Where Vanderbilt’s NCAA Tournament resume stands entering Selection Sunday

Vanderbilt basketball is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble entering Selection Sunday. According to most analysts, the Commodores are on the wrong side of it.

Bracket Matrix, which compiles several projected brackets from experts, lists the Commodores as the third team out. They appeared in 13 of 118 projected brackets as of Saturday night. For comparison, Pittsburgh − the team listed in the field with the fewest number of brackets − appeared in 80 brackets. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi listed Vanderbilt in the “First Four Out” as of Saturday morning.

© Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean Vanderbilt forward Colin Smith (1) dribbles past Texas A&M guard Hayden Hefner (2) during the first half of a semifinal SEC Men’s Basketball Tournament game at Bridgestone Arena Saturday, March 11, 2023, in Nashville, Tenn.

In Vanderbilt’s favor is the lack of bid thieves. No team that was not projected to make an at-large won a conference tournament in a league with other at-large candidates. However, Penn State and Utah State − seen as bubble teams going into conference tournaments − each made their conference finals, likely solidifying their at-large cases.

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Good wins

Vanderbilt’s best asset is its number of quality wins, with five Quadrant 1 wins and a 5-10 record overall in those games. Most other bubble teams have four or five Quadrant 1 wins, though NC State is an outlier with a 1-6 record in such games. But the Commodores are 5-1 in Quadrant 2 games, while most other bubble teams are at or below .500 there. Tennessee is still ranked No. 4 in the NET, which helps boost the quality of Vanderbilt’s best win over the Vols in Februrary.

The Commodores beat Kentucky at Rupp Arena, a strong road win in any year. They also beat the Wildcats a second time a little over a week later in the SEC Tournament. Outside of those two wins, though, Vanderbilt has little in the way of quality wins away from home.

Metrics

The Commodores rate well in resume metrics at 39th in KPI and 58th in strength of record. But they rate less favorably in predictive analytics at 80th in KenPom, 78th in BPI and T-Rank and 58th in Sagarin. Vanderbilt has better resume metrics but worse predictive metrics than other bubble teams. While the NET has not updated since the loss to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament semifinals, the margin of defeat is likely to drop the Commodores a bit.

Bad losses

One thing that could hurt the Commodores on Selection Sunday is their bad losses. Vanderbilt has two Quadrant 3 losses to Southern Miss and LSU and a Quadrant 4 loss to Grambling State. Although Southern Miss and Grambling each won their regular-season conference titles, neither qualified for the NCAA Tournament via the automatic bids.

Some bubble teams, like Mississippi State and NC State, have one or no bad losses. Pittsburgh and Arizona State each have a Quadrant 4 loss, and the Panthers also have a Quadrant 3 loss, but neither has three losses across those quadrants. Rutgers has four Quadrant 3 losses but does not have a Quadrant 4 loss.

Strength of schedule

Vanderbilt’s strength of schedule could be seen as a point in its favor. The Commodores have the No. 24 NET strength of schedule and the No. 1 RPI strength of schedule. It could be a point in their favor that they chose to play a more difficult schedule than other bubble teams, though it will hurt that Vanderbilt went just 7-6 in non-conference play without a true marquee non-conference win.

Head-to-head

While head-to-head is not a large factor in NCAA Tournament selection, the Commodores do have head-to-head wins over other bubble teams in Mississippi State and Pittsburgh, albeit both at home. They lost to NC State at a neutral site. If Vanderbilt is perceived to be tied with one of these other teams in the eyes of the committee, head-to-head could end up being the tiebreaker.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Where Vanderbilt’s NCAA Tournament resume stands entering Selection Sunday