Back Sam Howell to throw for multiple passing touchdowns vs Bears on TNF

There’s a reason Sam Howell throwing for more than 1.5 passing touchdowns is a prop bet that has underdog odds of +102 on FanDuel. After all, Howell is making just his fifth career start and he’s thrown for more than one touchdown just once in his four starts.

The 23 year old is coming off a game where his team scored 31 points in a losing effort, but he only contributed one passing touchdown. That said, it may have been the best game of his career as he was dynamic on the ground and very accurate with his throws.

Howell and the Washington Commanders host the Chicago Bears Thursday night. His performance in Week 4 and the Bears defense being as poor as it are why I see Howell being able to throw for at least two touchdowns.

Bears vs Commanders prediction: Analysis

(Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EST, Amazon Prime Video)

The Bears and Commanders doesn’t project as a pretty matchup on paper. Chicago are one of the NFL’s last two winless teams for many reasons, with their fourth quarter collapse to the then winless Denver Broncos showing all that’s wrong with this team.

Chicago ranks second to last in opposing points per game, with teams putting up an average of 34.4 against them. Their defense also ranks fifth worst in yards allowed, last in sacks, and last in opponent third down conversions per game.

More so than any concerns on their offense, it’s their defensive struggles that have me puzzled. This team has talent after bringing in Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, and Yannick Ngakoue in free agency. But for one reason or another, they’re arguably the worst defense in the NFL.

As for their offense, Justin Fields can say he played the best game of his career through three quarters last week. But his offensive line is a disaster and Fields himself is still turnover prone with five interceptions and four fumbles through four games.

Washington has had an interesting season. Their first two wins were comebacks against two of the NFL’s lesser teams in the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos. They got mopped 37-3 by the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 and took the Philadelphia Eagles to the limit in Week 4 in a 34-31 OT loss.

I note those results because it’s hard to pinpoint where this team stands in the pecking order of the NFL’s middle pack. Howell has played inconsistently but has also displayed poise and composure at times in every game except for that Week 3 blowout.

Howell’s biggest problem has been his offensive line, which has contributed to him being the most sacked quarterback in the NFL (24). A lot of those sacks are on him for holding onto the ball too long, so how long he holds onto the ball vs a Chicago pass rush that’s struggled to generate anything this year will be noteworthy.

The Commanders’ defense is supposed to be their biggest strength, but they’re a Jekyll and Hyde unit in their own right. Washington ranks top ten in sacks, but their front seven has had moments of vanishing to go along with moments of dominance. This makes it hard to know which team will show up.

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Bears vs Commanders prediction: Pick

Sam Howell over 1.5 passing touchdowns on FanDuel (+102)

I’ve been high on Howell since his college career where he threw 38 touchdowns as a freshman. While he slipped to the fifth round in the 2022 draft, my faith in him was rewarded in Week 17 last year when he led his team to a win over the Dallas Cowboys.

The Bears defensive struggles were already noted, but what wasn’t mentioned was them being without Eddit Jackson and Jaylon Johnson in this game. Those are their two best players arguably on either side of the ball and both play in the secondary.

Although running back Brian Robinson Jr. is a great red zone weapon who could steal a touchdown or two from Howell, Washington shouldn’t have an issue moving the ball and getting chances in the red zone.

Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Logan Thomas each have just one touchdown this year. These players are due for some receiving touchdowns, with Howell being the man to get them those scores.

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