The Braves Will Be 2024 Favorites Despite Wasting Historic 2023 Season

The defining image of the Atlanta Braves’ 2023 season is one that they would do well to remember when it comes time to get motivated for 2024.

It’s not Ronald Acuña Jr. hoisting second base over his head after becoming the charter member of the 40-70 club. Nor does it involve any of the champagne or novelty apparel that got passed around after they clinched their sixth straight National League East title.

It’s this one, in which Bryce Harper is staring a hole through Orlando Arcia’s soul at the precise moment the Braves’ season became doomed:

The sheer “you got got” energy emanating from that picture captures what Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies did to the Braves in dispatching them from the Division Series for a second year in a row. The Braves won one game. The Phillies got the other three and only trailed after three innings.

In the immortal words of Joe Girardi, it’s not what you want if you’re the Braves. Least of all after a season in which your offense made all kinds of history—including a record-tying 307 home runs and the same wRC+ as the 1927 Yankees—amid a 104-win effort, tying the mark for the franchise’s second-best ever campaign.

At best, it’s a missed opportunity. At worst, it’s a danged waste.

What it’s not, though, is the end of an era. Or even proof that it’s time to go back to the drawing board. Sometimes, a loss is just a loss.

It Wasn’t Just the Phillies Who Beat the Braves

Hats can, should and indeed must go off to the Phillies.

That they were the better team in this series is beyond dispute, and the how is largely the same story of their 3-1 defeat of the Braves in last year’s Division Series. The Phillies got big hits when they needed them and their starting pitchers were excellent. The Braves didn’t enjoy either thing in 2022 or 2023.

What’s also indisputable, though, is that the Phillies didn’t get the Braves at their best.

This is true if for no other reason than what the injury bug did to Atlanta’s starting rotation. In between Spencer Strider’s starts in Games 1 and 4, Max Fried didn’t have his best stuff in Game 2 after returning from an 18-day absence with a blister and Bryce Elder only started Game 3 because Charlie Morton was out with a sprained finger.

It went predictably poorly, with Elder failing to make even one clean trip through the Phillies’ lineup en route to giving up six runs and only getting eight outs.

Meanwhile, the offense that was so good comically better than everyone else’s in the regular season just didn’t show up.

It’s common for offenses to lose something from the regular season to the postseason, with the median OPS drop amounting to 81 points. But these Braves went far beyond that, as their OPS dropped 326 points from .845 to .519. That’s the biggest drop among playoff teams that got to play in at least four games.

Was it good pitching? Undoubtedly, and especially by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.

But was it also rust? There’s at least some smoke there. The Braves did have to sit for five days after the end of the regular season, which could explain why their strikeout rate jumped from 20.6 to 24.1 percent and why they suddenly couldn’t hit fastballs anymore.

The Braves Did Learn a Valuable Lesson About Urgency

Ah, but the Braves aren’t getting off the hook that easily. Part of the reason they weren’t at their best for the Phillies is because they left good enough alone on at least two occasions.

Looming largest in the Division Series was their failure to deepen their rotation at the Aug. 1 trade deadline. With Fried and Kyle Wright (who’s unfortunately out for all of 2024 after having shoulder surgery) on the injured list at the time, they knew it was something they needed to do and they were even eyeing the biggest fish on the market:

Yet the Braves came away with neither Justin Verlander nor any other new starters, and the consequences were apparent long before they trotted out Elder for Game 3. Atlanta’s starters went from having a 4.01 ERA prior to the deadline to a 5.00 ERA after it.

By rWAR, though, the Braves’ weakest position this season was actually shortstop. That’s where there’s a fascinating question, and it’s not even “What if Orlando Arcia hadn’t poked the bear?”

It’s what if Orlando Arcia hadn’t even been around to poke the bear?

He got the job because the Braves basically gave up on trying to keep Dansby Swanson in town and, well, somebody who was already in house had to get it.

Arcia was indeed good in the first half of 2023, even making the National League All-Star squad as a starter. But whether he ever deserved that honor was specious at best, and he eventually devolved into one of the lineup’s weakest links in the second half.

There’s Work To Do, But Nothing To Blow Up

If the lesson here is to never leave anything to chance, then the Braves would do well to not sit idle this winter.

If nothing else, it’ll be a good time to be in the market for starting pitching. The free-agent market will contain such gems as Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Corbin Burnes is likely to be on the trade market.

If the Braves fancy a shortstop, there’s a non-zero chance that Tim Anderson will come available if the Chicago White Sox decline his $14 million option. Otherwise, Willy Adames could be available via trade if the Milwaukee Brewers decide they’d rather keep Burnes.

Otherwise, here’s a quick review of all the key players the Braves have locked up through at least 2024:

This isn’t even counting Morton, Eddie Rosario and Kirby Yates. The Braves hold $34.8 million worth of club options on them for 2024, and the chances of all three being picked up seem strong.

Which is to say that no matter what happens, the 2024 Braves are mostly going to resemble the 2023 Braves. As in, a team that will be pretty much guaranteed to be one of the top contenders in Major League Baseball before Acuña so much as puts a toe in the batter’s box.

Such was the case earlier this year, as the Braves started out as FanGraphs’ heavy favorite to lead the league in wins and to win the World Series. That they did one but not the other doesn’t mean the prophecy wasn’t generally true.

Ultimately, the Braves were the elite team that was promised. It wasn’t just the 104 wins, but the league-best plus-231 run differential. And also their final 14-game advantage over the Phillies in the NL East. Heck, they even went 9-8 against the Phillies in 17 head-to-head contests.

As such, these are not the New York Yankees we’re talking about. Or even the Los Angeles Dodgers. The last the thing the former should have done after a 99-win 2022 season was run it back, and that same warning applies to the Dodgers now even after they won 100 games.

Save for an additional starter and maybe a new shortstop, the Braves darn well should run it back. This team is too good to not get another shot, not to mention probably too ticked at the Phillies to be denied a chance for revenge.

Until it comes, all they have to do is keep that image of Harper in mind.