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Retails sales rebound, trade surplus swells – will this mean 10 out of 10 RBA interest rate rises come next Tuesday?

Data out from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) points to the resilience of the economy.

First up, retail sales rose 1.9% in January, reversing part of December’s 4% retreat. (CBA had tipped January’s sales to rise 2.1%.)

Department stores did particularly well, with turnover up 8.8% for the month, when seasonally adjusted.

On the trade front, Australia garnered a $14.1bn current account surplus in the December quarter up from a revised $753m surplus in the September quarter. (Initially, this was reported as a deficit.)

The trade surplus reached $40.9bn, the second highest on record, the ABS said, with higher commodity prices helping.

The net primary income deficit fell to $26.4bn following the record-high deficit of $30.4bn in the September quarter.

Economists believe the fatter current account surplus will add 1.1 percentage points to the December quarter’s GDP growth (and make up for the 0.8ppt subtraction from the change in inventories, we saw yesterday).

We’ll get those GDP figures tomorrow.

Both the retail sales and trade numbers will be seen as positives for an economy absorbing a record series of interest rate rises.

Prior to today’s ABS figures, investors were lifting their expectations for how high the Reserve Bank will lift its key interest rate.

They are now looking at the equivalent of four more 25 basis-point increases to come.

The first of those will almost certainly come next Tuesday.

If so, that would be 10 rises in 10 RBA meetings.