Fantasy Baseball Trade Deadline Tracker: Paul Sewald to Diamondbacks, but the real winner is Andres Muñoz

The trade deadline (Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, to be exact) is quickly approaching, and the biggest chips are flying off the board.

What may be the biggest of all is Max Scherzer following Jacob deGrom to Texas, effectively to replace him as the team’s ace. For good measure, though, they also acquired Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals Sunday. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks became the latest team to add a closer Monday, joining the Marlins and Blue Jays.

You’ll find all my reactions to the latest deadline deals here.

Leaving aside the shortened 2020 campaign, Candelario is having a career season, but in a way that’s not totally backed up by the data. Still, the Nationals were able to cash in, landing two interesting but flawed prospects in pitcher D.J. Herz and shortstop Kevin Made. The Cubs should have a pretty good idea what they’re getting seeing as they’re the ones who first brought Candelario to the majors in 2017. He’s a disciplined hitter whose power manifests more as doubles than home runs. Fittingly, he fares better in points leagues, ranking ninth at third base in those formats compared to 15th in 5×5. He’s likely to slip some from there, but not because he’s joining the Cubs. Meanwhile, you can forget about Patrick Wisdom having a Fantasy impact the rest of the way.

Paul Sewald traded to Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have driven us crazy with their ninth-inning choices this year, cycling between Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro, Scott McGough and Kevin Ginkel for save chances with little patience for any missteps along the way. Sewald should help to stabilize things, serving as the true closer he’s been for the Mariners since the middle of last season. His stock holds steady with this move, maybe ticking up slightly since there are fewer threats to his role.

What I mean by that is there’s no Andres Munoz in Arizona. The right-hander is the clear winner of this deal for Fantasy Baseball purposes. He’s a bat-misser extraordinaire with a fastball that peaks at 103 mph, and many thought he was poised to overtake Sewald this year if not for a shoulder strain early on. It’s possible manager Scott Servais goes back to mixing and matching, as he did before settling on Sewald last year, but I suspect the Mariners only saw fit to move Sewald because they had Munoz waiting in the wings.

As for what the Mariners get back, Josh Rojas is a known quantity with little Fantasy appeal. Dominic Canzone and Ryan Bliss have both come out of nowhere to put up impressive numbers in the upper levels of the Diamondbacks system, which are known to be hitter-friendly. Both have long odds to becoming everyday big-leaguers, probably, but the 25-year-old Canzone had recently stepped into a part-time role for the Diamondbacks and could do the same for the Mariners.

Whenever the Rays make a head-scratcher of move, it’s reasonable to wonder what they know that the rest of us don’t (with Zach Eflin’s franchise record contract this offseason being the latest example). By the looks of this deal, they gave up an exceptional minor-league hitting talent for an overachieving starting pitcher who we’ve long known to be a back-end innings-eater. It’s true that Civale has pitched to a 2.34 ERA this year, but his 6.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 are both career-worsts. He’s never been much of a bat-misser, and while he’s done a good job avoiding the barrel so far, that’s not the stickiest metric. It’s only been good for a 3.67 xERA as it is, and other ERA estimators like xFIP (4.58) and SIERA (4.69) aren’t any kinder. Regression was likely coming for Civale either way, but he’ll at least have a better chance of collecting wins for the Rays.

What makes this trade really wild is the caliber of prospect going to the Guardians. While it’s true Manzardo has had a down year at Triple-A, the underlying metrics paint a more promising picture, revealing high exit velocities and even higher contact rates. And lest you think that’s a bunch of hocus pocus, Manzardo dominated the previous two levels last year with a .327 batting average, 22 home runs and a 1.043 OPS. The Rays never give their prospects an easy path, so the 23-year-old is probably better off with his new organization, profiling for an everyday job as soon as next year. It’s just weird that the Rays would choose to use this trade chip in this way.

It was a good ride for Cron, but the fact is that Coors Field was the source of his strength, at least with regard to him being a fixture in Fantasy. He’s a career .307 hitter with a .977 OPS there compared to .251 and .758 everywhere else. In fact, he actually got his start with the Angels in 2014, and while he put up decent numbers there in four seasons, they weren’t enough to make him a player of real consequence. And seeing as he bats right-handed and has minimal on-base skills, it’s not even certain he’ll get everyday at-bats, particularly once Brandon Drury and/or Anthony Rendon are healthy.

The move might be even worse for Grichuk. He had finally begun to take to his hitter-friendly home, batting .350 (21 for 60) with six home runs in July, but he, like Cron, was more of a one-note role player before arriving in Colorado. And once Mike Trout is off the IL, Grichuk may have to settle for the lesser half of a platoon with Mickey Moniak. If there’s a silver lining to this deal, it’s that Cron’s and Grichuk’s departure from Colorado should end the uncertainty over Nolan Jones’ playing time as well as creating more opportunities for Michael Toglia and Elehuris Montero, not that either is thought to have significant upside.

Jordan Montgomery traded to Rangers

Montgomery has been his usual steady-but-unspectacular self since coming over to the Cardinals when they were buyers at last year’s deadline, but it hasn’t translated as well to their losing ways this year, hence the 6-9 record. Going to an offensive juggernaut like the Rangers should help with run support at least, and since wins are the single most valuable pitching statistic in most scoring formats, that’s reason to elevate him in Fantasy. It helps that he’s done a better job working deep into games this year, going six-plus innings in eight of his last nine starts.

There is the question of who gets bumped from the Rangers rotation with Montgomery and Max Scherzer now in the fold. Nathan Eovaldi (forearm) is on the IL for at least the next couple weeks, and I’m guessing Dane Dunning would fit better in the bullpen than, say, Martin Perez. Fantasy Baseballers might prefer it the other way, though, even with Dunning showing signs of fading.

The Blue Jays needed some late-inning relief help after recently losing closer Joran Romano to back inflammation, and they landed one of the most coveted right-handers on the market in Hicks. The 26-year-old has always gotten outsized attention as a closer candidate because he throws exceptionally hard, his fastball peaking at 103 mph, but his numbers are more pedestrian than you’d think considering. Presumably, he’ll be the one filling in for Romano just because he has more closing experience than, say, Erik Swanson, but he’s no threat to keep the role once Romano is healthy and may actually lose some Fantasy value with this deal. Left-hander JoJo Romero got the first save in Hicks’ absence Sunday, but Giovanny Gallegos has closing experience as well. Expect the Cardinals to mix and match until Ryan Helsley (forearm) is set to return.

Max Scherzer traded to Rangers

The Rangers pitching staff has held its own despite losing ace Jacob deGrom to Tommy John surgery, but with Nathan Eovaldi wearing down and Dane Dunning beginning to show cracks, they needed something more durable and dependable. Do those words still accurately describe Scherzer at age 39? It’s easy to nitpick given his track record and contract, but even if the decline has begun to set in, he fits that description better than anyone else in the Rangers rotation.

The strikeouts have begun to trend up at least. Over his past eight starts, he has 10.8 K/9 but also a modest 3.53 ERA thanks to 13 home runs during that stretch. The long ball has been his biggest issue this year, and it’s not likely to get any better at his new home. He will have the best offense in baseball backing him now, but it’s not like wins have been a problem to this point, judging by his 9-4 record. His stock remains the same, more or less.

How does this move change the rotation picture for the Rangers and Mets? Dunning has some relief experience and may be better served as a long man. It would effectively destroy his Fantasy Baseball value, but any one injury would likely welcome him back into the rotation. While the Mets have some interesting up-and-coming arms, the rotation opening would likely be filled by either David Peterson or Tylor Megill, both of whom are of minimal interest.

As much as can be said for any organization, the Dodgers know what they’re doing, so the very fact they traded for Lynn serves as validation for a Fantasy writer who has continued to hold out hope during a career-worst season, one that includes a 16-strikeout effort, a one-hit, 11-strikeout effort and, hmm … not much else. Even I must admit I had mostly soured on Lynn after seeing him allow 13 earned runs over 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts, but this trade does rekindle mild optimism. It’s been difficult to pinpoint what exactly has gone wrong for Lynn this year. Sure, he’s 36, but usually age-related declined is reflected in the stuff itself. Lynn has the best swinging-strike rate of his career, and his 26.9 percent strikeout rate ranks 15th among qualifiers, ahead of Shane McClanahan and Corbin Burnes.

Maybe the Dodgers know something. Maybe they’ve identified some tweak that could click everything back into place. Or maybe just removing Lynn from a stale environment and inserting him into a playoff race will ignite his competitive fire. In any case, he’s deserving of a little more patience in Fantasy.

The Marlins were thought to be on the verge of making a closer change anyway, given A.J. Puk’s recent struggles. Robertson brings experience and stability to the role and should claim it without much drama. My one hesitation is that both Puk and the Marlins’ other high-leverage arm, Tanner Scott, throw left-handed, which might encourage certain other clubs to deploy the right-handed Robertson in a more situation fashion. But manager Skip Schumaker has held to traditional bullpen roles for the most part, and it’s hard to imagine him stopping now.

The biggest question is what the Mets now do with the ninth-inning role. Adam Ottavino has been their backup closer dating back to last year, but he’s an impending free agent, too, which could mean he’s following Robertson out the door. Left-hander Brooks Raley got the save Thursday and might be the better choice if you have to make one.

Santana is a shell of the player he once was, but he is having his best season in four years and now gets a chance to continue it for a contender. American Family Field is the most hitter-friendly park he’s even had the pleasure of calling home, so this move opens the door for even better numbers moving forward. He’s not a priority pickup by any means, but particularly in leagues that reward walks, he has some fringe appeal. You do have to wonder what his arrival means for Rowdy Tellez, who’s currently sidelined by a lacerated finger but has had a disappointing season so far. The DH spot allows the Brewers to field both, if they so choose.

With the Angels committed to one last gasp with Ohtani, they needed a pitcher to pair with him at the top of their rotation. They landed one of the best on the market in Giolito, who has followed up a disappointing 2022 with a fine performance this year. Of course, the improvement is mostly confined to his ERA. He hasn’t returned to being the bat-misser he was pre-2022, and most ERA estimators say he’s overperforming as a result.

Nonetheless, there isn’t much reason to believe a move to the Angels will impact his fate. On the one hand, he never seemed particularly fond of pitching at Guaranteed Rate Field, putting together a career 4.60 ERA there compared to 3.94 everywhere else. On the other, he’s joining a team that tends to stick with a six-man rotation to build in enough rest for Ohtani. Unless the Angels make an exception for Giolito, keeping him on regular rest, he may not have many two-start weeks ahead of him.

The White Sox are also giving up reliever Reynaldo Lopez in the deal, but for a couple rentals, the prospect return is strong. Edgar Quero is a consensus top-100 guy as a bat-first catcher who was hurried to Double-A, holding his own there at age 20. Ky Bush is a big left-hander and former second-round pick who could turn into a rotation piece if he can come up with something that pairs well with his slider.

The Dodgers have done well for having Miguel Rojas (with a pinch of Mookie Betts) as their shortstop so far, but that changes with the acquisition of Rosario, a 27-year-old who was regarded as a first-division regular as recently as a year ago. He’s been stuck in the doldrums this year, but he’s always been a better second-half performer. Surely no one will be surprised if this change of scenery turns him into a .300 hitter with a pretty good stolen base total down the stretch.

Curiously, the Guardians acquired Syndergaard in the deal, which means they’re not waving the white flag yet. It’s an exchange of one expiring contract for another, so presumably they think Syndergaard will be of some use down the stretch. He’s been out since early June with a blister but is nearing a return. It’s just hard to imagine he has anything left after the way his past two seasons have gone. Perhaps they see it as a worthy gamble given all of their young shortstops on the verge of breaking through. Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman are already on the major-league roster while Brayan Rocchio offers a Rosario-like skill set down at Triple-A.