Dip in homicides allows Milwaukee’s clearance rate to rebound
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Three months into the new year, Milwaukee is still experiencing elevated levels of gun violence, but its clearance rate for homicides has risen back to pre-pandemic levels for the time being.
The data sample is small and does not represent a time of year when crime activity generally peaks – usually in the warmest months – but the clearance rate is among several other encouraging developments during the first quarter of the year.
Mayor Cavalier Johnson and Police Chief Jeffrey Norman discussed the figures at a press event Tuesday, where they also acknowledged several worrying trends.
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“I’m not satisfied with where we are, with the levels of crime and violence in the city, but the crime numbers tell us that we are indeed though headed in the right direction,” Johnson said.
Here are three takeaways from the press event:
Since the arrival of the pandemic in 2020, Milwaukee has endured three years of record-breaking homicides, and the sheer volume cases made it difficult for investigators to keep up.
The Milwaukee Police Department typically cleared around 75% of its homicide cases a year. Since 2020, that number has fallen to just above 50% each year.
But in 2023, that figure rests at 74% through March. Norman indicated that’s partly a result of a downturn in homicides so far this year – 39 compared to 50 at the same time in 2022 – allowing investigators more time to follow up on cases.
“What we’ve been seeing these past couple years is that you had constant issues or incidents,” he said.
Norman praised the department’s homicide unit, but he and Johnson also gave credit to the work of other community organizations who are working on outreach efforts and increasing access to stable housing.
Nonfatal shootings, however, have continued to worsen, rising 11% since 2022. Norman and Johnson attributed that to the easy access of firearms and poor conflict resolution skills. Johnson again called on state and federal lawmakers to take action.
“They should do their jobs as it relates to access to firearm,” Johnson said.
Clearance rates are calculated by the number of homicides in a given year divided by the number of cases cleared that year, no matter what year the homicide actually occurred in.
To clear a case, an individual must be arrested, charged and turned over for prosecution, according to the FBI’s crime reporting standards. Cases can also be cleared by exceptional means. For example, when a suspect has been identified but cannot be arrested because they cannot be located or have already died.
Milwaukee has also experienced a car theft epidemic – mostly targeting Kia and Hyundai models – since late 2020. Reports more than doubled in 2021, but dropped 23% the following year.
The decline has continued so far in 2023, with car thefts down another 34%. Police have announced a range of efforts to minimize thefts in recent years, including the use of bait cars and giving away steering wheel locks. But Norman again credited the work of organizations and programs such as Running Rebels and Camp Rise for engaging with youth and steering them away from such behavior.
“I will never say the Milwaukee Police Department is the only reason why we see any type of trend,” he said. “All I know is there is a lot of effort being put forth by all respective entities.”
At the same time, however, carjackings have risen 40% so far this year despite remaining flat from at least 2019 to 2022. Car thefts still occur at more than 13 times the rate of carjackings, but Norman expressed concern over the perpetrators behind them.
He said police are encountering a number of carjacking suspects who had no prior criminal history, when typically it’s the kind of act someone commits after a gradual series of events.
“That’s concerning,” he said.
Car crashes are also down
Johnson and Norman did not discuss it at length, but the data released Tuesday also showed an 11% drop in car crashes and a 19% drop in hit-and-run crashes.
The city has totaled 21 traffic fatalities through Sunday, compared to 15 in 2022, according to a separate police data set. The same set showed a 15% drop in crashes that involved injuries.
The city has turned a focus onto better safer street design to discourage reckless driving. In March, the city announced 50 traffic-calming projects in 2023.
Contact Elliot Hughes at elliot.hughes@jrn.com or 414-704-8958. Follow him on Twitter @elliothughes12.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Dip in homicides allows Milwaukee’s clearance rate to rebound