Pelicans could benefit greatly if the Bucks’ season doesn’t go according to plan. Here’s how.

In his first 2½ years in charge, New Orleans Pelicans executive vice president David Griffin made two blockbuster trades.

In 2019, he sent Anthony Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers. The following offseason, he traded Jrue Holiday to the Milwaukee Bucks.

The return on trading two of the greatest players in franchise history in a 17-month span is still being tabulated. The Lakers owe the Pelicans an unprotected first-round pick that New Orleans can collect in either 2024 or 2025. The Bucks owe the Pelicans an unprotected first-round pick in 2027 and three more assets (pick swaps in 2024 and 2026, and a top-four protected first in 2025) that may or may not convey.

The value of the picks and swaps the Bucks might have to fork over to the Pelicans are tied heavily to what their franchise player, Giannis Antetokounmpo, decides to do for the next act of his career.

In August, Antetokounmpo told The New York Times that he had no plans to sign an extension with Milwaukee this summer.

“The real question’s not going to be this year — numbers-wise it doesn’t make sense,” Antetokounmpo said. “But next year, next summer it would make more sense for both parties. Even then, I don’t know.”

He added: “I would not be the best version of myself if I don’t know that everybody’s on the same page, everybody’s going for a championship, everybody’s going to sacrifice time away from their family like I do. And if I don’t feel that, I’m not signing.”

Antetokounmpo has two years remaining on his deal. If he decides not to sign an extension with Milwaukee in 2024, that could leave the Bucks in the difficult position of having to decide to trade the two-time MVP or play out the final year of his contract and risk losing him for nothing.

The Pelicans already moved the 2025 first-round pick the Bucks owed them in the CJ McCollum trade. They will only retain that pick if it falls in the top four. Even if that pick does not convey, the Pelicans still have swap rights in 2026 and a 2027 Bucks first-round pick that look a lot more interesting if Antetokounmpo is no longer on the roster. 

The Bucks won 58 regular-season games last season, the most in the NBA. But in April, the top-seeded Bucks lost to the Miami Heat in a stunning first-round playoff series that lasted just five games.

Over the summer, the Bucks re-signed starting center Brook Lopez to a two-year, $48 million deal. That ensured they were able to keep their core group of players who complement Antetokounmpo intact. But that group of players is aging. Lopez will be 36 years old before the 2023-24 playoffs begin. Holiday turned 33 in June. Khris Middleton, who was limited to 33 games last season because of knee issues, is 32 years old.

The 28-year-old Antetokounmpo, who averaged 31.1 points and 11.8 rebounds last season, is a two-way force who is still in his prime. If he decides not to sign an extension next summer, the list of teams angling to trade for him will be long.

Instability in Milwaukee this season could greatly benefit New Orleans down the road. For Milwaukee, losing Antetokounmpo would be akin to the Cleveland Cavaliers losing LeBron James in 2010.

The Cavaliers won 61 games in 2009-10. Then James bolted for the Miami Heat. The season after James left, the Cavaliers won 19 games. They had the worst record in the NBA.