Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs prop picks: Back William Nylander to score

After shutting out the Columbus Blue Jackets on the road last night, the Toronto Maple Leafs will host Columbus on Saturday at Scotiabank Arena.

The pregame narrative: Boone Jenner is one of the more prominent shooters on the Blue Jackets, which is why we’re interested in the value on his shots prop. We also think William Nylander has a solid chance to score after he created ample chances on Friday.

Here are our Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for February 11.

Odds as of 10:34 a.m. on 02/11/2023.

Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs prop picks

Best Bet : Jenner over 2.5 shots (+100)

Toronto is generally one of the best teams in the NHL when it comes to shot prevention, but that shouldn’t make us shy away from Jenner’s modest shots prop tonight.

And when you consider what Jenner has accomplished so far this year as a shooter, the value on this line is pretty exceptional.

Through 41 games, Jenner has registered three or more shots 25 times (61.0%). And he’s averaging 3.1 shots per game on the year.

So, why is the price on this prop so good?

Again, we must point out that the Maple Leafs don’t allow a ton of shots. They’ve held opponents to 28.6 shots per 60 this season, which is the sixth-lowest rate in the NHL.

But Jenner recorded three shots against Toronto yesterday — despite missing the final five-and-a-half minutes of action due to a misconduct penalty. The value is simply too much to pass up on this line.

Key stat: Jenner has recorded three or more shots in eight of his past 12 games.

Quick picks

Nylander anytime scorer (+107): Nylander didn’t bury a goal last night, but that wasn’t for a lack of trying.

Toronto’s leading scorer (28 goals in 53 games) fired seven shots on goal and continues to drive offensive play. Since the start of January, Nylander’s 1.28 individual xG per 60 ranks seventh in the NHL.

He should create plenty of chances again tonight.

Bunting under 2.5 shots (-143): Bunting is regularly in the mix when the Maple Leafs score, but he’s not a heavy shot producer. With that in mind, we’ll shrug off this high volume of juice and fade his shots prop.

Bunting has fallen under this line in six of his past nine games, including last night, and he’s hit the under in 64.2% of games this season.

JH

Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobinSHARE:

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