Pac-12 emergency arrives as Colorado considers move to Big 12

Is this it? Is this the end of the Pac-12? The next 24 hours could be a very wild ride in the conference and in all of college sports.

Our friends at Buffaloes Wire have picked up on the reports from Wednesday afternoon in which the University of Colorado will consider a possible move to the Big 12 Conference at a meeting scheduled for Thursday. Plenty of people close to the situation think the Buffs are pretty much out the door at this point, though that view is not unanimous.

There are a lot of interesting angles to this story, and while we can’t do a deep-dive discussion of all of the various components to this mess, we can at least give you a brief awareness of the scope and reach of this development.

Let’s start by simply noting that over the past weekend, we mentioned that Colorado athletic director Rick George quickly jetted out of Pac-12 media day instead of sticking around for the full day’s proceedings. It might have seemed innocuous to some, but it certainly created an impression and caught some people off guard.

It certainly did not seem like the action a Pac-12 athletic director would take if he was happy about his school’s situation within the conference. It might be that the event was more significant than we knew at the time.

Let’s now dive into this existential crisis for the Pac-12, whose very existence is now legitimately up in the air:

FIRST THINGS FIRST

As you process all of this — there’s a lot to go through — start here: It doesn’t seem that Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark made a stealth move. It’s more that Colorado had an attitude of wanting to stay in the Pac-12, but that its attitude and position changed over the past week.

Buffaloes Wire wrote:

“Colorado chancellor Phil DiStefano told The Denver Post last week that the ‘goal’ was to stay Pac-12 members. But with the Pac-12 still yet to announce a media rights deal, the Buffs are now primed to join the Big 12.”

Rick George’s abrupt exit from Pac-12 media day certainly lends credence to the belief that Colorado was expecting something substantial on the media rights front. When Kliavkoff failed to provide that level of clarity, it really seemed to mark a turning point. We might look back at that Friday presser from Kliavkoff as being a seismic moment in college sports history.

PAC-12 HUBRIS

Dec 3, 2021; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff reacts during the 2021 Pac-12 Championship Game at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Pac-12 sources who talked to Jon Wilner were reportedly “super confident” about a Pac-12 media rights deal — not only that it would get done, but that it would be a really good deal which would keep the Pac-12 together.

Sources told John Canzano “all the schools are together.”

Conference sources told ESPN’s Heather Dinich that the conference’s “patience is about to pay off,” as though the battle had already been won and the big hurdles had already been surmounted.

If the Pac-12 doesn’t rescue this situation, it’s an indication of conference leaders and power brokers being woefully out of touch and — far worse — just plain incompetent at executing a plan to get a deal to secure the future of the league. The presidents hired Kliavkoff, but they also participated in a lot of meetings and continuously told Kliavkoff what they wanted. They certainly contributed to this extended process instead of shepherding it to a quicker and more decisive (and most of all, positive) conclusion.

WAITING FOR THE BIG BREAKMar 29, 2019; Albany , NY, USA; ESPN reporter Holly Rowe prior to the game between the UCLA Bruins and the UConn Huskies in the semifinals of the Albany regional in the women’s 2019 NCAA Tournament at the Times Union Center. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

If the Pac-12 was waiting for ESPN to announce an equity-share agreement with Comcast, Apple, Amazon, or Google, and then link up with ESPN for linear and digital broadcast deals that would have met a desired price point, why couldn’t — and didn’t — George Kliavkoff make that point clearer at Pac-12 media day?

On a related note, if this purported Pac-12 media deal was going to be so good, what was preventing Kliavkoff and the conference from moving forward with signing the grant of rights, finalizing the deal, and then inviting San Diego State and SMU?

If — to use a football metaphor — the Pac-12 and ESPN were at the 2-yard line, why couldn’t they have announced an agreement in principle at Pac-12 media day and then finalized the last details later, once ESPN completed a back-channel deal with an equity partner? Kliavkoff couldn’t divulge every last detail, but again, he certainly needed to give the public and — more importantly — his member schools more meat on the bone. He really shied away from doing that on Friday, and Colorado very understandably did not take it well, by all accounts.

LANDING THE PLANEDec 3, 2021; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff speaks before the 2021 Pac-12 Championship Game between the Oregon Ducks and the Utah Utes at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The image we kept using for the Pac-12 media rights deal: Land the plane, George. Land the plane. The more all of this remained up in the air, the more an unexpected plot twist could shatter everything and put the Pac-12 on life support.

We are almost there. Dragging out the process never came across as an advantage; it seemed like an invitation to chaos and possible disaster.

SAN DIEGO STATEApr 3, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; San Diego State Aztecs guard Adam Seiko (2) looks on from the bench against the Connecticut Huskies during the second half in the national championship game of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego State wanted to leave the Mountain West. That’s a fact. Otherwise, that June 13 letter never gets published and sent.

The Pac-12 should have done whatever it reasonably could to on-board the Aztecs by the June 30 deadline. If SDSU was on the hook for $16.5 million in exit penalties, the Pac-12 could have covered a significant chunk of the cost as a sweetener/carrot for the Aztecs.

Just exactly why did that not happen?

SDSU VALUEDec 4, 2021; Carson, CA, USA; San Diego State Aztecs quarterback Jordon Brookshire (4) runs the ball against the Utah State Aggies during the first half in the Mountain West Conference championship game at Dignity Health Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego State would have given the Pac-12 an anchor in Southern California. SDSU and SMU would have given the Pac-12 two valuable markets and a lot of added football game inventory to beef up the price of a potential media rights deal.

It never really made sense that the Pac-12 would not bring aboard SDSU for next year. Bringing the Aztecs in would generate extra revenue. Schools would still have a need to travel to Southern California to recruit and play games. Pac-12 sources told John Canzano they were considering only SDSU and SMU, not Fresno State or Boise State or UNLV.

So, if all this was true, why did the Pac-12 not land the plane and get SDSU into the conference by June 30? The only really good explanation given was that the 10 Pac-12 schools would split 2024 TV revenue among each other, thereby getting a slightly bigger cut and offsetting the deficit created by the Comcast overpayment scandal. Okay, that made a certain amount of sense, but it didn’t make enough sense to override the need to get San Diego State into the Pac-12 as soon as possible.

PAYING SAN DIEGO STATE’S EXIT FEE

Apr 1, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; San Diego State Aztecs forward Aguek Arop (33) celebrates with fans after their win against the Florida Atlantic Owls in the semifinals of the Final Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Does anyone really think that if the Pac-12 paid a significant percentage of San Diego State’s exit fee but then reallocated a percentage of media rights income for 2024 and 2025 to the 10 previously existing Pac-12 members, the Aztecs would have said no?

Rutgers and Maryland, upon entering the Big Ten, didn’t get the same full membership share of Ohio State, Michigan, and the other longstanding members of the conference. San Diego State surely wouldn’t have expected a sweetheart deal in which it got the same cut as the existing 10 members.

Getting SDSU inside the conference was the first priority. Covering the exit fee but then structuring “repayment” in the form of reduced revenue shares seemed like a rather obvious work-around. Why did this not happen?

PAC-12 CEO GROUP

Jul 29, 2022; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans coach Lincoln Riley speaks during Pac-12 Media Day at Novo Theater. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

George Kliavkoff didn’t do his job this past Friday at Pac-12 media day, but he’s not the only one who deserves blame for this situation. The presidents kept meeting and talking, meeting and talking, meeting and talking … but without firming up a deal. There’s only so long that kind of process and pattern can continue until one member — Colorado — gets frustrated and leaves the room.

The Pac-12 presidents also didn’t mobilize to terminate Larry Scott in 2018, when bad decisions set in motion the series of events which led to USC’s exit in 2022.

The commish is at fault. So are the presidents and chancellors. They have not shown good political instincts, and they have often failed to handle their commissioners properly — sometimes by being too restrictive, other times by not moving quickly to restrain them.

CRISIS PLAN

Oct 13, 2021; San Francisco, CA, USA; Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff speaks to the media during the Pac-12 men’s basketball media day. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

What should George Kliavkoff do? Invite San Diego State and SMU as soon as humanly possible. Pay their exit fees. Do whatever it takes. Give Colorado the terms of a deal which includes the Aztecs and Mustangs.

What should Kliavkoff not do? Tell Colorado to trust him. The time has passed for assurances. The time has come for decisive action.

IF COLORADO LEAVES, WHAT THEN?

Pay cuts and furloughs at the University of Arizona will last through June 30, 2021.University of Arizona

All eyes are on Tempe and Tucson. If the Arizona schools follow Colorado out the door, the Pac-12 is likely to die. Kliavkoff has a lot of phone calls to make. Getting Arizona State and Arizona on the horn is part of his very frantic 24-hour crisis period.

IF COLORADO LEAVES, WHERE DOES THE PAC-12 GET A 12TH SCHOOL?

Oct 13, 2021; San Francisco, CA, USA; Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff speaks to the media during the Pac-12 men’s basketball media day. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

San Diego State comes in. SMU comes aboard as school No. 11. What about school No. 12? The Pac-12 didn’t seem too keen on UNLV, Fresno State, or Boise State. Maybe UNLV — given the conference’s location in Las Vegas — is the most reasonable stopgap, but that’s a definite step down from Colorado. It certainly doesn’t seem like a good fit.

Maybe getting Gonzaga as a basketball-only member is the play here. The Big 12 has not yet invited the Zags.

PAC-12 DEATH

Sep 1, 2022; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Arizona State Sun Devil quarterback Emory Jones lines up to hike the ball against the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Sun Devil Stadium.

If the Arizona schools leave and the Pac-12 dies, a few scenarios seem more likely than others. The main story, though, is that we would have another round of significant conference realignment, since seven schools (the Oregon schools, the Washington schools, the Bay Area schools, and Utah) would all need to find new homes. (The Arizona schools and Colorado would already be gone.)

WASHINGTON STATE AND OREGON STATE

Oct 9, 2021; Pullman, Washington, USA; Washington State Cougars running back Deon McIntosh (3) is caught from behind by Oregon State Beavers linebacker Omar Speights (36) in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. The Cougars won 31-24. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports

Washington State and Oregon State would likely go to the Mountain West. There just wouldn’t be any other likely landing spot for these two schools.

OREGON AND WASHINGTON

Nov 6, 2021; Seattle, Washington, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Travis Dye (26) breaks a tackle attempt by Washington Huskies linebacker Zion Tupuola-Fetui (58) during the fourth quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The Big Ten just did say (via commissioner Tony Petitti at Big Ten media days on Wednesday) that it doesn’t foresee expansion. However, the Pac-12’s death might make expansion inevitable and ultimately unchosen. Expansion would choose the Big Ten as opposed to the Big Ten choosing expansion.

Would Oregon and Washington go to the Big Ten or the Big 12? It’s hard to predict how that would work out. Why? Check the next pair of teams:

STANFORD AND CAL

November 27, 2020; Berkeley, California, USA; California Golden Bears place kicker Dario Longhetto (30) has his point-after-touchdown blocked by the Stanford Cardinal during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Right after USC left for the Big Ten last summer (the announcement of the move, of course, not the formal transition — that occurs next year), it seemed that Oregon and Washington had the big football TV brands, and that the Big Ten would want them. Not necessarily.

The Big Ten presidents and chancellors would love to be associated with two more academic heavyweights, Stanford and Cal. Plus, the Bay Area TV markets are viewed as more attractive than Portland and Seattle. The Big Ten might add all four schools — Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal — but the Bay Area schools are probably first in line, not second.

UTAH

Jul 21, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Utah Utes coach Kyle Whittingham during Pac-12 Media Day at Resorts World Las Vegas. tMandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

If Stanford and Cal do head to the Big Ten, it would seem that either the Big Ten looks at Oregon and Washington next or makes a play for North Carolina, Duke, and/or Virginia before it goes to Utah. This doesn’t mean Utah has no chance, only that it would be toward the back of the line, not the front.

BIG 12 ADDITION

Jul 13, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark talks with the media during the Big 12 Media Day at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Colorado joining the Big 12 in 2024 would leave the Big 12 with 13 schools. That means at least a 14th school if not 15 and 16 would also join.

There would be several realignment dominoes to fall in the event of a Colorado exit for the Big 12, even if the Pac-12 survives in a smaller form.

The Big 12 will grab at least one school if not three. The Pac-12 would have to add at least one school to get 10, and it would probably want to add three to get 12. If the Arizona schools bolt, of course, the Pac-12 would be on its deathbed and in need of a miracle cure.

UCONN TO THE BIG 12

Apr 3, 2023; Houston, TX, USA; San Diego State Aztecs guard Lamont Butler (5) shoots the ball past Connecticut Huskies forward Adama Sanogo (21) during the second half in the national championship game of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

UConn has been one school linked to lots of Big 12 rumors. That’s one option for the conference to consider. UConn fans probably want to stay in the Big East, given how the return to the conference was followed by yet another college basketball national championship.

MEMPHIS TO THE BIG 12

Memphis Tigers guard Earl Timberlake looks to pass the ball as Boise State Broncos center Lukas Milner defends during their first round NCAA Tournament matchup on Thursday, March 17, 2022 at the Moda Center in Portland, Ore.

Memphis would love the Big 12. The question is if the Big 12 loves Memphis enough to make the invitation?

BOISE STATE TO THE BIG 12

Sep 3, 2022; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Boise State Broncos quarterback Taylen Green (10) throws the ball during the second half against the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Boise State would be ecstatic about a move to the Big 12. The Broncos would love to have a regular Big 12 rivalry with BYU.

FRESNO STATE

Dec 17, 2022; Inglewood, CA, USA; Washington State Cougars quarterback Cameron Ward (1) scrambles in the end zone as he is pressured by defensive back Evan WIlliams (32) in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

If the Pac-12 dies, Fresno State probably stays in the Mountain West, but if the Pac-12 survives in a diminished capacity, maybe Fresno State would have a slight chance of joining an expanded Big 12, especially if the Big 12 adds a 14th school east of the Rocky Mountains. The Big 12 could then consider having Boise and Fresno as its 15th and 16th schools to provide geographical balance. We’re not saying it’s likely, but it could enter the discussion to some degree.

BOTTOM LINE

Jul 27, 2021; Hollywood, CA, USA; PAC-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff speaks to the media during the Pac-12 football Media Day at the W Hollywood. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

George Kliavkoff and the Pac-12 CEO Group really blew it … unless they have an 11th-hour rescue plan which can save themselves.

Story originally appeared on Trojans Wire