ESPN: What chance does J.J. McCarthy have at being the No. 1 overall pick in 2024?

There’s a lot of hype surrounding Michigan football quarterback J.J. McCarthy entering the 2023 season. Jim Harbaugh said that the plan is to pass the ball more this year, but with other offenses being more pass-heavy, it would take a herculean effort to propel McCarthy into the No. 1 overall spot in the upcoming NFL draft, assuming he does depart following his junior season.

That said, ESPN took a look at all of the candidates as of current to go in that top spot, and estimated the chances that McCarthy does go No. 1 overall. ($)

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J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (2% chance to go No. 1): He is expected to throw the ball more this season after just six games with 25 or more passing attempts over 13 starts in 2022. He reads the field well, is an accurate passer and shows efficiency with play-action concepts to complement the Wolverines’ run game.

Of course, QBs in more pass-oriented systems are ahead of him at the moment, including USC’s Caleb Williams, UNC’s Drake Maye, and Texas‘ Quinn Ewers, along with other positon players such as Penn State OT Olu Fashanu and Florida State EDGE Jared Verse.

However, if McCarthy is accurate, especially downfield, and makes the type of insane throws we’ve seen him make intermittently, albeit with regularity, not throwing for 5,000 yards isn’t likely to be a disqualifier.