Gausman’s Cy Young candidacy under microscope

TORONTO — Even at the height of a Cy Young race, there are going to be some potholes. 

Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman hit one in Wednesday night’s 9-4 loss to the Phillies at Rogers Centre, a rare dud in a season that’s been otherwise brilliant. Philadelphia hung seven runs on Gausman, five earned, and pulled away late with an offense that just kept pounding away.

“I wasn’t my normal self tonight,” Gausman said. “I was pretty sporadic around the zone and that definitely didn’t help. There were too many 3-2 counts. It’s one thing that’s kind of been happening in this second half, walking too many guys and long innings.”

The loss won’t sink the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card race, where they’re still one game up on the Mariners for the final spot, and it won’t sink Gausman in the Cy Young race, but as this season starts to run out of days, the margin for error grows thinner. Gausman recently ranked second in MLB.com’s Cy Young poll behind only Gerrit Cole of the Yankees, but he’ll need a strong second half after carrying a heavy load.

“We leaned on him pretty heavily for a while there with pitch counts and innings,” said manager John Schneider. “We have a handful of really good pitchers, but having a dude who you can really rely on most nights is what makes you consistent as a staff. It sets up bullpens the right way and things like that. He’s been as valuable as anyone.”

On the surface, so many of Gausman’s numbers point in that direction. Even with Wednesday’s stumble, Gausman ranks ninth in the AL with a 3.24 ERA and his 144 1/3 innings rank eighth, so there’s no worry that his workload won’t be enough.

Where Gausman really stars, though, is with strikeouts. His 187 strikeouts and 11.7 K/9 rate are both the best in the American League. Pair that with an impressive walk rate (2.31 BB/9, 9th) and you have a pitcher who controls games extremely well and limits big innings. 

A start like Wednesday’s is about as bad as it gets with Gausman, which is a compliment in its own, unwelcome way. 

Going deeper: What the numbers saySo, John Schneider, should your ace be in the Cy Young Award conversation?

“No doubt,” Schneider said. “When you look at everything he brings — then all sorts of different metrics you look at for just what he does minus anything that happens behind him after the ball’s in play — he’s one of the best in the game. I would take him any day of the week.”

There’s something to those “metrics” Schneider mentions, starting with FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching).

The beauty of FIP is:It focuses solely on the events that a pitcher has the most control over: Strikeouts, walks, hit batters and home runs. What happens on ground balls or fly balls, good and bad luck included, is not factored in.

The problem with FIP is:By ignoring what happens on balls put in play, FIP ignores a major factor. Some pitchers force weak contact. Some pitchers give up a laser show. FIP doesn’t consider how hard or dangerous the contact is on balls in play, but remember: analytics like this don’t exist to give us a perfect answer, they just exist to give us a better one.

Gausman, according to FIP (entering Wednesday):Last season, Gausman ranked 11th among qualified AL starters with a 3.35 ERA, but first in FIP (2.38). This season, he’s right back at the top of the FIP leaderboard with a 2.72.

The BABIP battleLast season, Gausman’s .363 BABIP against cost him a significant number of Cy Young votes. There’s no way around that. It wasn’t just bad luck, it was the second-highest BABIP by a qualified MLB starter since 1920. Yes, over a century.

Gausman’s BABIP has “improved” to .334 this season, which still ranks as the highest among all qualified AL starters. With this, you can see how FIP — which eliminates batted-ball luck — is so much kinder to Gausman than his ERA.

The race the rest of the wayNo one is running away with this, like Shohei Ohtani likely will with the MVP Award, so there’s an opening for someone to get hot. Gausman is better known for his hot starts than big finishes, but all eyes will be on the Blue Jays’ ace in this Wild Card race, and he’ll have every opportunity to swing a few more votes his way than the one (1) he received a year ago.