A-level results reflect inequalities across England after challenging years

Students have today been awarded their A-level and level 3 technical or vocational qualification results, and grades are now beginning to resemble their pre-pandemic status. In 2023, 26.5% of A-level entries in England were awarded top grades, compared with 25.2% in 2019, and down from 35.9% in 2022. About three-quarters of A-level entries were awarded grade C or above in 2019 and 2023, compared with 82% last year. Marginally more entries were awarded U and E grades in 2023 than in 2019.

There is debate as to whether it is too soon to return to pre-pandemic grading in England. However, although universities and employers will need to be mindful of the grading approaches taken between years, 2023 finishers will largely be competing for higher education places against other students from 2023. Moreover, future cohorts and their teachers will benefit from the return of predictability in the examination and grading process.

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None of that is to understate the challenges faced by this year’s cohort. Their GCSE years were disrupted by school closures, and their GCSE grades were teacher assessed, meaning most will not have sat a public exam prior to this summer. Furthermore, student absences were rife, with added disruption stemming from industrial action as unions strove to reach a pay deal.

These issues appear to have had unequal impacts on different students. In particular, the proportion achieving top grades in parts of northern England have declined relative to 2019, whereas the rate in other regions, notably London, has increased. As was the case last year, the return to exams relative to teacher assessments appears to have benefited male students across most subjects. In particular, the female lead in the proportion achieving top grades in maths and physics in 2022 appears to have reversed. Independent schools had one of the largest drops since last year, but their proportion achieving top grades since 2019 increased the most. In contrast, the proportion achieving top A-level grades in further education establishments has decreased since 2019.

We cannot say to what extent this variation represents differences in the impacts of school closures and absences, the suitability of post-16 course choices based on inflated 2021 GCSE results, or the year-on-year variation we might expect to see anyway. Most likely it is a combination of all three.

Many will now be considering their options for future study, or thinking about employment. University applications are marginally down this year compared with last, despite a larger number of 18-year-olds in the population, but competition for the most selective universities remains high.

The second cohort of students also this year completed T-level courses, the government’s new vocational study programme. The vast majority who finished their course received a pass grade and will have gained valuable skills for future study or employment. However, dropout rates appear high and there is debate around how suitable T-levels are for all students, with the qualifications being more demanding than existing alternatives. The government is poised to defund many of the alternative qualifications, a risky manoeuvre given these issues.

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Students and their teachers should be commended for their efforts after a uniquely challenging few years. However, we should not lose sight of the problems facing future cohorts. There have been positive funding settlements recently, but these must be considered against the real-term cuts the sector has faced over the last decade. Correspondingly, teacher recruitment and retention are big issues for many colleges, and EPI research shows that the grades of disadvantaged students have fallen further behind those of their peers over the course of the pandemic. Today’s results cannot yet tell us whether this persisted into 2023. However, with an election looming, supporting the most vulnerable and disadvantaged students needs to remain a priority for all parties, if all students are to benefit from the opportunities of a world class education system.

Sam Tuckett is associate director at the Education Policy Institute