The Chiefs’ $567 Million Gamble Officially Went Bust, at Least for a Night

The cliché says that a new season officially turns the page on the previous campaign, and the Kansas City Chiefs experienced that reality Thursday night. The last time the club stepped on the gridiron for a competitive game, it ended with the Lombardi Trophy. This week’s outing, however, played out much differently.

With two of his biggest-name teammates out of the action, Patrick Mahomes couldn’t get the Chiefs over the hump. A combination of individual errors, some questionable decisions and Detroit’s physicality saw the Detroit Lions leave Arrowhead Stadium with a 21-20 victory.

And while there will be plenty of debate about the game moving forward—should Travis Kelce have played? Would Chris Jones have made a difference?—there’s a more cut-and-dried lesson to take forward. Nights like this are simply the risk of committing big money to a handful of stars.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts in the final plays of the fourth quarter in Thursday’s game against the Detroit Lions in Kansas City, Missouri. David Eulitt/Getty Images Chiefs’ Spending Built Around a Few Stars

Whether you like it or not, the NFL has a hard salary cap, which limits what each team can spend. Building a roster under that ceiling is like piecing together a puzzle, and KC General Manager Brett Veach has chosen to set aside a few major pieces before filling in the gaps.

Those large expenditures are, of course, Mahomes, Kelce and Jones. When you combine the three stars’ current deals—Jones is, of course, angling for a massive extension—they account for a shade over $567 million in spending across their total contracts, according to Spotrac.

If that sounds massive, things seem even larger when you look at things on a per-year basis.

For the 2023 season, Mahomes’ cap hit is just under $40 million—that accounts for 18.01 percent of the Chiefs’ available cash. Kelce’s $14.8 million takes up another 6.71 percent, and Jones, despite his absence, still counts for another 12.83 percent of the cap.

Add Joe Thuney, who carries a cap hit of just over $22 million this year (10.03 percent of the cap), and KC is using nearly 50 percent of its available cash on four players. For reference, an NFL roster contains 53 players.

Game Started With Proof of KC’s Success

While devoting a disproportionate chunk of your salary cap to a handful of players may seem like a less than ideal choice, Thursday’s game began with a clear demonstration of why teams like the Chiefs make that choice. Kansas City opened the season by celebrating last season’s Super Bowl success, and that Lombardi Trophy doesn’t come to the Midwest without the star players.

At the risk of painting with a broad brush, roll the tape of any 2022 win. The fingerprints of Mahomes, Kelce and Jones—or some combination of those men—will be all over the victory.

Just consider Super Bowl LVII. Mahomes threw for only 182 yards, but he passed for three touchdowns and added 44 key yards on the ground. Kelce led the team in receiving yards (81) and found the end zone. Jones posted a modest stat line—three total tackles—but commanded plenty of attention in the trenches and helped prevent the Eagles from fully taking flight.

Is using a good chunk of your salary cap space on a few players a risk? Yes, but it’s tough to complain when those gambles ultimately lead to a jackpot.

Spending Also Affects the Chiefs’ Depth Chart

As any gambler can tell you, though, you’re not always going to come out on top. That’s what the Chiefs saw firsthand on Thursday night.

Spending big money on star players is great, but that top-heavy strategy will leave you exposed when they’re not in the lineup. Against the Lions, Mahomes was the only member of KC’s big three in uniform. Jones, of course, is holding out, and Kelce was sidelined following a knee injury in practice.

And while the defensive unit held its own in Jones’ absence, the offense looked a bit disjointed without No. 87. He and Mahomes have a special connection, and the tight end is often allowed to improvise his routes to take advantage of the opposing defense. Without that presence, the Chiefs spread the ball around.

That didn’t exactly pay off.

Mahomes targeted 12 different pass catchers, and none of them finished the night with more than 48 receiving yards. Drops, most notably from Kadarius Toney, plagued the offense. The ground attack, which can be solid if sometimes unremarkable, also evaporated. Mahomes was KC’s leading rusher, and a failed end-around on a crucial third-and-short summed up the lack of success.

Letting players walk to keep big names under contract is all well and good on paper, but trusting depth means you’re walking a tightrope. One absence, which can happen at any time, will push your limited options into the limelight.

The Chiefs, for example, couldn’t afford to keep JuJu Smith-Schuster. That’s OK in isolation, but with Kelce sidelined, it means your receiving options are headlined by Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and an unproven supporting cast. And when no one within that group steps up, things are going to look ugly.

To be clear, that’s not to suggest the Chiefs have blundered by tying their collective wagon to Mahomes, Kelce and Jones. That would be a nuclear-level overreaction, given the club’s recent run of success. Ultimately, you can’t argue with the results.

At the same time, though, Thursday night’s game is the perfect reminder that you can live and die by the same sword. And that’s something the Kansas City Chiefs are simply going to have to accept.