Ranking Early Offseason Landing Spots for Mets’ Pete Alonso amid Trade Rumors

Ranking Early Offseason Landing Spots for Mets’ Pete Alonso amid Trade Rumors

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The Mets will soon have a decision to make with Pete Alonso.Al Bello/Getty Images

The New York Mets just finished dismantling their 2023 roster, yet it won’t be surprising if Pete Alonso finds himself back on the trading block this winter.

The slugging first baseman was dangled by the Mets ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post, though he clarified the team’s “asking price was very high and they never came close to dealing him.”

This hardly guarantees the Mets will put Alonso, who’s due for free agency after 2024, back on the block during the offseason. Yet it almost sounds like he’s expecting it.

“As of right now, I’ll be here next year,” the 28-year-old said, according to Puma, and he went on to elaborate: “What I mean by that is I don’t know if I’m going to be here for longer. Right now I love being here and it’s great. New York is home…I am just saying as of now I am guaranteed next year and we’ll see what happens. Hopefully it’s longer.”

His uncertainty is warranted, and not just because he’s already been on the block. A contract extension has obviously failed to materialize, and owner Steve Cohen did say after that next year’s team “won’t be as star-studded.”

With all this in mind, let’s ponder Alonso’s potential value on the 2023-24 offseason market and speculate on 10 teams that could make a play for him.

What Is Alonso’s Value?

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Pete AlonsoRich Schultz/Getty Images

Even if no team was willing to pay it, the Mets were right to put a high asking price on Alonso. And they would be again if they were to put him out there this winter.

Alonso has, after all, hit an MLB-high 183 home runs since he debuted in 2019. And while he was initially cold after returning from a wrist injury in June, he’s since cranked 11 home runs over 23 games. He’s at 37 homers and an .851 OPS for the year.

If there’s a counterpoint, it’s that his value is limited by his shortcomings. He’s hitting .223 this year and generally doesn’t offer much in the way of baserunning or defense.

The counter to the counterpoint is that scarcity could boost Alonso’s value during the winter. The free-agent market will be very light on hitters, with basically no sure bets for big-time power outside of Shohei Ohtani.

Especially since they don’t have to trade Alonso, the Mets would thus be justified in holding out for an overpay. The man himself, meanwhile, could look to follow the Matt Olson blueprint and immediately sign an extension with a new team. The eight-year, $168 million deal he got might even be the baseline for what he could command.

In any case, Alonso’s market would likely be limited to win-now teams with money to spare. In ranking 10 candidates, how badly they need him and what they could offer were considered.

10-6: Phillies, Yankees, Astros, Mariners, Padres

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Bryce HarperRich Schultz/Getty Images

10. Philadelphia Phillies

First Base Stats: 15 HR, 60 RBI, .256 AVG, .313 OBP, .395 SLG

First Base WAR: Minus-0.2

In theory, the Phillies could pursue Alonso rather than re-sign Rhys Hoskins this winter. But they could always make Bryce Harper’s transition to the cold corner permanent. Then there’s the tricky proposition of two NL East rivals hooking up on such a big trade.

9. New York Yankees

First Base Stats: 14 HR, 47 RBI, .240 AVG, .315 OBP, .367 SLG

First Base WAR: 0.6

Even setting aside how little they’ve gotten from first base this year, the Yankees badly need another impact hitter alongside Aaron Judge. But there will only be space for Alonso if the Yanks part with Anthony Rizzo, whose contract runs through 2024.

8. Houston Astros

First Base Stats: 14 HR, 64 RBI, .229 AVG, .289 OBP, .361 SLG

First Base WAR: Minus-0.8

This is two years in a row that Houston has had a problem at first base, but trading for Alonso would require certain sacrifices. Namely, turning José Abreu into a full-time designated hitter and an already injury-prone Yordan Álvarez into a full-time outfielder.

7. Seattle Mariners

First Base Stats: 11 HR, 53 RBI, .259 AVG, .340 OBP, .395 SLG

First Base WAR: 0.8

Though the Mariners have eight different guys with double-digit home runs, they lack a big bopper. Alonso being that guy is a fun idea, but one assumes the Mariners will give incumbent first baseman Ty France a shot to redeem what’s been a down year.

6. San Diego Padres

First Base Stats: 8 HR, 43 RBI, .204 AVG, .292 OBP, .343 SLG

First Base WAR: 0.6

The Padres have gotten fewer home runs from first base than any other team, so they’re a dream fit for Alonso in that regard. But would they turn Jake Cronenworth into a utility man to accommodate him? Or plan to use Alonso at DH? These are tricky questions.

5. Los Angeles Angels

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C.J. CronLeslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

First Base Stats: 16 HR, 64 RBI, .239 AVG, .290 OBP, .385 SLG

First Base WAR: Minus-0.3

It’s a shame what happened with Jared Walsh, and trade newcomer C.J. Cron hasn’t been much of a solution. He has a .563 OPS and one homer in 14 games.

It thus stands to reason that first base will be a priority for the Angels this winter. And assuming he doesn’t lose his job to, say, David Stearns, it might help if Billy Eppler is still the Mets’ general manager. He ran the Angels for six years between 2015 and 2020.

Of course, finding help at first base won’t quite be the Angels’ top priority this winter. That’ll be re-signing Shohei Ohtani, which is going to cost hundreds of millions of dollars. With or without him, though, the fit for Alonso will be there.

Trade Proposal: Los Angeles Angels get 1B Pete Alonso, New York Mets get RHP Caden Dana, OF Nelson Rada and SS Denver Guzman

Per MLB.com’s rankings, represented here are the Angels’ No. 3 (Dana), No. 4 (Rada) and No. 7 (Guzman) prospects. When spelled out like that, it sounds like a big enough haul.

The catch is that Angels’ system was one of the worst in baseball even before multiple prospects went out the door in what looks like an ill-fated buying spree before the deadline. The Mets should be able to do better if they do shop Alonso this winter.

4. Baltimore Orioles

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Ryan MountcastleVaughn Ridley/Getty Images

First Base Stats: 24 HR, 80 RBI, .263 AVG, .303 OBP, .474 SLG

First Base WAR: 2.0

Nothing against Ryan Mountcastle. He’s a perfectly fine player with a respectable power supply.

Yet neither Mountcastle nor platoon partner (a probably overachieving Ryan O’Hearn) is the kind of guy who should stand in the way of an upgrade like Alonso. And if ever there was a time for the Orioles to be so bold as to pursue such an upgrade, it should be in the wake of a season that’s trending toward the AL East championship.

Will the Orioles need Alonso? Not really. Or at least, not as much as they’ll need starting pitching. But since he would elevate their already good offense into a great one, perhaps they could come down on the side of overkill being underrated.

Trade Proposal: Baltimore Orioles get 1B Pete Alonso; New York Mets get INF Joey Ortiz

Though MLB.com only has Ortiz ranked as the Orioles’ No. 5 prospect, their system is the best there is and Ortiz himself ranks No. 54 out of all prospects. And since they have a crowded infield, the Orioles being willing to spare him isn’t unthinkable.

If anything, more unthinkable is the Orioles being willing to entertain a big-money extension for Alonso. The club should have money to spend, but the ultra-low payrolls it’s had in each of the last five years raise doubts about whether it will.

3. Minnesota Twins

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Alex KirilloffBrace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

First Base Stats: 17 HR, 62 RBI, .266 AVG, .361 OBP, .459 SLG

First Base WAR: 1.3

The Twins arguably already have their first baseman of the future in the person of Alex Kirrilloff. In 51 games at the position, the former top prospect has put up a solid .814 OPS.

Alas, it was all too familiar when Kirilloff landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain on July 30. He’s missed a lot of time with injuries during his still-young career, which raises the question of how much faith the Twins should have in him as a building block.

Otherwise, this is a generally good team that nonetheless needs a big bat right now. This need will only become stronger once Joey Gallo, who co-leads the Twins with 20 home runs, files for free agency this winter.

Trade Proposal: Minnesota Twins get 1B Pete Alonso; New York Mets get OF Emmanuel Rodriguez

Both B/R’s Joel Reuter (No. 57) and MLB.com (No. 52) have Rodriguez ranked as one of baseball’s 60 best prospects. The 5’10”, 210-pounder is mostly known for his power, though he’s also shown on-base acumen in racking up a .408 OBP in the minors.

As to whether the Twins would pony up to extend Alonso, it’s not as inconceivable as it would have been a couple years ago. Their deals with Carlos Correa signal an increased appetite for spending, and there will be some money coming off the books this winter.

2. Chicago Cubs

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Cody BellingerDustin Satloff/Getty Images

First Base Stats: 14 HR, 60 RBI, .248 AVG, .307 OBP, .409 SLG

First Base WAR: Minus-0.1

It’s wild to think that Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer loomed large in the Cubs’ plans for first base at the start of the year. They’re both gone now by way of the ol’ DFA.

Erstwhile NL MVP Cody Bellinger has since helped stabilize things at the cold corner, starting there 12 times over a 29-game span since July 16 in which he’s produced a 1.013 OPS. But unless the Cubs talk him into his mutual option for 2024, he’ll be a free agent this winter.

The Cubs should be in the market for some thump anyway. They have their share of 20-odd homer guys, but no truly big boppers. Alonso would fit the bill, and any efforts to extend him would be aided by Bellinger’s and Marcus Stroman’s salaries coming free.

Trade Proposal: Chicago Cubs get 1B Pete Alonso; New York Mets get OF Owen Caissie and 1B Matt Mervis

No matter how thin on hitters the upcoming market will be, the Mets probably aren’t prying loose Pete Crow-Armstrong (who they originally drafted in 2020) or Cade Horton in a trade with the Cubs. A package of Caissie and Mervis, however, would hardly constitute a swindle.

Mainly by way of big-time power potential, the former is MLB.com’s No. 68 prospect. The latter has a .949 career OPS at the Triple-A level and would be a candidate to immediately step into Alonso’s shoes.

1. San Francisco Giants

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LaMonte Wade Jr.G Fiume/Getty Images

First Base Stats: 15 HR, 44 RBI, .275 AVG, .364 OBP, .426 SLG

First Base WAR: 2.5

The tricky part here is that LaMonte Wade Jr. is good. He’s started 79 of the Giants’ 121 games at first base and gotten on base at a .384 clip.

Wade isn’t a star, however, and watching the Giants repeatedly try and repeatedly fail to attract stars to the Bay Area is the stuff of extreme cringe. They whiffed on Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, Arson Aaron Judge and had a deal with Carlos Correa fall through.

He doesn’t have no-trade protection, so there’s no way Alonso could also spurn the Giants if they worked out a deal with the Mets. And with only Logan Webb guaranteed to be on their books after 2025, they would hypothetically have the leeway to give him an agreeable deal.

Trade Proposal: San Francisco Giants get 1B Pete Alonso; New York Mets get LHP Carson Whisenhunt and OF Grant McCray

It’s a reach to think the Mets could land Kyle Harrison or Marco Luciano, but Whisenhunt would be a fair compromise as a centerpiece. He’s Reuter’s No. 70 prospect and a fast riser who’s posted a 2.45 ERA across three minor league levels.

Though not yet a top-100 guy, McCray has legit upside courtesy of his plus-plus speed and above average power. As such, this would be an appropriately large haul for the Mets to extract from a team with a desperate need.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.