaria in Group G — none of the trio has even three full points to their names.

So, more than two teams per group?

Not directly, but yes, three or even four teams from the same qualification group could find themselves at next summer’s tournament with one making it through the playoffs. So far, though, Georgia — not Norway — are the only team to be guaranteed a playoff berth despite being two points adrift of the Norwegians and eight back from the Spanish and the Scottish sides in Group A. Essentially, playoffs exist to enhance the chances of most major nations still making it to the Euros despite the potential for a bad year of qualification form. Obviously, in years when that is not necessary, it opens the door to some of the traditional strugglers to finally make it over the line.

How do these playoffs work?

Teams that do not emerge from the qualification group stages can still qualify for Germany next summer via a playoff system which is weighted on form from UEFA’s other competitive international tournament — the UEFA Nations League. Nations Leagues A, B and C will each receive one of the three final tournament berths so that four teams from each of those three leagues that have not yet stamped their tickets can pass through this system. Playoff places are reserved for Nations League group winners — logically the bigger guns — but that gets passed down to the next-best ranked side if the winners already happen to be going to Germany. It is the strongest proof yet that it counts to not totally disregard the Nations League despite many misgivings about its addition to the international soccer calendar. 

So, Nations League form counts?

Yes — the two tournaments are linked by UEFA which lends the Nations League credibility and lessens the chances of future Euros without underperforming big names. The 12 competing playoff teams are based on overall National League rankings and according to specific criteria. Leagues A, B and C each create a path with the four best-ranked but as yet unqualified teams. If one of those leagues has less than four non-qualified teams, the spots are taken by the best group winner from League D — unless than team has also qualified. After that, it is based on ranking with group winners from Leagues B and C unable to face teams from the higher leagues. 

Why are some nations not yet eliminated?

This system, despite some overriding logic, is messy and creates strange scenarios which could see teams actually benefitting from unfavorable results come November as they could theoretically receive a more favorable playoff route. It also explains certain anomalies currently exhibited in the qualifying groups such as Group E’s Faroe Islands and Group F’s Estonia still technically being “alive” with a single point apiece while Northern Ireland in Group H are already eliminated despite a six-point haul. There is also a bizarre scenario forming which could see Group B’s Republic of Ireland benefit from losing to the Netherlands next month ahead of the potential playoffs.

When is the Euro 2024 draw?

The draw itself for the group stages is slated to take place this Dec. 2 in Hamburg’s Elbphilharmonie with host nation Germany pre-assigned top seed status. Julian Nagelsmann’s side will occupy first spot in Group A with other seeds decided according to their European Qualification rankings. The three teams that will come via the playoffs will be in pot four so the teams involved will know what they are playing for come March and pre-drawn sides will be able to keep a close eye on the games that could decide their final opponent.